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Greg Maddux : 2004

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Greg Maddux : 2004

Postby jay » Sat Oct 25, 2003 8:54 pm

I looked over the numbers and I don't understand what happened. Maybe someone smarter than me can explain it:

2002: 199 IP 194H 118/45/14 k/BB/HR ... 2.62 ERA!
2003: 218 IP 225H 124/33/24 k/BB/HR ... 3.94 ERA!

How can a few more hits, similar K rates, LESS walks, and 10 more bombs account for a spike of almost a point and a half?

I thought either bad luck or the "new" srtikezone with Questec was affecting him, but his control is just as good and his luck was the same as last year.

Any answers?

What do you expect for 2004?
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Postby orange12 » Sat Oct 25, 2003 9:51 pm

First of all, its not just a few hits more. That's 31 more hits in only 19 more innings pitched so it's a good chunk more. The only other time Maddux gave up more hits than innings pitched as a Brave was in '99. Not surprisingly, his ERA that year was 3.57, the highest in his Atlanta career up until this season. So the increased ERA this year could be directly attributed to the extra hits.

As for the reason why Maddux is giving up more hits could lie in his K/9IP ratio which dropped to a ten year low at 5.11 this season. That's pretty bad for pitcher who has a career 6.27 K/9IP. It seems as if he's just not getting that out pitch he once had. Perhaps this is linked to the Questec system you mentioned. Or he could just be getting old. In any case, I think he's having to give into hitters more and more as his strikeout pitch just isn't there. This probably explains why hitters are bombing him for a career worst 24 HRs given up.

My future expectations would most definitely be a pitcher in decline. He's no longer the 19 win monster he once was and a 15-9 3+ ERA season is in order.
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Postby Madison » Sat Oct 25, 2003 10:04 pm

I think it has to do with the strikezone. Questec or not, Maddux isn't getting that 3rd strike. He's having to let hitters put the ball in play. The more balls in play, the more hits given up, the more runs allowed. I still think Maddux will be a viable fantasy option next year. Say, 15 wins and a sub 4 era. I don't see him being the ace of a fantasy team any longer.
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Re: Greg Maddux : 2004

Postby HOOTIE » Sat Oct 25, 2003 11:00 pm

[quote="jay"]I looked over the numbers and I don't understand what happened. Maybe someone smarter than me can explain it:

2002: 199 IP 194H 118/45/14 k/BB/HR ... 2.62 ERA!
2003: 218 IP 225H 124/33/24 k/BB/HR ... 3.94 ERA!

How can a few more hits, similar K rates, LESS walks, and 10 more bombs account for a spike of almost a point and a half?

I thought either bad luck or the "new" srtikezone with Questec was affecting him, but his control is just as good and his luck was the same as last year.

Any answers? [quote]

How do you know his luck was just as good? Was it? I dont have his 03 numbers yet, but his 02 season was green with luck. A side note, a 10 hr increase, nearly double of previous year, is a factor in era increase.

(BPI) Base Performance Indicators were his lowest since 1990. That is concerning because of age. BPI for pitchers are

control (bb/9)
dominance (k/9)
command (k/bb)
oppositon oba (OOB)
hit rate on balls in play (H%)
strand rate (S%)
expected era (xERA)

Maddux 02 bpis and compared to his last 5 seasons

control (increased to 2.0, 5 year low)
dominance (decreased to 5.3, 5 year low)
command ( decreased to 2.6, 5 year low
OOB (257, 2nd worst in 5 years)
H% (29%) 30% is average, a variance of 3% can effect era
S% (80%) at 70% a pitcher has trouble with era, 75% is around the norm, 80% guys will have artificially low eras.
xERA (3.46)

As you can see, his numbers (BPI), were his worst since 90. His strand rate helped make his era look better then it should have been.
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Postby jay » Sat Oct 25, 2003 11:07 pm

So you buy the fact that he's declining? What do you think about 2004 Hootie?
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Postby HOOTIE » Sat Oct 25, 2003 11:31 pm

jay wrote:So you buy the fact that he's declining? What do you think about 2004 Hootie?


Yes i buy it. Without seeing his 03 BPIS, i think a 4 era is probably close.
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Re: Greg Maddux : 2004

Postby Madison » Sun Oct 26, 2003 12:03 am

HOOTIE wrote:
jay wrote:I looked over the numbers and I don't understand what happened. Maybe someone smarter than me can explain it:

2002: 199 IP 194H 118/45/14 k/BB/HR ... 2.62 ERA!
2003: 218 IP 225H 124/33/24 k/BB/HR ... 3.94 ERA!

How can a few more hits, similar K rates, LESS walks, and 10 more bombs account for a spike of almost a point and a half?

I thought either bad luck or the "new" srtikezone with Questec was affecting him, but his control is just as good and his luck was the same as last year.

Any answers?


How do you know his luck was just as good? Was it? I dont have his 03 numbers yet, but his 02 season was green with luck. A side note, a 10 hr increase, nearly double of previous year, is a factor in era increase.

(BPI) Base Performance Indicators were his lowest since 1990. That is concerning because of age. BPI for pitchers are

control (bb/9)
dominance (k/9)
command (k/bb)
oppositon oba (OOB)
hit rate on balls in play (H%)
strand rate (S%)
expected era (xERA)

Maddux 02 bpis and compared to his last 5 seasons

control (increased to 2.0, 5 year low)
dominance (decreased to 5.3, 5 year low)
command ( decreased to 2.6, 5 year low
OOB (257, 2nd worst in 5 years)
H% (29%) 30% is average, a variance of 3% can effect era
S% (80%) at 70% a pitcher has trouble with era, 75% is around the norm, 80% guys will have artificially low eras.
xERA (3.46)

As you can see, his numbers (BPI), were his worst since 90. His strand rate helped make his era look better then it should have been.


Once again, HOOTIE comes up with some great numbers. ;-D Nice job HOOTIE and thanks for sharing with all of us. ;-D
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Postby wrveres » Sun Oct 26, 2003 12:13 am

Lets not forget that when he was getting shelled ... They just left him out there.... That contributed alot to high ERA. His April alone was awful. But it had nothing to do with control. He only walked one batter in all of July. I like to look at the trends, In the second half, July, August, September he went 10-3 with a 1.10 ratio and a 3.03 ERA .. :-) I expect maddux to win 15 ... again, next year. His ERA will be alot closer to 3.00, than it will be to 4.00
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Postby Madison » Sun Oct 26, 2003 12:16 am

wrveres wrote:His ERA will be alot closer to 3.00, than it will be to 4.00


Hmmm......I was thinking 3.50 at best. More like 3.60-3.75 range. Hmmmm...... :-? I already gave him the 15 wins. :-)
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Postby wrveres » Sun Oct 26, 2003 1:37 am

Madison wrote:
wrveres wrote:His ERA will be alot closer to 3.00, than it will be to 4.00


Hmmm......I was thinking 3.50 at best. More like 3.60-3.75 range. Hmmmm...... :-? I already gave him the 15 wins. :-)


He got shelled early in the season. look at his second half stats?

and he started more games than any other pitcher in the NL this season. Only Halladay tied him with 36 in the AL. Now any way you slice it, GS are important to wins......

OLD....???? 36 GS ..
3.03 ERA and a 1.1 ratio in the second half... hmmm :-o
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