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Postby rmande09 » Thu Jan 04, 2007 10:45 am

Koby Schellenger wrote:So do you pick and choose which random internet articles you support based on whether or not they support your man-crush in Tim Lincecum? I don't understand why you can't possibly see your precious Lincecum in the bullpen. He'd be better there anyway. Two good pitches, the rest below average.
Do you realize you are arguing that he is not an injury risk because he can throw 140 pitches with no soreness? Want a list of a couple guys who did that in college/early as pros? Pedro Martinez, Mark Prior and Todd Van Poppel immediately pop to mind. All of them were or are major injury risks.
Obviously there's no point in arguing with you about this, but you'll see just how wrong you are within three years

For the record, B-R.com lists Glavine at 6'1", which is taller than 6'


What's funny is that Glavine, and this goes for MANY, MANY pitchers listed at 6'1", 6'2", are really a few inches shorter. Lincecum is listed at 6'0" in most draft reports, but he is definitely not 6'0". I've met Glavine personally, and standing at 6'5", he was at least six inches shorter than I was. There was no way he is 6'0". Roy Oswalt? 5'10" at best. My point: Many pitchers are listed with a few inches, probably because they report their height as more than what it really is.

And this made me laugh, simply because it is not true:

He'd be better there anyway. Two good pitches, the rest below average.
Do you realize you are arguing that he is not an injury risk because he can throw 140 pitches with no soreness? Want a list of a couple guys who did that in college/early as pros? Pedro Martinez, Mark Prior and Todd Van Poppel immediately pop to mind. All of them were or are major injury risks.


1. His change is not below average. It is no where near as good as the other two, but find me one ML starter not named Johan Santana that has three pitches as good as Lincecum's fastball and curveball. He also throws a slider, but I've read reports of that being scrapped since that is, notoriously, a pitch that causes elbow trouble.

2. I definitely think Lincecum could be successful in the bullpen, zero question. But I'm a firm believer that an ace starter is more valuable than an ace reliever, and Lincecum certainly has the making of an ace starter. Why sell him short? (No pun intended)

3. This is the kicker: Pedro Martinez, Todd Van Poppel, and Mark Prior could NOT throw 140 pitches without soreness when they were younger. Each and every one of them would not even think of playing CATCH the day after they threw 120 pitches, let alone play long toss. Lets face it: Few people are blessed with the ability to throw 120 pitches and wake up the next day without a sore muscle in their body. I know I wish I was that fortunate. I played with a guy like that in college, he could throw seven innings Friday and close Sunday, all the while throwing a 94 MPH fastball and a devastating slider. He was as durable as a freakin' horse, never having an arm problem through high school, college, and his few years in the pros. He was also a fairly small guy, standing around 5'11", 6'. I know that it is just one person, but it is true: If you can start a game and not experience soreness the next, you have an advantage over the rest. It is easier to keep your mechanics in line, to condition your arm, to keep your arm strong over a season, etc. The only way to build a strong, conditioned arm is to throw, which is no wonder why guys fade down the stretch in the Bigs - they start, take a day off, play catch, throw a simulated 'pen at 70%, play long-toss, start. Guys who have rubber arms can play long-toss the next day, throw a 'pen, play catch, and then another 'pen if needed the day before the start, if not, long-toss. This is the way it is. Perfect example of this is Roy Oswalt, who could probably pitch 81 of the 162 games because his arm is literally made out of rubber.

And my "random internet article" was all fact. There was no opinion there. It broke-down his wind-up from trigger to finish. The only "injury worry" in his wind-up is an assumption based on what the movement should do, though it has zero validity what-so-ever, as every other pitcher in baseball makes the same movement. The other issue, his leaning back at all times during his delivery, is not an injury concern, unless leaning back causes him to fall off the mound and dig his shoulder into the ground.
Last edited by rmande09 on Thu Jan 04, 2007 10:55 am, edited 1 time in total.
C: Pierzynski
1B: Pujols
2B: Altuve
3B: Miggy
SS: HanRam
OF (x3): CarGo, M. Bourn, D. Jennings
UTIL (x2): E. Encarnacion, C. Hart
BN: Cuddyer, C. Ross, J. Montero

SP: Price, Gallardo, T. Hudson, Lester
RP: Chapman, Jansen, Rodney, Putz, Cishek, Bailey
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Postby rmande09 » Thu Jan 04, 2007 10:54 am

Koby Schellenger wrote:Obviously there's no point in arguing with you about this, but you'll see just how wrong you are within three years

For the record, B-R.com lists Glavine at 6'1", which is taller than 6'


I missed this. Funny. So you are GUARANTEEING me that Lincecum will have arm problems and not be a starter within three years? Wow. That's ballsy. Even I'm not guaranteeing anything, as it is pretty difficult to guarantee health and success, especially for a pitcher, but all signs are pointing in the right direction.
C: Pierzynski
1B: Pujols
2B: Altuve
3B: Miggy
SS: HanRam
OF (x3): CarGo, M. Bourn, D. Jennings
UTIL (x2): E. Encarnacion, C. Hart
BN: Cuddyer, C. Ross, J. Montero

SP: Price, Gallardo, T. Hudson, Lester
RP: Chapman, Jansen, Rodney, Putz, Cishek, Bailey
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Postby sockeye » Thu Jan 04, 2007 12:37 pm

Koby Schellenger wrote:http://baseballanalysts.com/archives/20 ... cum_ke.php

I read your link but I don't buy "detect-o-vision" as a credible source. Not to mention it says
The first minor complaint is that despite the extreme rotation, Lincecum still over-rotates his upper arm behind his back, which in theory creates danger to the rear rotator cuff and labrum.


There have been plenty of articles and studies done on size and its relation to durability. BP wrote one comparing pitchers under 6', 6'-6'6" and over 6'6" and there is a fairly positive correlation between short pitchers spending more time on the DL and taller pitchers spending less time on the DL. Other articles compared the effects of high pitch counts on tall pitchers vs. short pitchers. They found short pitchers have more severe setbacks from high stress innings. I would quote but obviously it's pay material. If you question this, find me one durable pitcher under 6'


Koby, can you please provide links to some of these studies (especially the BP one)? I have been looking for such things, and have found none other than lists of guys on the DL by size - which does not include proportions, and are thus worthless. I'd be really interested in seeing a well-done study.
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Postby sockeye » Thu Jan 04, 2007 12:44 pm

Koby Schellenger wrote: How many 5'11" guys can you think of that throw gas and can stay healthy?


Here's a list copied from Perfect Game.

http://www.perfectgame.org/crack%5Fof%5 ... 5Fplayers/

It's not meant to be exhaustive (only active pitchers). It does not prove/disprove increased risk, but provides a list for all those posters who keep asking.

PITCHERS
Bartolo Colon RHP 5-11 250 Cy Young winner 05, W-21, 2 X All Star
Johan Santana LHP 6-0 205 Cy Young winner 04, W-20, 2 X All Star
Roy Oswalt RHP 6-0 185 Cy Young top 5 last 4 yrs, W-20 last 2 yrs, All Star
Pedro Martinez RHP 5-11 180 Cy Young winner 96, 99, 2000, W-23 99, 7 X All Star
Greg Maddux RHP 6-0 180 Cy Young winner 92.93.94,95, W-318 Career, 8 X All star
Tom Glavine LHP 6-0 185 Cy Young winner 91,98, over 20 wins 5 times, 9 X All Star
Mike Hampton LHP 5-10 195 2nd in Cy Young vote 1999, 2 X All Star
Jake Peavy RHP 6-0 180 All Star 2005
Jamie Moyer LHP 6-0 180 Won over 20-01,03, All Star 03
Scott Kazmir LHP 6-0 190 Young Star
Billy Wagner LHP 5-10 200 Rolaids Award 99, 4 X All Star
Trevor Hoffman RHP 6-0 215 Rolaids Award 98, 4 X All Star
Tom Gordon RHP 5-10 190 Rolaids Award 98, 2 X All Star
Chad Cordero RHP 6-0 200 Rolaids Award 05, All Star 05
Houston Street RHP 6-0 185 Rookie of the Year 05, 23 saves
Luis Vizcaino RHP 5-11 185 Most appearances 2002
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Postby sockeye » Thu Jan 04, 2007 12:55 pm

Koby Schellenger wrote: A veteran scout that I spoke to rated Lincecum's fastball as a 7 (on the 1-8 scale the team uses) or a 70 (on the more traditional 20-80 range). He called Lincecum's curve and change-up a 6 and his pitchability a 65.


Rmande, do you have any sources for those pitch ratings of 70+ for FB and CB? I have also heard that they are much higher than 3rd- hand report above (anonymous scout to BA to KS), and am curious about whether there is consensus in the industry (I am sure there's not - how could there ever be?), but would like to see for myself.
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Postby sockeye » Thu Jan 04, 2007 1:04 pm

Koby Schellenger wrote:Here are some quotes and links for you to chew on:
Before the June draft, expect Major League scouts to pick over Lincecum with a fine-tooth comb. Besides being slight of frame, Lincecum has an unorthodox pitching motion that worries some scouts about its repeatability. There is also some belief among scouts that Lincecum is best suited for the bullpen as a set up man or closer.

From http://gohuskies.cstv.com/sports/m-base ... 06aab.html

The circus freak among this year’s top prospects, Lincecum might not even reach 5-foot-10 in heels, weighs less than Old Weird Harold, and has a delivery that draws comparisons to a catapult, but his one-two combination of a mid-90s fastball and an outstanding downer curveball might be the best two-pitch tandem in the draft. He has a simple plan: get ahead with two fastballs, then put hitters away with the deuce. However, Lincecum’s size, unorthodox delivery, heavy workload — he threw relief in midweek games four times this spring, and threw eight or more innings seven times — and mediocre control all point toward a bullpen role in the pros. The limited data on Lincecum as a reliever supports the argument; in the Cape Cod League last summer, Lincecum threw 19.1 innings across 16 relief appearances, allowing one run, walking four batters and fanning 42. If the team that drafts him does put him in the pen, he’s likely to be the first 2006 draftee to reach the majors.

From http://sfgiants.mostvaluablenetwork.com ... mlb-draft/
via baseballprospectus

Lincecum's future may lie in the bullpen, where he could throw as hard as humanly possible on each and every pitch.

From http://www.brewerfan.net/ViewAmateurPla ... &draftId=4

Lincecum and Lincoln have the best present stuff, but neither stands taller than 6-foot-1. Lincoln's changeup remains a distant third pitch, and many scouts believe Lincecum's best value comes in the bullpen

From http://www.baseballamerica.com/today/dr ... 61299.html


None of these sources are more credible than the link that rmande provides. If anything, rmande's reads as a much more thorough 1-st person assessment of the primary issue (windup and injury risk), whereas the others either are simple parroting of others's comments, or reach a bullpen prescription because they have accepted a conclusion of injury risk accepted by others. Really, what is impressive about the detectovision report is that it provides it's own primary analysis, then supllements it with quotes from experts (who it mentions by name).

It's really a pretty well-written assessment.
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Postby rmande09 » Thu Jan 04, 2007 1:14 pm

sockeye,

I do not have an actual scouting report that has it graded at 70+. But, Baseball Prospectus is a very reliable site, and the guy who writes the top 10 prospect write-ups knows his stuff and knows some people. This is what he said about it:

The Good: Best pure stuff of any 2006 draftee. Despite looking like a 13-year-old on the mound, Lincecum's unorthodox mechanics and the fastest arm action you'll ever see allow him to unleash 92-96 mph fastballs while touching 98-99 and maintaining that velocity throughout the game. Curveball is an even better offering, grading out by many scouts as a pure 80 on the 20-80 scouting scale. Slider and changeup are there and usable. Despite size and delivery, arm was remarkably resilient in college, as he often closed 1-2 days after racking up a high pitch count without ever having problems with arm soreness.
The Bad: Control can be a problem at times. Lincecum walked 216 in 342 college innings, and while he made significant improvements this year, his rate was still a relatively high 4.52 per nine innings.


Many scouts do rate it an 80, but, as you said, it is tough to maintain consistency throughout. Some will go 75, and I'm sure there are some at 70 (and apparently 60, which is ridiculous). Still, if there are a bunch of scouts rating it an 80, I'd think it is clearly a pretty decent offering.

I have never gotten a rating on his fastball. But I would assume a fastball that sits 94-96 that touches 99 with a ton of pop that gets on hitters like a 103 MPH fastball would be ranked in the 70s at the very least. Though it won't be the hardest fastball in baseball, like I said, it gets on you like a fastball with a few more MPHs behind it and his deception and the fluidity and ease of his motion make it appear all the harder.

I was reading another credible source and it mentioned Lincecum's curve as one of, if not the best single pitch in the Minors. I'll try and find it but no promises.
C: Pierzynski
1B: Pujols
2B: Altuve
3B: Miggy
SS: HanRam
OF (x3): CarGo, M. Bourn, D. Jennings
UTIL (x2): E. Encarnacion, C. Hart
BN: Cuddyer, C. Ross, J. Montero

SP: Price, Gallardo, T. Hudson, Lester
RP: Chapman, Jansen, Rodney, Putz, Cishek, Bailey
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Postby sockeye » Thu Jan 04, 2007 1:29 pm

Rmande,

Thanks. If Goldstein is quoting others scouts as rating it an 80, that's pretty compelling to me. Somehow I missed that quote in my recent BP reads.

I've also seen that "best pitch in the majors" reference, but also cannot find it. Whoever finds it first, I think it should get posted here.

I like KS's challenge to the rating of Lincecum's pitches and within-game fatigue - it contradicts what I've read elsewhere, and that is a good thing to know. I'm probably going to have a crack at him in my draft.
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Postby rmande09 » Thu Jan 04, 2007 1:40 pm

sockeye wrote:Rmande,

Thanks. If Goldstein is quoting others scouts as rating it an 80, that's pretty compelling to me. Somehow I missed that quote in my recent BP reads.

I've also seen that "best pitch in the majors" reference, but also cannot find it. Whoever finds it first, I think it should get posted here.

I like KS's challenge to the rating of Lincecum's pitches and within-game fatigue - it contradicts what I've read elsewhere, and that is a good thing to know. I'm probably going to have a crack at him in my draft.


I got the second pick in my Minor League draft lottery, and it is for players from the '06 draft, so I'm figuring to get a pretty good chance to take him. I'm hoping #1 takes Longoria, because if he doesn't, it's going to make for a difficult decision between Longoria and Lincecum.
C: Pierzynski
1B: Pujols
2B: Altuve
3B: Miggy
SS: HanRam
OF (x3): CarGo, M. Bourn, D. Jennings
UTIL (x2): E. Encarnacion, C. Hart
BN: Cuddyer, C. Ross, J. Montero

SP: Price, Gallardo, T. Hudson, Lester
RP: Chapman, Jansen, Rodney, Putz, Cishek, Bailey
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Postby ukjohn » Thu Jan 04, 2007 2:51 pm

dcskater619 wrote:
ukjohn wrote:no way Gallardo is top 4 on that list

Adenhart >>>> Gallardo


uhh.... no?? gallardo > every minor league pitcher except hughes and bailey


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