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Postby rmande09 » Thu Jan 04, 2007 12:59 am

And here, check this out. Good read.

http://detectovision.com/?p=680

Now some of that seems a bit too over the top to me, but for the most part, it pretty much hits the nail on the head.

I hate to say I told you so, but...
C: Pierzynski
1B: Pujols
2B: Altuve
3B: Miggy
SS: HanRam
OF (x3): CarGo, M. Bourn, D. Jennings
UTIL (x2): E. Encarnacion, C. Hart
BN: Cuddyer, C. Ross, J. Montero

SP: Price, Gallardo, T. Hudson, Lester
RP: Chapman, Jansen, Rodney, Putz, Cishek, Bailey
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Postby FalcoAtL » Thu Jan 04, 2007 1:13 am

C. Maybin
J. Bruce
Y. Gallardo
Evan Longoria
Tim Linecum
Jose Tabata
Scot Elbert
Andrew Miller
Fernando Martinez
Clayton Kershaw
Andrew McCutcheon
Nick Adenhart
Reid Brignac
Elijah Dukes
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Postby Koby Schellenger » Thu Jan 04, 2007 1:27 am

I have seen Lincecum pitch on several occasions throughout his college and minor league career. Each time he showed signs of fatigue. As he throws more innings he begins to rely less on his fastball because he can't get the velocity on it the he did earlier in the game and he loses control.
Lincecum's stuff is as good as or better than any college pitcher in the draft (video). He throws a mid-90s fastball and an outstanding curve. A veteran scout that I spoke to rated Lincecum's fastball as a 7 (on the 1-8 scale the team uses) or a 70 (on the more traditional 20-80 range). He called Lincecum's curve and change-up a 6 and his pitchability a 65.


From baseballanalysts.com


You do bring up a good point in comparing him to Sowers and Verlander except you forget the crucial fact that Sowers has a good 2 inches on Lincecum and Verlander has 6.

He's short. He's thrown a lot of innings under stress. His mechanics are flawed. He's going to end up in the bullpen.[/quote]
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Postby rmande09 » Thu Jan 04, 2007 1:31 am

His mechanics are NOT flawed. Will people stop with that? For God's sakes. Just because he looks different does not mean he does anything wrong.

Read the article I provided for you.

I would like to know where you got that quote from. There is no way in hell that his curveball got rated a 60, unless that scout happened to catch him in his first start of the season in Washington when it was 30 degrees out. It is the best breaking pitch I have seen in person, and I have seen a LOT of baseball and a lot of excellent players.

The fact that his arm is made of rubber is another sign that he will not face injury problems.
C: Pierzynski
1B: Pujols
2B: Altuve
3B: Miggy
SS: HanRam
OF (x3): CarGo, M. Bourn, D. Jennings
UTIL (x2): E. Encarnacion, C. Hart
BN: Cuddyer, C. Ross, J. Montero

SP: Price, Gallardo, T. Hudson, Lester
RP: Chapman, Jansen, Rodney, Putz, Cishek, Bailey
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Postby Koby Schellenger » Thu Jan 04, 2007 1:47 am

http://baseballanalysts.com/archives/20 ... cum_ke.php

I read your link but I don't buy "detect-o-vision" as a credible source. Not to mention it says
The first minor complaint is that despite the extreme rotation, Lincecum still over-rotates his upper arm behind his back, which in theory creates danger to the rear rotator cuff and labrum.


There have been plenty of articles and studies done on size and its relation to durability. BP wrote one comparing pitchers under 6', 6'-6'6" and over 6'6" and there is a fairly positive correlation between short pitchers spending more time on the DL and taller pitchers spending less time on the DL. Other articles compared the effects of high pitch counts on tall pitchers vs. short pitchers. They found short pitchers have more severe setbacks from high stress innings. I would quote but obviously it's pay material. If you question this, find me one durable pitcher under 6'
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Postby Koby Schellenger » Thu Jan 04, 2007 2:05 am

Here are some quotes and links for you to chew on:
Before the June draft, expect Major League scouts to pick over Lincecum with a fine-tooth comb. Besides being slight of frame, Lincecum has an unorthodox pitching motion that worries some scouts about its repeatability. There is also some belief among scouts that Lincecum is best suited for the bullpen as a set up man or closer.

From http://gohuskies.cstv.com/sports/m-base ... 06aab.html

The circus freak among this year’s top prospects, Lincecum might not even reach 5-foot-10 in heels, weighs less than Old Weird Harold, and has a delivery that draws comparisons to a catapult, but his one-two combination of a mid-90s fastball and an outstanding downer curveball might be the best two-pitch tandem in the draft. He has a simple plan: get ahead with two fastballs, then put hitters away with the deuce. However, Lincecum’s size, unorthodox delivery, heavy workload — he threw relief in midweek games four times this spring, and threw eight or more innings seven times — and mediocre control all point toward a bullpen role in the pros. The limited data on Lincecum as a reliever supports the argument; in the Cape Cod League last summer, Lincecum threw 19.1 innings across 16 relief appearances, allowing one run, walking four batters and fanning 42. If the team that drafts him does put him in the pen, he’s likely to be the first 2006 draftee to reach the majors.

From http://sfgiants.mostvaluablenetwork.com ... mlb-draft/
via baseballprospectus

Lincecum's future may lie in the bullpen, where he could throw as hard as humanly possible on each and every pitch.

From http://www.brewerfan.net/ViewAmateurPla ... &draftId=4

Lincecum and Lincoln have the best present stuff, but neither stands taller than 6-foot-1. Lincoln's changeup remains a distant third pitch, and many scouts believe Lincecum's best value comes in the bullpen

From http://www.baseballamerica.com/today/dr ... 61299.html
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Postby rmande09 » Thu Jan 04, 2007 2:07 am

Koby Schellenger wrote:http://baseballanalysts.com/archives/20 ... cum_ke.php

I read your link but I don't buy "detect-o-vision" as a credible source. Not to mention it says
The first minor complaint is that despite the extreme rotation, Lincecum still over-rotates his upper arm behind his back, which in theory creates danger to the rear rotator cuff and labrum.


There have been plenty of articles and studies done on size and its relation to durability. BP wrote one comparing pitchers under 6', 6'-6'6" and over 6'6" and there is a fairly positive correlation between short pitchers spending more time on the DL and taller pitchers spending less time on the DL. Other articles compared the effects of high pitch counts on tall pitchers vs. short pitchers. They found short pitchers have more severe setbacks from high stress innings. I would quote but obviously it's pay material. If you question this, find me one durable pitcher under 6'


Tom Glavine.

Though I enjoy reading Analysts because they have good material there, I would like to see a scouting report from his time in the pros (like Prospectus') rather than something from April. There isn't a chance that his curveball is just a 60 - it is out of this world good.

And I buy the "smaller pitchers have more trouble with injury," but only when those smaller pitchers have actually had arm troubles. Again, for the hundredth time, Lincecum is the model of resiliency - he has never had an arm problem, and at the age of 22, I'd say he's earned at least some leeway from that ridiculous assumption.

DetectoVision is a Ms fansite who actually puts out good stuff. Read some of their articles - they know their stuff. Half of the stuff you read in that article weren't even written by the guys there, it was taken from reliable sites. And most of the stuff in that article isn't even opinion; it is fact.

As for your inclusion of this: "The first minor complaint is that despite the extreme rotation, Lincecum still over-rotates his upper arm behind his back, which in theory creates danger to the rear rotator cuff and labrum." You unfortunately, and I'm sure accidentally, forgot the second part of that paragraph: "Many, MLB pitchers do the same thing, so the complaint is not decisive." This is true. Go watch a video of a Major League pitcher. There's a pretty solid chance they over-rotate their upper arm. The thing about this assumption is that it is purely assumption; doctors would THINK over-rotating would cause problems with the rotator cuff, but there has never been evidence or support that this is actually the case.

His ability to throw 130 to 140 pitches and then get up the next day without soreness is fairly impressive. That should say a bit about the durability of someone's arm, no? I would think so. The fact that, in their conference weekends, he would pitch Friday and then play real long-toss on Saturday says a lot about the strength and durability of his arm. An 18 year old pitcher with very few innings under his belt standing at 6'0" may worry me, but I have no fears about Lincecum that I wouldn't have for your typical 6'5", 22 year old healthy pitcher.
C: Pierzynski
1B: Pujols
2B: Altuve
3B: Miggy
SS: HanRam
OF (x3): CarGo, M. Bourn, D. Jennings
UTIL (x2): E. Encarnacion, C. Hart
BN: Cuddyer, C. Ross, J. Montero

SP: Price, Gallardo, T. Hudson, Lester
RP: Chapman, Jansen, Rodney, Putz, Cishek, Bailey
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Postby rmande09 » Thu Jan 04, 2007 2:15 am

Koby Schellenger wrote:Here are some quotes and links for you to chew on:
Before the June draft, expect Major League scouts to pick over Lincecum with a fine-tooth comb. Besides being slight of frame, Lincecum has an unorthodox pitching motion that worries some scouts about its repeatability. There is also some belief among scouts that Lincecum is best suited for the bullpen as a set up man or closer.

From http://gohuskies.cstv.com/sports/m-base ... 06aab.html

The circus freak among this year’s top prospects, Lincecum might not even reach 5-foot-10 in heels, weighs less than Old Weird Harold, and has a delivery that draws comparisons to a catapult, but his one-two combination of a mid-90s fastball and an outstanding downer curveball might be the best two-pitch tandem in the draft. He has a simple plan: get ahead with two fastballs, then put hitters away with the deuce. However, Lincecum’s size, unorthodox delivery, heavy workload — he threw relief in midweek games four times this spring, and threw eight or more innings seven times — and mediocre control all point toward a bullpen role in the pros. The limited data on Lincecum as a reliever supports the argument; in the Cape Cod League last summer, Lincecum threw 19.1 innings across 16 relief appearances, allowing one run, walking four batters and fanning 42. If the team that drafts him does put him in the pen, he’s likely to be the first 2006 draftee to reach the majors.

From http://sfgiants.mostvaluablenetwork.com ... mlb-draft/
via baseballprospectus

Lincecum's future may lie in the bullpen, where he could throw as hard as humanly possible on each and every pitch.

From http://www.brewerfan.net/ViewAmateurPla ... &draftId=4

Lincecum and Lincoln have the best present stuff, but neither stands taller than 6-foot-1. Lincoln's changeup remains a distant third pitch, and many scouts believe Lincecum's best value comes in the bullpen

From http://www.baseballamerica.com/today/dr ... 61299.html


And, again, this is all simply based on the fact that none of these guys have seen someone deliver a pitch the way Lincecum does. They may be scouts and know quite a bit about baseball, but the scouts that I do know are not the brightest people I know outside of baseball. If they see something not familiar to them, it's not safe to trust them in analyzing the effects of an unorthodox pitching delivery. An actual doctor who analyzes deliveries would be much more trustworthy and probably more correct, right?

Triggers windup with big rock step back to 1B, bouncing into light, easy, high leg kick which turns his entire back to hitter in Jim Beattie-, Kevin Brown-style.

Lincecum's head turns to look at 3B coaching box at conclusion of wind - any less head turn would cramp his neck. Despite this hyper-rotation, his head is directly over his plant foot at the top, providing perfect balance throughout the windup.

Begins the cocking action with a very deep single-leg squat thrust — this deep squat prepares what may be the longest stride (per body length) in the history of pitching.

As Lincecum squats effortlessly, he splays his front leg and splays both arms to give him the famous pinwheel effect. His rear arm extends fully for a moment before beginning acceleration.

To accelerate the baseball, Tim Lincecum leaps so far off the pitching rubber that his front foot may in fact land in front of Randy Johnson's. At the same time, Lincecum uncoils his upper torso into its huge 235-degree turn. The combination of the forward thrust and the centrifugal action creates an Ichiro-like leveraging.

The first minor complaint is that despite the extreme rotation, Lincecum still over-rotates his upper arm behind his back, which in theory creates danger to the rear rotator cuff and labrum. Many, MLB pitchers do the same thing, so the complaint is not decisive.

At release, his shoulders are radically angled 10:30-to-4:30 from the catcher's point of view, giving him a true straight-overhand delivery. This combined with his long arms give Lincecum a release point that is actually higher than average and a nice downhill slope to his fastball.

The second minor complaint is that Lincecum leans back at the waist throughout acceleration. This poses no health concern, but creates an unbalanced "vertigo" effect that costs him command. Randy Johnson achieved his turning point precisely by learning to lean forward a bit, rather than backward, during acceleration. Lincecum could also do this with no danger to his phenomenal leverage.

In deceleration, his front foot is so exceptionally far forward that by the time his center of gravity travels over his foot, his energy is dissipated and he finishes with a very graceful, balanced bounce down the centerline.

His arm clears smoothly and deceleration is picture-perfect.

Centerline - his head stays on the centerline beautifully and after the initial rock, his entire body weight is extremely "true" down the CL with a rare nose-to-leather finish. As noted earlier, the quality of his forward acceleration is unparalleled. From an aiki standpoint his movement down the CL is far better than that of most MLB pitching stars.

Balance - Lincecum's one important flaw is that he leans slightly backward during acceleration and as he releases the pitch. This is the source of his command problems, as it was Randy Johnson's earlier in the Big Unit's career. Lincecum can pitch with the lean and show acceptable control - see the first POTD. Or he can learn to use the same motion with a bit less backward lean and improve his command.

Body Control - has exceptional strength-to-weight ratio, allowing him the luxury of the knee bend and leap, pitch after pitch, without tiring. Acceleration is smooth, effortless, and extremely powerful.

Summary - body and movements remind very much of Ichiro throughout. Light, sure power, extreme body control, with exceptional leveraging.


I have a feeling that guy knows a bit more about the medical and stress effects from Lincecum's delivery than any of these "scouts." Again, every quote you provided me based everything off of his unusual delivery, which they deemed an "injury concern" simply because they have never seen it before.
C: Pierzynski
1B: Pujols
2B: Altuve
3B: Miggy
SS: HanRam
OF (x3): CarGo, M. Bourn, D. Jennings
UTIL (x2): E. Encarnacion, C. Hart
BN: Cuddyer, C. Ross, J. Montero

SP: Price, Gallardo, T. Hudson, Lester
RP: Chapman, Jansen, Rodney, Putz, Cishek, Bailey
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Postby dcskater619 » Thu Jan 04, 2007 5:46 am

i had the same guy in mind.. Tom Glavine.. same height as Lincecum.. yet one of the most durable pitchers in the game.. ever.. All this height/mechanics criticism is irrelevant.. the guys a stud and has never had any problems with durability.. Mark Prior has chronic shoulder problems and hes 6'5'' (perfect height for a SP) with arguably the nicest mechanics ever seen..
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Postby Koby Schellenger » Thu Jan 04, 2007 9:24 am

So do you pick and choose which random internet articles you support based on whether or not they support your man-crush in Tim Lincecum? I don't understand why you can't possibly see your precious Lincecum in the bullpen. He'd be better there anyway. Two good pitches, the rest below average.
Do you realize you are arguing that he is not an injury risk because he can throw 140 pitches with no soreness? Want a list of a couple guys who did that in college/early as pros? Pedro Martinez, Mark Prior and Todd Van Poppel immediately pop to mind. All of them were or are major injury risks.
Obviously there's no point in arguing with you about this, but you'll see just how wrong you are within three years

For the record, B-R.com lists Glavine at 6'1", which is taller than 6'
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