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Barry Zito Getting Worse?

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Barry Zito Getting Worse?

Postby jay » Wed Oct 22, 2003 6:36 pm

Stats for a start:
2001: 35 starts, 17-8, 3.49 ERA, 214 IP, 184 H, 205/80/18 K/BB/HR

2002: 35 starts, 23-5, 2.75 ERA, 229 IP, 182 H, 182/78/24 K/BB/HR

2003: 35 starts, 14-12, 3.30 ERA, 231 IP, 186 H, 146/88/19 K/BB/H

Do his sudden loss of 40 K and adding 10 BBs worry anyone else? What caused that? Is he going to have an ERA spike next year?
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Postby shortsavage » Wed Oct 22, 2003 7:10 pm

There as so many factors that can contribute to a pitcher's success. Look at Dontrell; baffles the league the first time around and gets hit hard the second time. A pitcher must evolve B-) ! Considering the former, every pitcher will have times when he stuggles. And the elite ones are the pitchers who can better themselves and continue to baffle hitters ;-D . Even The Moose felt it neccisary to add two pitches to his vocabulary this season. Or look at guys like Loaiza and Moyer who did not start fooling hitters until they had been pitching for years !+) .

Applied to Zito, he needs to evolve. He certainly has the talent and smarts. It will just take him some time to come up with a new way he can use his skills to, once again, shut down hitters. With the A's above average pitching program, expect Zito to rebound, even if Rick Peterson is traded to the Mets. Zito has too many tricks up his sleeve ;-) . Logic says he will be a force to recon with in 2004.
Last edited by shortsavage on Wed Oct 22, 2003 8:51 pm, edited 1 time in total.
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Postby Madison » Wed Oct 22, 2003 8:44 pm

I'm not concerned about Zito. He should post good numbers as usual.
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Postby DK » Wed Oct 22, 2003 9:28 pm

nor am i, should be a good pitcher next year
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Postby mightyian5 » Thu Oct 23, 2003 10:44 am

since hes my idol, ill always have his back. he had some problems with control last year and had that not-so-hot record due to poor run support at times. his era stayed pretty and he was still able to completly shut down opposing batters from time to time. towards the end of the year, he returned to his dominant self so i dont see a decline in skills nor an era spike occuring next year.
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Postby Arlo » Thu Oct 23, 2003 10:56 am

I'll go against the grain here and admit that I'm a bit worried, although not as much as I was earlier in the season. Any time a pitcher's k/bb ratio decreases so dramatically, you can't help but be concerned.

On the other hand, I agree that Zito has the smarts to succeed even without those extra strikeouts. I'm not as concerned as I'd be about many other young arms, but it's definitely something to keep an eye on.
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Postby DK » Thu Oct 23, 2003 6:34 pm

there was a study done using barry zito's starts in place of halladay's...in halladay's shoes Zito was 22-4. Webb was 14-1.
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Re: Barry Zito Getting Worse?

Postby HOOTIE » Fri Oct 24, 2003 2:04 am

jay wrote:Stats for a start:
2001: 35 starts, 17-8, 3.49 ERA, 214 IP, 184 H, 205/80/18 K/BB/HR

2002: 35 starts, 23-5, 2.75 ERA, 229 IP, 182 H, 182/78/24 K/BB/HR

2003: 35 starts, 14-12, 3.30 ERA, 231 IP, 186 H, 146/88/19 K/BB/H

Do his sudden loss of 40 K and adding 10 BBs worry anyone else? What caused that? Is he going to have an ERA spike next year?


The increase in walks is so minimal. His K decline merits noting, but he posted a better era with 146 so, then he did with 205. His hr rate hasnt increased. His era was so low in 02, because of his hit rate and strand rates. Since luck is involved in both, a era rise was expected in 03. But Zito still matched everyones honey, Halladay in era this year.
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Postby jay » Sat Oct 25, 2003 12:25 am

Hootie, when you say Hit rates do you mean htis per balls in play? if so, where do you get that stat?
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Postby HOOTIE » Sat Oct 25, 2003 2:53 am

jay wrote:Hootie, when you say Hit rates do you mean htis per balls in play? if so, where do you get that stat?


Yes, hit % is hits allowed per balls in play. The league average is 30%. Any variance + or - 3%, can effect era. Pitchers control strikeouts, walks, and hrs. They have no control on whether bloops drop, or line shots are caught. Hit rates come from Ron Shandlers BB Forecaster.

http://www.baseballforecaster.com
http://www.baseballhq.com
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