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Better first round choice: Utley vs. Cabrera

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Re: Better first round choice: Utley vs. Cabrera

Postby skapur20 » Fri Jul 27, 2007 4:03 pm

Snakes Gould wrote::-? the title and all the talk is "who is a better first round choice"? its not real baseball skills.

and ill argue and say utley is still better. cabrera and utley are about a wash in every hitting category except hr's and sb's. utley can get some steals and m-cab will hit about 10 more hr's a season, but utley's defense is far far superior than m-cab's.


now if your gonna go off and talk about position scarcity and all that jazz, then your gonna have to take in accord the way someone drafts or how the draft goes to see who got better value with their 1st round pick. Im sorry, but thats just the way it goes. To see whose got the better 1st round pick your gonna have to weigh it like..

Cabrera and 2b versus Utley and 3b.

if the margin between Utley and the 2b is greater than Cabrera and the 3b, they Utley was the more valuable pick. If its visa-versa then Cabrera was the more valuable pick.


there you go my friend. read the whole post next time. ;-D
ummm lets go angels? :)
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Re: Better first round choice: Utley vs. Cabrera

Postby talan37 » Fri Jul 27, 2007 4:19 pm

We are talking about fantasy baseball here, so the only relevance is the stats they put up.

Last two years + up to now in the season:
Miggy 278 runs
Utley 303 runs
Utley +30


Miggy 301 Rbi
Utley 289 Rbi
Miggy +12

Miggy 82 hr
Utley 77 hr
Miggy +5

Miggy .323/.339/.330 Avg
Utley .291/.309/.336 Avg
Miggy +.032/+.30/-.06

Miggy 10 Sb
Utley 38 Sb
Utley + 28

So miggy has slightly more power and slightly more Rbi. While Utley has moderately more runs and a decent amount more sb.
I would rather have the 30runs and 28sb, than 5hr and 12rbi in a vacuum, although for the first two years the average difference would probably lean it very slightly towards miggy. Although Chase seems to be improving on his average.

Regardless of which side of that equation you would prefer, miggy is definitely not "hands down" better, and to think so is just ignoring the statistics...
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Re: Better first round choice: Utley vs. Cabrera

Postby Yoda » Fri Jul 27, 2007 4:39 pm

talan37 wrote:We are talking about fantasy baseball here, so the only relevance is the stats they put up.

Last two years + up to now in the season:
Miggy 278 runs
Utley 303 runs
Utley +30


Miggy 301 Rbi
Utley 289 Rbi
Miggy +12

Miggy 82 hr
Utley 77 hr
Miggy +5

Miggy .323/.339/.330 Avg
Utley .291/.309/.336 Avg
Miggy +.032/+.30/-.06

Miggy 10 Sb
Utley 38 Sb
Utley + 28

So miggy has slightly more power and slightly more Rbi. While Utley has moderately more runs and a decent amount more sb.
I would rather have the 30runs and 28sb, than 5hr and 12rbi in a vacuum, although for the first two years the average difference would probably lean it very slightly towards miggy. Although Chase seems to be improving on his average.

Regardless of which side of that equation you would prefer, miggy is definitely not "hands down" better, and to think so is just ignoring the statistics...


You forgot one important stat... Age. Utley is in his peak and MCab is 3 years from his. One could only hope MCab will be as good as Utley in 4 years. ;-7
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Re: Better first round choice: Utley vs. Cabrera

Postby gws226 » Fri Jul 27, 2007 4:48 pm

Yoda wrote:
hot4tx wrote:
Yoda wrote:With all this talk about Utley's advantage in position, you'd think every one of his owners would be in first place by a mile.


Yes that makes sense because one player can carry every team in fantasy baseball. :-[

So if you had two players that put up (and will continue to put up) exactly identical numbers and that one of them played 2B while the other played 1B you would consider them of even value for fantasy? If not then you do recognize that there is such a thing as positional advantage.


You just proved my point. Picking Utley first doesn't give you a significant advantage like some of you are saying because you win your season by picking up guys like Upton, Phillips (which is what I did) in the later rounds. Plus picking the right guys for the other positions you need to fill.


You have a good point, but I don't think you are considering the street value of your players in your decision making. You made a great move to grab Phillips. He was just as likely to suprise as he was to go bust on you. What do you then?

Here is a great example of why owners should of targeted Utley as opposed to MCab with their early picks....

The league: 10T Roto/ modified keeper... its pretty standard, and a classic example of pretty typical league.

Team 1: 2B Utley, 3B Glaus
Team 2: 2B Maztsu, 3B Lowell, Iwamura
Team 3: 2B Kinsler, Ugga, Chone, Theriot 3B; Beltre, Youklis, M.Reynolds
Team 4: 2B: F. Sanchez 3B: Wright
Team 5: 2B, Cano 3B: MCab, Zimmerman, Casey Blake
Team 6: 2B, Aaron Hill, Kendrick (DL); 3B Atkins, Braun
Team 7: 2B: Hudson, Lugo 3B: ARam, Gordon
Team 8: 2B: Brian Roberts 3B; Chipper, Ty Wigginton, B. Hall
Team 9: 2B B.Phillips, 3B Upton, Teahan
Team 10: 2B Kent, K. Johnson 3B Arod.

For the sake of the argument, Im going strickly on position availability, and not noting some 2B eligbles are regular starters at other positions for the team. (ie: Upton, Kelly Johnson, Chone etc etc)
This league has 3 teams (1,4, 10) that are risk taking on 3B w/ strong everyday starters.
This league has 5 teams (1, 2, 4, 5, 8, 9) that are risk taking on 2B.

So half the league is risking not having a starting player tomorrow if they lose a 2B tonight. Why is that?

Here is why....
Current FAs 3B
Rolen, Chavez, Nomar, Inge, Josh Fields

Current FAs 2B
Weeks (WW) Felipe Lopez, Josh Barfield, Iguchi

This is why I (and many) are forced to overly invest in lean positions like 2B this year. You've got the perfect idea going out and grabbing later round/ WW pickups, but I prefer to concentrate on deeper positions like 3B and OF to take my chances on because the talent pool is deeper there, and likelyhood of finding 2008s brandon Phillips are better there then they ever will be at 2B.

In this league, the Utley owner is absolutely screwed. If Utley had played any other position at least there would of been someone half decent to grab to plug into the slot for the next month.

BTW... I own Team 6, Kendrick, so I know the feeling :~(
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Re: Better first round choice: Utley vs. Cabrera

Postby TheA'sFatLeadoffMan » Fri Jul 27, 2007 5:00 pm

Power comes with age and at this point I think most people like myself are hoping for the year Miggy busts out his 40+ HR potential and permanently ends this discussion.
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Re: Better first round choice: Utley vs. Cabrera

Postby Yoda » Fri Jul 27, 2007 5:22 pm

Also, it is harder to replace someone like Utley when he goes down. If you draft a couple of middling 2B towards the middle to late rounds, then you have an option if one of them does not work out or goes down (see my Phillips, Upton example). When you draft a stud like Utley, you tend to ignore that position and do not focus on getting a good back up for him. Just another way of looking at it.
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Re: Better first round choice: Utley vs. Cabrera

Postby The Cow » Fri Jul 27, 2007 5:45 pm

Well Utley broke his that stinks up this whole argument as we will never know who was the better 1st round pick for this year NON-KEEPER. Up until this point Utley was having the better year or at the very least as good a year as Miggy. I say the better year just by the stats when you throw in position scarcity well, Utley hands down. Yes one could draft a breakout 2B, but one could also draft a breakout 3B so that point is moot. In a keeper I would take Miggy for this year Utley and this thread was about THIS year not next. So when someone points out that Utley is at his peak age and Miggy is 3 years away that is a reason TO draft Utley over Miggy, not the other way around, unless of course stats for 3 years down the road somehow count for this year, but they DON'T. So this argument ends here with Utley having the better stats and thus the better year. Unless you factored in that Utley would break his hand in July on draft day, if you did kudos to you. As for me in my main league I was unable to get either as both were kept. I drafted both 2nd and 3rd late picking up some guy named Chipper and some guy named Phillips. Been a good year. But yep utley wins as far as I am concerned. Yeah me, I'm smarter than Yoda!!!

Rock on,

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Re: Better first round choice: Utley vs. Cabrera

Postby The Cow » Fri Jul 27, 2007 5:51 pm

Yoda wrote:Also, it is harder to replace someone like Utley when he goes down. If you draft a couple of middling 2B towards the middle to late rounds, then you have an option if one of them does not work out or goes down (see my Phillips, Upton example). When you draft a stud like Utley, you tend to ignore that position and do not focus on getting a good back up for him. Just another way of looking at it.


Well ya do realize that if Miggy breaks his hand his production will be hard to replace with a waiver wire talent. Because when you draft a stud like Miggy you tend to ignore that position as well. And in any league finding talent at any position in late July on the wire is a tough task, though it can be done. One could have drafted a Chipper/Braun combo and done just as well as the Phillips/Upton combo. Face it yoda you were WRONG and DEAL with it.

Utley was the better pick and the Cow is smarter than the Yoda.

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Re: Better first round choice: Utley vs. Cabrera

Postby Yoda » Fri Jul 27, 2007 6:01 pm

The Cow wrote:
Yoda wrote:Also, it is harder to replace someone like Utley when he goes down. If you draft a couple of middling 2B towards the middle to late rounds, then you have an option if one of them does not work out or goes down (see my Phillips, Upton example). When you draft a stud like Utley, you tend to ignore that position and do not focus on getting a good back up for him. Just another way of looking at it.


Well ya do realize that if Miggy breaks his hand his production will be hard to replace with a waiver wire talent. Because when you draft a stud like Miggy you tend to ignore that position as well. And in any league finding talent at any position in late July on the wire is a tough task, though it can be done. One could have drafted a Chipper/Braun combo and done just as well as the Phillips/Upton combo. Face it yoda you were WRONG and DEAL with it.

Utley was the better pick and the Cow is smarter than the Yoda.

The Cow


But didn't you argue that finding a 3B off waivers is easier than 2B? You can't have the cake and eat it too.
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Re: Better first round choice: Utley vs. Cabrera

Postby tgalv » Fri Jul 27, 2007 6:02 pm

The Cow wrote:Well ya do realize that if Miggy breaks his hand his production will be hard to replace with a waiver wire talent. Because when you draft a stud like Miggy you tend to ignore that position as well. And in any league finding talent at any position in late July on the wire is a tough task, though it can be done. One could have drafted a Chipper/Braun combo and done just as well as the Phillips/Upton combo. Face it yoda you were WRONG and DEAL with it.

Utley was the better pick
The Cow

no kidding. it happens. give it a break with the excuses and other bs.
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