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Geopolitics is fun! (Iran on a precipice edition)

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Geopolitics is fun! (Iran on a precipice edition)

Postby RugbyD » Wed Jan 24, 2007 10:49 am

A situation worth knowing something about

http://www.msnbc.msn.com/id/16772560/from/ET/

[quote]NBC: Saudis waging an oil war on Iran?
Falling fuel costs probably not a coincidence, oil traders say
ANALYSIS
By Robert Windrem
Investigative producer
Updated: 2:03 p.m. CT Jan 23, 2007

Oil traders and others believe that the Saudi decision to let the price of oil tumble has more to do with Iran than economics.

Their belief has been reinforced in recent days as the Saudi oil minister has steadfastly refused calls for a special meeting of OPEC and announced that the nation is going to increase its production, which will send the price down even farther.

Saudi Oil Minister Ibrahim al-Naimi even said during a recent trip to India that oil prices are headed in the "right direction."

Not for the Iranians.

Moreover, the traders believe the Saudis are not doing this alone, that the other Sunni-dominated oil producing countries and the U.S. are working together, believing it will hurt majority-Shiite Iran economically and create a domestic crisis for Iranian President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad, whose popularity at home is on the wane. The traders also believe (with good reason) that the U.S. is trying to tighten the screws on Iran financially at the same time the Saudis are reducing the Islamic Republic’s oil revenues.

For the Saudis, who fear Iran’s religious, geopolitical and nuclear aspirations, the decision to lower the price of oil has a number of benefits, the biggest being to deprive Iran of hard currency. It also may create unrest in a country that is its rival on a number of levels and permits the Saudis to show the U.S. that military action may not be necessary.

The Saudis firmly and publicly deny this, saying it’s all about economics. Not everyone believes them.

“If under normal circumstances, the price of oil was falling this dramatically [17% in the last few months], Saudi Arabia would have already called for a special OPEC meeting,â€
TennCare rocks!!!!
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Postby Madison » Wed Jan 24, 2007 11:05 am

Nice read. ;-D

Is there a negative to this anywhere? From what I read, everything is good, but there's got to be a drawback somewhere... :-?
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Postby slomo007 » Wed Jan 24, 2007 11:12 am

Madison wrote:Nice read. ;-D

Is there a negative to this anywhere? From what I read, everything is good, but there's got to be a drawback somewhere... :-?


If Iran gets too poor, they'll get desperate. Iran has nukes.
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Postby StlSluggers » Wed Jan 24, 2007 11:13 am

Man, I remember the gas wars between stations when I was a kid, but this is something on a completely different level. Either way, cheaper gas!

Nice to see the rest of Arabia sticking it to the Iranians. ;-D

BTW, the Chinese colonels that wrote Unrestricted Warfare sure knew what they were talking about.
Last edited by StlSluggers on Wed Jan 24, 2007 12:01 pm, edited 1 time in total.
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Postby Madison » Wed Jan 24, 2007 11:14 am

slomo007 wrote:
Madison wrote:Nice read. ;-D

Is there a negative to this anywhere? From what I read, everything is good, but there's got to be a drawback somewhere... :-?


If Iran gets too poor, they'll get desperate. Iran has nukes.


So they would rather die than disarm the nukes? The minute they shoot off a nuke, they are dead. I don't see them attacking anyone with nukes, but I've been wrong before, and I could be wrong here too. :-?
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Yes doctor, there will be blood.....
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Postby StlSluggers » Wed Jan 24, 2007 11:14 am

slomo007 wrote:
Madison wrote:Nice read. ;-D

Is there a negative to this anywhere? From what I read, everything is good, but there's got to be a drawback somewhere... :-?


If Iran gets too poor, they'll get desperate. Iran has nukes.

I think they are trying to get/make nukes, and this move is designed to undercut the funding they're using to get them, right?
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Postby Big Pimpin » Wed Jan 24, 2007 11:18 am

Great read. Thanks D. ;-D
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Postby slomo007 » Wed Jan 24, 2007 11:40 am

StlSluggers wrote:
slomo007 wrote:
Madison wrote:Nice read. ;-D

Is there a negative to this anywhere? From what I read, everything is good, but there's got to be a drawback somewhere... :-?


If Iran gets too poor, they'll get desperate. Iran has nukes.

I think they are trying to get/make nukes, and this move is designed to undercut the funding they're using to get them, right?


I thought they already had some, that we gave them in the '70s. :-?

I'm not sure, to be honest, I don't consider myself a foreign affairs expert.

I do think the story is kind of funny, and is great for us in the short term, I don't think I like the idea long term as we don't need another 3rd world country with the ability to cause mass destruction out of desperation.
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Postby acsguitar » Wed Jan 24, 2007 11:50 am

Iran will have 1/100th of the rest of the worlds nukes. Its just a personal security thing
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Postby RugbyD » Wed Jan 24, 2007 11:58 am

slomo007 wrote:
Madison wrote:Nice read. ;-D

Is there a negative to this anywhere? From what I read, everything is good, but there's got to be a drawback somewhere... :-?


If Iran gets too poor, they'll get desperate. Iran has nukes.

they don't have nukes yet. they don't even have nuclear electricity generation capabilities yet, but they are close to that.
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