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Project Prospect's top 100 prospect list

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Project Prospect's top 100 prospect list

Postby shortsavage » Wed Jan 03, 2007 1:45 pm

Posting this in the big forum too, but thought some people may only see it here:

http://www.projectprospect.com/2007-top ... pect-list/


I've been working on that list forever and preparing to move across the country for a job. I'll drop by here more often again once I get settled in my new place.
Mike Pelfrey > Matt Garza
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Postby ukjohn » Wed Jan 03, 2007 2:18 pm

good stuff...good luck with the move ;-D
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Postby rmande09 » Wed Jan 03, 2007 2:38 pm

One of the better early lists I have seen. I actually only got through the top 50 or so, but here are my few gripes. Obviously, it is opinion for the most part, so what I say is not really critical, just what I think.

Not sure how Maybin is below Bruce. Maybin and Bruce put up similarly successful performances in their debuts, and Maybin's ceiling is much higher than Bruce's.

I feel Pelfrey at 10 is fairly absurd, especially ahead of Lincecum, Garza, and Gallardo. For a guy with only one pitch and a breaking ball that was never that great to begin with (and he lost it in 2006, to boot), I don't see how he can be that high.

Andrew Miller should not be 12; he's not even the best pitcher in his class (Lincecum).

Elbert is too high. Decent-sized lefty with stuff that is pretty much done improving (though it is still Grade A), his control is too big of an issue. Walking 5+ per 9 is absurd; though he is still young and his control is certain to improve, how much better will it get? Reminds me of Daniel Cabrera a little bit. He's got too much potential, so you don't want to put him too low, but he's got such a long ways to go, you don't want to put him too high. I'd say mid-20s.

Gallardo is fine where he is, but should be the #4 pitching prospect behind Hughes, Bailey, and Lincecum.

Not sure what is with this LaRoche over Braun absurdity. Everyone seems to want to do it, but I really don't see it. First, LaRoche is a very good 3Bman and will stick there in the Bigs; Braun will probably be moved to the OF. Second, LaRoche has the approach of a Major League veteran. Awesome K:BB ratio, knows what to do up at the dish. Braun is a free-swinger with great pop but too many Ks. Finally, LaRoche has 25+ homer power and will hit .300+ with ease. His OPS should be upwards of .900. Braun should hit 30-35 with his power, maybe even more in a few seasons, but probably will never hit above .270. I know what he has done this season was impressive, but keep in mind, this kind had a polished bat out of college and many thought he would be ready to handle A+ pitching immediately. This one always bothers me.

Loney and Votto are probably too high simply because of their position, though they are both pretty good with the glove (Loney being a stud).

Jacoby may have gotten a bit screwed; I may be biased, but I do feel he belongs ahead of Pie simply because of his success and ability to be a true leadoff hitter. And his Gold Glove defense helps, too.

I like Kershaw at 34 - a lot of people have him lower, but he could end up being the prize of the '06 class. Great stuff and great makeup for an 18, '07 could be a huge breakout year.

Overall, good job. Think it may have been a bit pitching-heavy in the top 20, but I like it.
C: Pierzynski
1B: Pujols
2B: Altuve
3B: Miggy
SS: HanRam
OF (x3): CarGo, M. Bourn, D. Jennings
UTIL (x2): E. Encarnacion, C. Hart
BN: Cuddyer, C. Ross, J. Montero

SP: Price, Gallardo, T. Hudson, Lester
RP: Chapman, Jansen, Rodney, Putz, Cishek, Bailey
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Postby dcskater619 » Wed Jan 03, 2007 2:49 pm

I don't see anyone in the Brewers system that will be stopping Braun from being their 3B of the future.. Definitely not Koskie.. They won't even have room in the outfield with Hall, Hart, Jenkins, Mench..
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Postby rmande09 » Wed Jan 03, 2007 3:43 pm

dcskater619 wrote:I don't see anyone in the Brewers system that will be stopping Braun from being their 3B of the future.. Definitely not Koskie.. They won't even have room in the outfield with Hall, Hart, Jenkins, Mench..


Just because they don't currently have someone does not mean they are going to let Braun stay at 3rd and play awful defense. Thirty-four (34!) errors in just over 1,000 innings (equivalent to about 112 games) is HORRENDOUS. Defense does not get easier as you move up (as indicated by his 19 errors in 57 starts at 3B in AA), and he is already pretty far along on the learning curve. In 115 starts at 3B, Braun made 34 errors. You realize that is extrapolated to 45 errors in 150 starts!? That is ABSURD! In 2006, the most errors made by a third baseman was 25 by Chad Tracy. That really is not good at all. But fourty-four! I believe he can cut the number down, simply because of natural player progression, but defense is not like hitting - it's not a skill that develops over time. He is a naturally poor fielder. More numbers - Braun made 13 errors in 2005 in his pro debut. Those 13 errors came in 39 games at 3B (extrapolated to 150 games, 50 errors). He had 119 chances in '05 and made 13 errors. That is a fielding percentage of .891! Not only would that, by far, be the worst fielding percentage at his position, but it would be the worst fielding percentage in ALL OF BASEBALL by almost .070 POINTS!

His bat will definitely stick in the OF, but it is no where near as valuable there as it is at 3B.
C: Pierzynski
1B: Pujols
2B: Altuve
3B: Miggy
SS: HanRam
OF (x3): CarGo, M. Bourn, D. Jennings
UTIL (x2): E. Encarnacion, C. Hart
BN: Cuddyer, C. Ross, J. Montero

SP: Price, Gallardo, T. Hudson, Lester
RP: Chapman, Jansen, Rodney, Putz, Cishek, Bailey
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Postby 05worldserieschamps » Thu Jan 04, 2007 1:29 pm

Ive heard alot about #9 Cameron Maybin. Ive heard he's really something. Im not even a Tigers Fan. But when will he break into the bigs? What year is he projected for?
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Postby rmande09 » Thu Jan 04, 2007 1:42 pm

05worldserieschamps wrote:Ive heard alot about #9 Cameron Maybin. Ive heard he's really something. Im not even a Tigers Fan. But when will he break into the bigs? What year is he projected for?


Probably 2009. He should start this season at A+, should get to AA by the end of the season, and then depending on how much time he spends there and how well he does, he could start 2008 at AAA.
C: Pierzynski
1B: Pujols
2B: Altuve
3B: Miggy
SS: HanRam
OF (x3): CarGo, M. Bourn, D. Jennings
UTIL (x2): E. Encarnacion, C. Hart
BN: Cuddyer, C. Ross, J. Montero

SP: Price, Gallardo, T. Hudson, Lester
RP: Chapman, Jansen, Rodney, Putz, Cishek, Bailey
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Postby Jibba » Thu Jan 04, 2007 11:32 pm

Maybe I overestimate him, or maybe I'm missing him, but I really think Boof Bonsor should be somewhere on this list. His innings increased has been ideal, providing consideration for a long-healthy career. He's had a solid K/9 rate, averaging about 1k per through the minors and with 80ks in 100 innings in the majors last year. He's what, 25?

And as a nice aside for us fantasy gamers, he is about the 5th best SP on the Twins at this point so he'll be pithcing against alot of other 4/5 pitchers. And that should bode well for his win total.

Me likey.
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Postby rmande09 » Thu Jan 04, 2007 11:46 pm

Jibba wrote:Maybe I overestimate him, or maybe I'm missing him, but I really think Boof Bonsor should be somewhere on this list. His innings increased has been ideal, providing consideration for a long-healthy career. He's had a solid K/9 rate, averaging about 1k per through the minors and with 80ks in 100 innings in the majors last year. He's what, 25?

And as a nice aside for us fantasy gamers, he is about the 5th best SP on the Twins at this point so he'll be pithcing against alot of other 4/5 pitchers. And that should bode well for his win total.

Me likey.


He's not a rookie...
C: Pierzynski
1B: Pujols
2B: Altuve
3B: Miggy
SS: HanRam
OF (x3): CarGo, M. Bourn, D. Jennings
UTIL (x2): E. Encarnacion, C. Hart
BN: Cuddyer, C. Ross, J. Montero

SP: Price, Gallardo, T. Hudson, Lester
RP: Chapman, Jansen, Rodney, Putz, Cishek, Bailey
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Postby Jibba » Fri Jan 05, 2007 12:07 am

rmande09 wrote:
Jibba wrote:Maybe I overestimate him, or maybe I'm missing him, but I really think Boof Bonsor should be somewhere on this list. His innings increased has been ideal, providing consideration for a long-healthy career. He's had a solid K/9 rate, averaging about 1k per through the minors and with 80ks in 100 innings in the majors last year. He's what, 25?

And as a nice aside for us fantasy gamers, he is about the 5th best SP on the Twins at this point so he'll be pithcing against alot of other 4/5 pitchers. And that should bode well for his win total.

Me likey.


He's not a rookie...


I read "top 100 prospects" and didn't realize that being a rookie was part of the criteria for being a prospect. I guess it does make you a vet.

For future reference, what is the criteria for maintaining rookie status for pitchers? And is being a rookie part of the criteria for being a prospect?
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