Have 4 of top 10 minor league picks - Fantasy Baseball Cafe 2014 Fantasy Baseball Cafe
100% Deposit Bonus for Cafe Members!

Return to Minor League & College Baseball

Have 4 of top 10 minor league picks

Moderator: Baseball Moderators

Postby KDOGG » Wed Jan 03, 2007 10:25 am

Koby Schellenger wrote:
rmande09 wrote:I don't think there is much risk with Lincecum. Everyone is making a big deal about size and durability issues, but he has not shown a single reason why he should be considered an injury-threat. He has the best pure stuff out of his draft class, and some of the best stuff in the Minors. He could easily be up by the ASB and could end up being the Giants closer or even a very reliable starter by the end of the season.


The injury concerns about him come from his size and velocity that he throws. It puts so much extra strain on his shoulder and elbow that durability becomes a big question. How many 5'11" guys can you think of that throw gas and can stay healthy? The better question is what has he done to indicate that he will be an effective starter without major injury concerns?

Even if he does end up in the Giants pen this year (doubtful for any meaningful fantasy purposes) that's a big risk. Closers value is sketchy due to the volitility of the position and non-closing relief simply isn't very valuable in fantasy baseball. That's enough risk for me to want bump him down.


He reminds me of Billy Wagner. He has a similar throwing motion and they both throw gas. Now obviously Billy Wagner is a proven commodity in the fantasy baseball world and Lincecum has yet to prove anything but I think a move to the pen could possibly produce another Wagner. Because of the concerns Koby mentioned, I'd feel more comfortable if thats where he ended up but there have been sucessful short starting pitchers as well. Scott Kazmir (6'0") come to mind.

I would have ranked him after Gallardo if he didn't have those injury concerns.
KDOGG
Major League Manager
Major League Manager

User avatar
Pick 3 Weekly Winner
Posts: 1133
Joined: 1 Mar 2003
Home Cafe: Baseball
Location: On top of the AL East like always baby!!

Postby ukjohn » Wed Jan 03, 2007 2:19 pm

no way Gallardo is top 4 on that list

Adenhart >>>> Gallardo
"I'm out like a fat girl in dodge ball"
ukjohn
Major League Manager
Major League Manager

User avatar
Mock(ing) Drafter
Posts: 1283
Joined: 19 May 2003
Home Cafe: Baseball
Location: Northern Kentucky

Postby dcskater619 » Wed Jan 03, 2007 2:22 pm

ukjohn wrote:no way Gallardo is top 4 on that list

Adenhart >>>> Gallardo


uhh.... no?? gallardo > every minor league pitcher except hughes and bailey
dcskater619
Minor League Mentor
Minor League Mentor

User avatar

Posts: 868
Joined: 9 Apr 2005
Home Cafe: Basketball

Postby rmande09 » Wed Jan 03, 2007 2:23 pm

Koby Schellenger wrote:The injury concerns about him come from his size and velocity that he throws. It puts so much extra strain on his shoulder and elbow that durability becomes a big question. How many 5'11" guys can you think of that throw gas and can stay healthy? The better question is what has he done to indicate that he will be an effective starter without major injury concerns?


That's not a very good question at all, actually. I'll answer it anyways.

1. He has never had any arm problems, not once in his career, not even in Little League (according to him and medical reports).

2. He pitched 112.1 innings his freshman year in college, 104.1 his sophomore year, and 125.1 his junior year, for a total of 343 college innings pitched in three years, without an injury. That's a good amount of innings for a 20, 21, 22 year old kid to rack up without any problems.

3. He pitched a total of 157 innings of baseball in 2006, and did not have a single arm problem. And he was unbelievably effective.

so, what has he done to indicate he will be a successful starter without major injury problems? Pretty much everything possible. He has had a heavy workload for three straight seasons and has stayed strong throughout.

I could see pegging a smaller guy as an "injury risk" if he has had minor problems before. But Lincecum has never, ever had anything wrong with him. He has unbelievable stuff (a 70-75 fastball and an 80 [!!!!!!] curveball, which is absurd, and a decent change to go with it) and deserves to be mentioned with the top pitching prospects in baseball. He has earned it.
C: Pierzynski
1B: Pujols
2B: Altuve
3B: Miggy
SS: HanRam
OF (x3): CarGo, M. Bourn, D. Jennings
UTIL (x2): E. Encarnacion, C. Hart
BN: Cuddyer, C. Ross, J. Montero

SP: Price, Gallardo, T. Hudson, Lester
RP: Chapman, Jansen, Rodney, Putz, Cishek, Bailey
rmande09
Minor League Mentor
Minor League Mentor


Posts: 972
Joined: 28 Jun 2006
Home Cafe: Baseball

Postby dcskater619 » Wed Jan 03, 2007 2:44 pm

70-75 fastball, 80+ curve?? was that a mistake??
dcskater619
Minor League Mentor
Minor League Mentor

User avatar

Posts: 868
Joined: 9 Apr 2005
Home Cafe: Basketball

Postby rmande09 » Wed Jan 03, 2007 3:52 pm

dcskater619 wrote:70-75 fastball, 80+ curve?? was that a mistake??


No, sorry, should have specified that is what his pitches rank on a scout's grading scale. If you are unfamiliar with it, it is a scale that goes from 20-80, 80 being the highest, 20 the lowest. They use it with pretty much every possible tool you could imagine, from an offensive's players power potential, his stance, or a pitcher's release point. Lincecum's curveball is, on many scouts' sheets, a pure 80 out of 80; if I'm not mistaken, I believe Santana's slider and someone elses curveball (can't remember) are the only other 80s in all of baseball. Santana is the only pitcher in baseball with three pitches at 70 and above. Lincecum has two above 70, and his change is around 60, and his slider is usable, though I'm not sure if that falls at 55 or 60.

Major League average is 50.
C: Pierzynski
1B: Pujols
2B: Altuve
3B: Miggy
SS: HanRam
OF (x3): CarGo, M. Bourn, D. Jennings
UTIL (x2): E. Encarnacion, C. Hart
BN: Cuddyer, C. Ross, J. Montero

SP: Price, Gallardo, T. Hudson, Lester
RP: Chapman, Jansen, Rodney, Putz, Cishek, Bailey
rmande09
Minor League Mentor
Minor League Mentor


Posts: 972
Joined: 28 Jun 2006
Home Cafe: Baseball

Postby KDOGG » Wed Jan 03, 2007 6:09 pm

rmande09 wrote:
dcskater619 wrote:70-75 fastball, 80+ curve?? was that a mistake??


No, sorry, should have specified that is what his pitches rank on a scout's grading scale. If you are unfamiliar with it, it is a scale that goes from 20-80, 80 being the highest, 20 the lowest. They use it with pretty much every possible tool you could imagine, from an offensive's players power potential, his stance, or a pitcher's release point. Lincecum's curveball is, on many scouts' sheets, a pure 80 out of 80; if I'm not mistaken, I believe Santana's slider and someone elses curveball (can't remember) are the only other 80s in all of baseball. Santana is the only pitcher in baseball with three pitches at 70 and above. Lincecum has two above 70, and his change is around 60, and his slider is usable, though I'm not sure if that falls at 55 or 60.

Major League average is 50.


Gotta be Zito that things is ridiculous
KDOGG
Major League Manager
Major League Manager

User avatar
Pick 3 Weekly Winner
Posts: 1133
Joined: 1 Mar 2003
Home Cafe: Baseball
Location: On top of the AL East like always baby!!

Postby Koby Schellenger » Wed Jan 03, 2007 9:12 pm

rmande09, I think you are vastly overrating Lincecum by extrapolating low innings to high innings. There are plenty of pitchers who can pitch 120 innings and then, come August, they run out of gas. Averaging 110 innings per year in college is hardly evidence that he will be able to log 180-220 innings in a season. You should look at his delivery for further evidence that he will have injury concerns. His odd delivery puts extra strain on the elbow and that shows throughout games by a prevalent decline in velocity.

I don't know where you're finding your scouting reports, but I highly disagree with whoever claims his curveball is an 80. The assessment of Lincecum is more divided than just about any pitcher I can remember, but 80 is way too high.

I am certainly not trying to say that he isn't talented or won't be good but I am questioning his future role. For the time being though, he has good stuff but it is not nearly as good as the top guys because Lincecum still struggles with control issues.
** http://www.moundtalk.com ** MLB June Mock Draft ongoing.
Koby Schellenger
College Coach
College Coach

User avatar

Posts: 274
Joined: 4 Nov 2006
Home Cafe: Baseball
Location: Madison, WI

Postby rmande09 » Wed Jan 03, 2007 10:57 pm

Koby Schellenger wrote:rmande09, I think you are vastly overrating Lincecum by extrapolating low innings to high innings. There are plenty of pitchers who can pitch 120 innings and then, come August, they run out of gas. Averaging 110 innings per year in college is hardly evidence that he will be able to log 180-220 innings in a season. You should look at his delivery for further evidence that he will have injury concerns. His odd delivery puts extra strain on the elbow and that shows throughout games by a prevalent decline in velocity.

I don't know where you're finding your scouting reports, but I highly disagree with whoever claims his curveball is an 80. The assessment of Lincecum is more divided than just about any pitcher I can remember, but 80 is way too high.

I am certainly not trying to say that he isn't talented or won't be good but I am questioning his future role. For the time being though, he has good stuff but it is not nearly as good as the top guys because Lincecum still struggles with control issues.


OK. Few problems here.

First: His odd mechanics are just that: odd. He has a funky delivery, but he stays on top of the ball and does not lead with his elbow. Does it look different? Yes. Does it put more strain on the shoulder and elbow? Yes, but the difference in the amount of strain between throwing from a normal arm slot and Tim's is minimal. Everyone makes a huge deal out of it because it does not look "normal," which I find to be fairly ridiculous. Though, again, I make this point: The kid has done everything possible to prove he is not an injury risk - why does everyone insist that he will get hurt?

Second: Have you seen him pitch? I was just curious, because I was fortunate enough to see him pitch twice this past season, once at Oregon State and once against Washington State. He struck out at least 10 against Oregon State and was filthy, but I remember he had control problems. His last pitch that game, which I distinctly remember, was a 99 MPH fastball that he blew by a kid for the K. He was even better against Washington State, throwing a complete game. He again struck out at least 10; his stuff was phenomenal. In both games, his fastball sat for 94 and up, touching 99. His curveball was the best breaking pitch I have ever seen in person. His change was average. The point of this story is to question your info. Both times I saw Lincecum, he maintained his velocity from pitch 1 through his final pitch. His curveball was, without question, an 80 on the scale. It was just one of those power curves that was beautiful. And, just for good measure, a bit about Lincecum from a reputable website, Baseball Prospectus:

The Good: Best pure stuff of any 2006 draftee. Despite looking like a 13-year-old on the mound, Lincecum's unorthodox mechanics and the fastest arm action you'll ever see allow him to unleash 92-96 mph fastballs while touching 98-99 and maintaining that velocity throughout the game. Curveball is an even better offering, grading out by many scouts as a pure 80 on the 20-80 scouting scale. Slider and changeup are there and usable. Despite size and delivery, arm was remarkably resilient in college, as he often closed 1-2 days after racking up a high pitch count without ever having problems with arm soreness.


Third: I found it interesting that you did not find 112.1 innings at 20, 104.1 at 21, and 157 innings as a 22 year old quite a workload for a pitcher. To me, I would say that was about average, maybe even above average, for a pitcher in the Minor Leagues, ignoring the fact that he did it at college rather than in the Minors, because, lets face it, throwing a pitch is the same regardless of where you are. So I checked out the reigning AL ROTY, Justin Verlander, because he pitched in college and came out his junior year as well, and was on the fast track to the Bigs. Verlander through 116.1 innings as a 20 (four more than Lincecum), 105.2 as a 21 (1 more), and 130 innings as a 22 (27 innings less than Lincecum). Jeremy Sowers, another college guy taken in 2004, pitched 115 as a 20, 122.2 as a 21, and 158 as a 22. Could this prove to be irrelevant? Of course. But it does go to show that Lincecum's workload the past few years is very similar to what other college pitchers coming into the Bigs throw. It will obviously take a bit for his body to mature and his stamina and endurance to build up to throw 200+ innings a season, but using his delivery and size is not fair because he has shown zero reason to believe he will fail. What really gets me is that one would expect a guy who was CLEARLY throwing the most innings in a single season in his career to have trouble as he was winding down, yet that was certainly not the case. Though he was pitching against A-ball competition, his stuff was still great - I remember reading about his final few starts at San Jose, and each report had him sitting from 94-96, topping out at 99, and his curveball being downright filthy. Wouldn't you expect some regression at this point in time? Lincecum certainly wasn't showing it...

I do agree with you that if there is one thing that Lincecum has trouble with, it is control. However, he is still young, and you have to give him credit - it improved each year in college, and it improved at A+ from what it was in his junior year (though a small sample size). Most power pitchers have command issues and tend to iron it out, and Lincecum's control isn't TERRIBLE, so there's no reason to believe he won't make strides in that department.
C: Pierzynski
1B: Pujols
2B: Altuve
3B: Miggy
SS: HanRam
OF (x3): CarGo, M. Bourn, D. Jennings
UTIL (x2): E. Encarnacion, C. Hart
BN: Cuddyer, C. Ross, J. Montero

SP: Price, Gallardo, T. Hudson, Lester
RP: Chapman, Jansen, Rodney, Putz, Cishek, Bailey
rmande09
Minor League Mentor
Minor League Mentor


Posts: 972
Joined: 28 Jun 2006
Home Cafe: Baseball

Postby rmande09 » Thu Jan 04, 2007 12:44 am

http://www.calleaguers.com/LincecumTim0326.html

Finally found one. That's a video of his wind-up. See? Different-looking, but in the end, the stress on the arm is hardly any different from a normal pitcher. I think what makes it look so different is the fact that he looks like he is rushing, but everything stays in line and his mechanics are fine.
C: Pierzynski
1B: Pujols
2B: Altuve
3B: Miggy
SS: HanRam
OF (x3): CarGo, M. Bourn, D. Jennings
UTIL (x2): E. Encarnacion, C. Hart
BN: Cuddyer, C. Ross, J. Montero

SP: Price, Gallardo, T. Hudson, Lester
RP: Chapman, Jansen, Rodney, Putz, Cishek, Bailey
rmande09
Minor League Mentor
Minor League Mentor


Posts: 972
Joined: 28 Jun 2006
Home Cafe: Baseball

PreviousNext

Return to Minor League & College Baseball

Who is online

Users browsing this forum: No registered users and 2 guests

Forums Articles & Tips Sleepers Rankings Leagues


  • Fantasy Baseball
  • Article Submissions
  • Privacy Statement
  • Site Survey 
  • Contact