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Better first round choice: Utley vs. Cabrera

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Re: Better first round choice: Utley vs. Cabrera

Postby talan37 » Fri Jul 27, 2007 11:04 am

Utley does lead the league in HBP ;-D(by 3) But its still a freak occurence.
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Re: Better first round choice: Utley vs. Cabrera

Postby akula » Fri Jul 27, 2007 11:31 am

exactly. because of position scarcity, it is harder to find a replacement for Utley if he gets hurt....so Cabrera over Utley
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Re: Better first round choice: Utley vs. Cabrera

Postby Yoda » Fri Jul 27, 2007 11:39 am

With all this talk about Utley's advantage in position, you'd think every one of his owners would be in first place by a mile.
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Postby Fantasy Man 27 » Fri Jul 27, 2007 11:44 am

Okay, here's my take on the situation. Miguel Cabrera was, and still is the better first round choice. My reason for saying this is how deep second base is. While it's nice to have the top, premier player at second base (Utley), look how many people are running away with their leagues thanks to late round picks from their second baseman.

Top 12 2B:
Chase Utley (3)
Brandon Phillips (22)
Brian Roberts (39)
Dan Uggla (46)
BJ Upton (83)
Jeff Kent (87)
Placido Polanco (89)
Kelly Johnson (103)
Chone Figgins (113)
Aaron Hill (123)
Robinson Cano (141)
Ty Wigginton (165)

As you can see, only four out of those twelve players cost you a top 7 round pick (Utley, Cano, Roberts, Figgins)

Top 12 3B
Alex Rodriguez (1)
Miguel Cabrera (16)
David Wright (21)
Chipper Jones (37)
Mike Lowell (59)
Ryan Braun (64)
Aramis Ramirez (77)
BJ Upton (83)
Adrian Beltre (104)
Kevin Youkilis (105)
Chone Figgins (113)
Casey Blake (132)

As you can see, six 3B cost you a top 7 round pick. Second base is still more deep than that as players such as Ian Kinsler and Rickie Weeks have been riddled with injuries. My point is you could have picked up a second baseman in the very late rounds and recieved top 100 statistics, where as with 3B you had to spend a top pick in order to get high production. I hope this makes sense...it makes sense to me but it's hard to put my thoughts on a keyboard ;-)
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Re: Better first round choice: Utley vs. Cabrera

Postby talan37 » Fri Jul 27, 2007 12:16 pm

I see your point, but you can't at draft time make a decision based on how many guys theoretically might break out. Phillips is 22 now, but I doubt there were many people spending a 2nd round pick on him...
Name/Cbs ADP
Uggla 87.
Phillips 156
Roberts 80

These 3 guys are significantly outperforming there projections and adp.

As are
Lowell 221
Chipper 123
braun undrafted
upton 248
Youkilis 175

these 5 guys are even more significantly outperforming there projections and adp.

I certainly see your logic, but you can get lucky with a late round pick at any position. I think the addition of Phillips and Uggla so far does increase the depth at 2B. But I also think you can get value at 3B just as easily as 2B by going deep in the draft, its just a matter of getting lucky on someone who was "undervalued" or who is having a year that is statistically better than his projection.
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Re: Better first round choice: Utley vs. Cabrera

Postby hot4tx » Fri Jul 27, 2007 2:29 pm

Yoda wrote:With all this talk about Utley's advantage in position, you'd think every one of his owners would be in first place by a mile.


Yes that makes sense because one player can carry every team in fantasy baseball. :-[

So if you had two players that put up (and will continue to put up) exactly identical numbers and that one of them played 2B while the other played 1B you would consider them of even value for fantasy? If not then you do recognize that there is such a thing as positional advantage.

[quote]look how many people are running away with their leagues thanks to late round picks from their second baseman.[/quote]

...and this is a nonsensical argument. You can't ASSUME that you are going to get the "breakout player" every time. Obviously if everyone KNEW these 2Bs would break out they would have been drafted earlier. And if you knew exactly what was going to happen you would win every league, quit your job and become a pro gambler. How about last season when someone could have just spent a last round pick on Garret, and he would put up better numbers than Miggy? Or where you could have spent a fifth pick and gotten Howard? No need to draft 1B earlier than the 5th round ever if you can just spend a 5th round pick and get one of the top players. You can't look at it that way. If you spent a 1st round pick on Miggy so far you've gotten the 3rd best 3B. And many people rated them that way prior to the season so this isn't just hindsight. If you spent it on Chase you knew you got the best 2B, and that you have an advantage over everyone else in your league because they guy you have playing 2B is putting up better numbers than their guy.
Last edited by hot4tx on Fri Jul 27, 2007 2:37 pm, edited 1 time in total.
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Re: Better first round choice: Utley vs. Cabrera

Postby Yoda » Fri Jul 27, 2007 2:34 pm

hot4tx wrote:
Yoda wrote:With all this talk about Utley's advantage in position, you'd think every one of his owners would be in first place by a mile.


Yes that makes sense because one player can carry every team in fantasy baseball. :-[

So if you had two players that put up (and will continue to put up) exactly identical numbers and that one of them played 2B while the other played 1B you would consider them of even value for fantasy? If not then you do recognize that there is such a thing as positional advantage.


You just proved my point. Picking Utley first doesn't give you a significant advantage like some of you are saying because you win your season by picking up guys like Upton, Phillips (which is what I did) in the later rounds. Plus picking the right guys for the other positions you need to fill.
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Re: Better first round choice: Utley vs. Cabrera

Postby Snakes Gould » Fri Jul 27, 2007 3:53 pm

you can make that argument at any position. look at ryan braun (i love you ryan braun). if you picked up braun and already had utley you would probably outproduce cabrera and phillips
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Re: Better first round choice: Utley vs. Cabrera

Postby skapur20 » Fri Jul 27, 2007 3:53 pm

if this is an choice between whose the better player.

hands down its miguel cabrera and you guys are kidding yourselves if your arguing in favor of Utley being the great.


now if your gonna go off and talk about position scarcity and all that jazz, then your gonna have to take in accord the way someone drafts or how the draft goes to see who got better value with their 1st round pick. Im sorry, but thats just the way it goes. To see whose got the better 1st round pick your gonna have to weigh it like..

Cabrera and 2b versus Utley and 3b.

if the margin between Utley and the 2b is greater than Cabrera and the 3b, they Utley was the more valuable pick. If its visa-versa then Cabrera was the more valuable pick.


but again.. if were talking pure baseball skill and whose the better player. HANDS DOWN MIGUEL CABRERA no doubt about it
ummm lets go angels? :)
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Re: Better first round choice: Utley vs. Cabrera

Postby Snakes Gould » Fri Jul 27, 2007 4:00 pm

:-? the title and all the talk is "who is a better first round choice"? its not real baseball skills.

and ill argue and say utley is still better. cabrera and utley are about a wash in every hitting category except hr's and sb's. utley can get some steals and m-cab will hit about 10 more hr's a season, but utley's defense is far far superior than m-cab's.
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