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Is Gange a legit 1st rounder?

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Postby shortsavage » Sun Oct 26, 2003 3:42 pm

HOOTIE wrote:Closers are the most inconsistent position in bb.


HOOTIE, I love the stats you provide and I think you usually have great thoughts. But, your statement above, compared to your overall message, is a bit of a contridiction!

If closers are the most inconsistent position in baseball, why not go with the one guy who can perform there consistantly?! Are you trying to make the point that Gagne is going to suffer a complete melt down?! That is the only arguement I could see for defending your opinion. And it would be VERY tough to argue, given the two record breaking seasons he has just put up. I suppose you could say he would be inneffective if they took his steroids away, I'll give you that one ;-) .

Hehe, I wish I will in a keeper league with some of you guys. Gagne is a keeper league steal anytime after the 1st round. Perhaps it would take a few dominating fantasy seasons, on mine and Gagne's parts, before I could grind that into all of your heads }:-) .
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Postby Arlo » Sun Oct 26, 2003 4:22 pm

At the risk of drawing shortsavage's wrath, I'd be more inclined to pick Gagne early in a single-season league than in a keeper... ;-)
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Postby HOOTIE » Sun Oct 26, 2003 4:30 pm

StAlEfReNcHfRi91 wrote:its was pujols, arod, bonds, soriano, prior, then GAGNE...then beltran and vlad...i'm on the clock right now...any help of who to pick (btw, its a keeper league)



Pedro is a steal for the 9th pick. Helton and Nomar would be too. Gagne and Bonds were bad picks this early. Bonds is retiring in 2 years.
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Postby DK » Sun Oct 26, 2003 4:31 pm

HOOTIE wrote:
StAlEfReNcHfRi91 wrote:its was pujols, arod, bonds, soriano, prior, then GAGNE...then beltran and vlad...i'm on the clock right now...any help of who to pick (btw, its a keeper league)



Pedro is a steal for the 9th pick. Helton and Nomar would be too. Gagne and Bonds were bad picks this early. Bonds is retiring in 2 years.


helton or pedro, IMO. Nomar you might be able to get if it's a 10tm, but no guarantees in a 12tm.
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Postby HOOTIE » Sun Oct 26, 2003 4:48 pm

shortsavage wrote:
HOOTIE wrote:Closers are the most inconsistent position in bb.


HOOTIE, I love the stats you provide and I think you usually have great thoughts. But, your statement above, compared to your overall message, is a bit of a contridiction!

If closers are the most inconsistent position in baseball, why not go with the one guy who can perform there consistantly?! Are you trying to make the point that Gagne is going to suffer a complete melt down?! That is the only arguement I could see for defending your opinion. And it would be VERY tough to argue, given the two record breaking seasons he has just put up. I suppose you could say he would be inneffective if they took his steroids away, I'll give you that one ;-) .

Hehe, I wish I will in a keeper league with some of you guys. Gagne is a keeper league steal anytime after the 1st round. Perhaps it would take a few dominating fantasy seasons, on mine and Gagne's parts, before I could grind that into all of your heads }:-) .


SHORT Thanks for the compliment. No i dont expect Gagne to meltdown. However, i dont think he saves anywhere close to 55 again. Check out closers history. Rivera, one of the best ever, went from 50 saves in 01 to 28 the next year. His era went from 1.83 in 99 to 2.85 in 00. Gagne isnt in a class by himself, anyways. Smoltz is right there. Remember when Thigpen saved 57 one year? He had 54 saves the rest of his career. While i'm not comparing the 2, you can see that its a risky position. I want my 1st round pick risk free.
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Postby StAlEfReNcHfRi91 » Sun Oct 26, 2003 5:19 pm

i took helton at the 9th pick...10 team league...i'm shooting for nomar or pedro at the 2.2...if i had the choice, out of the 2, who would u take???
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Postby shortsavage » Sun Oct 26, 2003 5:39 pm

Arlo wrote:At the risk of drawing shortsavage's wrath, I'd be more inclined to pick Gagne early in a single-season league than in a keeper... ;-)


Haha, I have a wrath now?

I actually agree with you. Although I believe Gagne is a huge keeper league prospect, I can not decline that all the numbers surrounding the fact that closers having short lives.

It is apparent that I am abandoning this "theology", in my opinion that Gagne is a great keeper prospect. However, just because closers have been sporadic in the past, Gagne's value should be discounted. So what if his predecessors have faltered. He has proven to be very unique!

I expected the average fantasy baseball player to be more keen on Gagne. He should be a first round draft pick in most leagues. And am begining to think that many of you do not play in "most leagues". Sometimes we forget that there are an array of scoring systems out there.

With my scoring system (points based/h2h), Gagne was the top pitcher this season, includes starters! So, I can not see him being anything less than a top 10 overall draft pick.

Perhaps, in a different style of league, he is less valuable. Although I have not heard of such a league, I should be more aware that such a league may very well exist. Hehe, and all of you may be in it :-b .

Given my style of fantasy baseball, Gagne is a clear cut first round draft pick.
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Postby shortsavage » Sun Oct 26, 2003 5:47 pm

HOOTIE wrote:I want my 1st round pick risk free.


At last I think I have come upon the popular opinion. Point taken HOOTIE. I think I am becoming a little detached from the snake draft system, as my league is doing a live auction next season.

If I were in a snake auction league, I would prolly hesitate on taking Gagne, with one of the first five overall picks. However, taking the risk of Gagne, could prove to be a bold enough prediction to easily keep you in the top 3 teams all season long.

Gagne is a Sleeping Giant. Similar to Bobby Abreu, he is an established player who seems to be consistantly doubted. I think Sleeping Giants are the easiest kinds of sleeper picks to make. So why not "take the risk" on a Sleeping Giant this season?
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Postby HOOTIE » Sun Oct 26, 2003 6:15 pm

StAlEfReNcHfRi91 wrote:i took helton at the 9th pick...10 team league...i'm shooting for nomar or pedro at the 2.2...if i had the choice, out of the 2, who would u take???



I would take Pedro, but Nomar is a steal too.
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Postby Madison » Sun Oct 26, 2003 9:58 pm

Savage---Here's the thing. Even if you guaranteed me that Gagne would get 50 saves, have a 1.00 era, a 0.75 whip, and 100 k's, I still wouldn't take him in the first round.

He's not valuable enough to me to take him in the first round. I'm playing roto and H2H( 8-o I know, I know), next year and he's just not that valuable. Maybe in a points league, depending on how the points are distributed. In the majority of leagues, Gagne is not a 1st round pick.

Just doesn't contribute in enough catagories. Sure, he's an animal in saves, and does slighty contribute in era, whip, and k's, without hurting you. It's just not enough of a contribution for me to waste a 1st round pick on him.

Ask yourself this? Would you take Juan Pierre in the first round? It's the same principal. Pierre is an animal in steals, and does contribute in runs and average, and doesn't hurt you. Is that enough to make him a clear cut, no doubt about it, 1st round pick? I wouldn't. Same goes for Gagne.

Bottom line. Gagne=3rd round.
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