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Two Up, Two Down - Center Field Edition

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Two Up, Two Down - Center Field Edition

Postby WebHamster » Mon Jan 22, 2007 12:56 pm

This thread contains comments on Brad Grady's Article "Two Up, Two Down - Center Field Edition", which was posted in the Cafe's Articles section on January 22, 2007. The full article can be read here.
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Postby raiders_umpire » Mon Jan 22, 2007 1:02 pm

Dang, I see Pimpin doesn't speak Southern, as he edited about half of it. :-b



Oh well, it is still one heckuva piece. ;-)
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Postby EvSolo » Mon Jan 22, 2007 6:41 pm

i wonder which players the writer is talking about when he says to pass up ichiro in the 4th and grab someone who will steal 40 or so bases later in the draft.

Reyes 64- hes gone in the first
Crawford 58 - gone in the first
Soriano 41 - gone in the first
Hanley 51- gone by the 4th
Figgins 52- not lasting past 4th in most leagues
Pierre- 58- not lasting past 4th
F. Lopez 44- he can be had past 5th in 12 team if lucky and no MI spot

Furcal, Rollins, Jeter,......all gone.

So we should pass up ichiro who is a stud in 5x5 and HOPE to land a Pod, D Roberts, Freel, Tavarez, Lofton etc... all of whom do not have any considerable advantage over ichiro in other countable categories (HR, RBI) and who have a much easier chance of completely tanking than ichiro?

And Ichiro in the 4th is an absolute STEAL. He is also in a contract year...how could you possibly be down on this guy?

Anyone isnt worth their value if they are drafted too early, you could say that about any player
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Postby raiders_umpire » Tue Jan 23, 2007 10:43 am

EvSolo wrote:i wonder which players the writer is talking about when he says to pass up ichiro in the 4th and grab someone who will steal 40 or so bases later in the draft.





Well since I am the writer, I will tell you who to grab for some later round steals.


Brian Roberts-probably around the 10th round
Ryan Freel-probably around the 15th round
Felipe Lopez-quite a bit later then Ichiro, near the 7th round
Dave Roberts-15th round
Willy Taveras-15th round
Chris Duffy-20th round


And what about 3 stats in 5x5 roto makes Ichiro a stud. His steals are OK, but not over the top, his runs scored are above average, and his average of .320 is above average, but those 3 combined do not make him a top 40 pick.
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Postby StlSluggers » Wed Jan 24, 2007 11:44 am

raiders_umpire wrote:And what about 3 stats in 5x5 roto makes Ichiro a stud. His steals are OK, but not over the top, his runs scored are above average, and his average of .320 is above average, but those 3 combined do not make him a top 40 pick.

2006 Value - $35.94 (18th hitter)
2005 Value - $35.88 (17th hitter)
2004 Value - $47.79 (4th hitter)

Players who have been over $30 each of those three years:
Ichiro
ARod
Ortiz
Vlad
Crawford
Pujols

I'm just sayin'... :-)

Seriously, though, I think it's easy to underestimate his average if you don't take into consideration that the guy gets ~700 ABs per year. That's not a normal .320 BA. That's one-and-a-half player's batting .320.
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Postby EvSolo » Wed Jan 24, 2007 2:33 pm

StlSluggers wrote:
raiders_umpire wrote:And what about 3 stats in 5x5 roto makes Ichiro a stud. His steals are OK, but not over the top, his runs scored are above average, and his average of .320 is above average, but those 3 combined do not make him a top 40 pick.

2006 Value - $35.94 (18th hitter)
2005 Value - $35.88 (17th hitter)
2004 Value - $47.79 (4th hitter)

Players who have been over $30 each of those three years:
Ichiro
ARod
Ortiz
Vlad
Crawford
Pujols

I'm just sayin'... :-)

Seriously, though, I think it's easy to underestimate his average if you don't take into consideration that the guy gets ~700 ABs per year. That's not a normal .320 BA. That's one-and-a-half player's batting .320.


I didnt even bother giving the writer a response to the question you answered. Once i got to the bottom and read "he is not a top 40 pick" i knew it wasnt even worth giving him a response. that is simply a joke. not top 40??? FORTY???!!! Please.
fwiw his ADP according to mock draft central is 22. Raiders Umpire, you have to be the only person in the fantasy universe who believes ichiro is not a top 40 pick, and its not because "everyone" overvalues him.

most of the players you suggest grabbing after passing up on ichiro are 1 category players who do not do anything else exceptionally well and could easily dive into the tank and lose playing time. and waiting so long to grab one of these guys will only make you reach for them. why not go with the rock solid consistent stud (yes, stud) that ichiro is.

His steals are OK, but not over the top


He was seventh in the majors with 45....how is that just "OK"?[/quote]
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Postby StlSluggers » Wed Jan 24, 2007 4:20 pm

In his defense, it's easier to find a group of other guys that can get you average & steals without hurting your power too badly as opposed to finding power that doesn't hurt your average & steals.
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Postby EvSolo » Wed Jan 24, 2007 4:34 pm

StlSluggers wrote:In his defense, it's easier to find a group of other guys that can get you average & steals without hurting your power too badly as opposed to finding power that doesn't hurt your average & steals.


Maybe the players who steal 15-20 bases, but not the players who will "steal you 40 bases or so." None of them have power (at least not greater than ichiro's). Not the pod's, freel's, lofton's, tavarez's, duffy's etc...
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Postby Madison » Wed Jan 24, 2007 4:45 pm

Oh why not, I'll toss my thoughts into this as well. B-)

I won't go so far as to say Ichiro is overrated, but he is currently being drafted in most leagues/mocks based on several optimistic things. 2004's stat line and him being a free agent at the end of the year are the two most common things people are looking at. Both are misleading, as the contract year theory has been proven to be a myth year after year, and only looking at one year of stats is flawed in itself as well. So neither of those is a reason to grab Ichiro early.

When drafting to win, who wants to take someone who actually hurts you in certain catagories early? Would anyone take Adam Dunn in the 2nd or maybe even 3rd round in a league that uses batting average as a catagory? Of course not. His .245 career average is a killer in most competitive leagues, even though his 40+ homers are very nice to have. Ichiro not only costs you in home runs, he also costs you in RBI. By him having such low numbers in each of those TWO catagories, you've got to make up the difference somewhere else in the draft. Is it worth it to take Ichiro early? Not an easy decision for most people.

Ask yourself this.....Would you draft a 20 game winner with 200 K's, but a 4.75 ERA and a 1.45 WHIP early? Of course not. The ratios are too hard to make up.

I'd much rather get a proven stud who won't hurt me anywhere in the early rounds, so I'm one of the ones who flat won't draft Ichiro in rounds 1 or 2. Granted, late in the 3rd, or in the fourth, it would really depend on the draft, current needs, who's availiable, my co-managers, etc, but I admit passing him up in the 4th would probably prove tough, and I might not be able to do it.

I believe Raiders was simply trying to point out that Ichiro will go earier than he should in most drafts, and to not be the person who jumps early on him. Know his real value, know your team needs, be aware of not only the benefits of what Ichrio brings to your team, but also the disadvantages that you will have to draft accordingly for. I don't see a real need to roast him over the coals for this. It's simply to get people to think and consider all the options when drafting, and there's nothing wrong with that at all. B-)
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Postby EvSolo » Wed Jan 24, 2007 5:09 pm

yea my apologies i didnt mean to roast him, but ichiro is without a doubt a top 40 pick. he isnt hurting your team when he earns over $30 on a consistent basis, year after year after year. he might "hurt" you in hr and rbi's but those are by far easier to get later in a draft than a great avg over tons of ab's and great sb's and runs. its why he earns $30 dollars every year. and the fact that he helps you so much in avg you can grab an adam dunn earlier if you need power. you dont need balanced players, just a balanced team. if ichiro is there in the 3rd round you grab him without question. That is a great pick. I understand having reservations taking him in the second, but saying he's not a top forty pick is just wrong IMO

Raiders: didnt mean to rip ya guy....i apologize.
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