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Postby Tavish » Sat Dec 23, 2006 3:30 pm

bellings wrote:
ukrneal wrote:And I cannot agree in any sense that Johan should be on this list today. If he gets injured and his career tanks, he never cracks the list. He'll be one of many pitchers who had a few good years and then disappeared. He certainly has the talent to do so however, and I expect to eventually see him at some time in the future.


I'll agree with you if you can name for me a couple pitchers that have put together a dominating stretch like Johan but aren't some of the best all time. So far, pitchers with similar streaks are Pedro, Rocket, and the Big Unit.


Except their streaks were better than Johan's and over much larger periods. That's what makes them considered in the elite.

Johan has 3 seasons as a starter and a career high ERA+ is 182 in 2004. Pedro has 5 seasons better than Johan's best, Maddux has 4, RJ has 4, and Clemens has 3. Johan not only hasn't been playing long enough to be considered in the same category as those guys he hasn't even been good enough in the years he has played.

He has been roughly as good as Roy Oswalt. Do you consider Oswalt to be one of the greatest ever right now?
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Postby Tavish » Sat Dec 23, 2006 3:34 pm

BritSox wrote:
DK wrote:
BritSox wrote:
suppasonic wrote:LF-If you aren't going to severely penalize Bonds, then make him #1. Either you make him #30 or #1. Same with Rose.


Erm... you don't have to bring steroids into it at all to put Williams over Bonds.


I disagree here... If you don't include the alleged steroid use Bonds is undoubtedly the #1 LF.

Even if you do, he's still #1 in my eyes.


Very, very strongly disagree.

Career OPS:

Bonds 1051
Williams 1116

And Williams missed three full seasons of his prime to WWII, and played in a much lesser hitter's era (does anyone have the OPS+ numbers?) The guy's career OBP was .482. Add in the historic value of being the last guy to hit .400, and its is Williams, not Bonds, who is undoubtedly the best ever LF.


Williams was the best hitting LF ever, but not by a great margin over Bonds. Bonds was far and away better at every other aspect of the game.
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Postby ukrneal » Sat Dec 23, 2006 4:11 pm

Tavish wrote:
bellings wrote:
ukrneal wrote:And I cannot agree in any sense that Johan should be on this list today. If he gets injured and his career tanks, he never cracks the list. He'll be one of many pitchers who had a few good years and then disappeared. He certainly has the talent to do so however, and I expect to eventually see him at some time in the future.


I'll agree with you if you can name for me a couple pitchers that have put together a dominating stretch like Johan but aren't some of the best all time. So far, pitchers with similar streaks are Pedro, Rocket, and the Big Unit.


Except their streaks were better than Johan's and over much larger periods. That's what makes them considered in the elite.

Johan has 3 seasons as a starter and a career high ERA+ is 182 in 2004. Pedro has 5 seasons better than Johan's best, Maddux has 4, RJ has 4, and Clemens has 3. Johan not only hasn't been playing long enough to be considered in the same category as those guys he hasn't even been good enough in the years he has played.

He has been roughly as good as Roy Oswalt. Do you consider Oswalt to be one of the greatest ever right now?


OSwalt and Carpenter were actually the modern day guys I had in mind. From previous eras there are many: Mike Scott, Mike Flanagan (non-consecutive), Don Newcombe, Ron Guidry, etc. I couldn't classify any of these guys as the best for all time, but they had some great runs (or years). Even someone like Curt Schilling comes to mind. I would argue that most if not all of these guys are not HOF worthy, although they were certainly good and all had a few years when they were simply dominating. I think there are many more like these.
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Postby bellings » Sat Dec 23, 2006 4:42 pm

Oswalt? Are you guys serious? He's never won a Cy Young, rarely gets 200 K's per year, his best WHIP for a full year of pitching is 1.14, and his best ERA is 2.94. Johan has 2 Cy Young's, and has beat Oswalt's best K's, ERA, and WHIP every year for the last 3 years. That's not even close.
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Postby bellings » Sat Dec 23, 2006 4:56 pm

Tavish wrote:Except their streaks were better than Johan's and over much larger periods. That's what makes them considered in the elite.

Johan has 3 seasons as a starter and a career high ERA+ is 182 in 2004. Pedro has 5 seasons better than Johan's best, Maddux has 4, RJ has 4, and Clemens has 3. Johan not only hasn't been playing long enough to be considered in the same category as those guys he hasn't even been good enough in the years he has played.


Okay, fine, I'm not arguing that Johan is better than these guys. But all of these guys are top-10, and Johan isn't on a top-100 list.
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Postby ukrneal » Sat Dec 23, 2006 5:25 pm

bellings wrote:Oswalt? Are you guys serious? He's never won a Cy Young, rarely gets 200 K's per year, his best WHIP for a full year of pitching is 1.14, and his best ERA is 2.94. Johan has 2 Cy Young's, and has beat Oswalt's best K's, ERA, and WHIP every year for the last 3 years. That's not even close.


You're right. Oswalt IS better. Anyway, you get the point.

What was that big explosion?!?!

Now before you get in a twit, look at Oswalt's stats, the guy has been great over about 4-5 years. His ERA+ has been quite comparable with Johan's. It is partly a question of peak vs longevity at this point (with Johan just not having had enough time to pitch the years). That said, I don't see how 50K's doesn't make this a legit comparison.

My point is that he fits in with at least a dozen to two dozen other pitchers at this point. Gooden is another one.
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Postby bellings » Sat Dec 23, 2006 5:44 pm

ukrneal wrote:
bellings wrote:Oswalt? Are you guys serious? He's never won a Cy Young, rarely gets 200 K's per year, his best WHIP for a full year of pitching is 1.14, and his best ERA is 2.94. Johan has 2 Cy Young's, and has beat Oswalt's best K's, ERA, and WHIP every year for the last 3 years. That's not even close.


You're right. Oswalt IS better. Anyway, you get the point.

What was that big explosion?!?!

Now before you get in a twit, look at Oswalt's stats, the guy has been great over about 4-5 years. His ERA+ has been quite comparable with Johan's. It is partly a question of peak vs longevity at this point (with Johan just not having had enough time to pitch the years). That said, I don't see how 50K's doesn't make this a legit comparison.

My point is that he fits in with at least a dozen to two dozen other pitchers at this point. Gooden is another one.


Ah, that's the problem with message boards, it was more a shocked response than an explosion. It's not just the 50 K's. Johan has posted a WHIP of 1.00 or better the last 3 years, whereas Oswalt's best is 1.14 for a full year. That's a huge difference. Oswalt has been very good for a long time, but he has never been dominating like Johan.

Even Gooden wasn't as good as Johan, although his peak in '85 was higher, but we aren't getting into 1-year-wonders. I just don't see how there are dozens of similar pitchers that have been as good as Johan for this long of a stretch. Everyone who has put up similar 3+ year stretches like this is widely considered to be one of the best-ever pitchers.
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Postby ukrneal » Sat Dec 23, 2006 6:12 pm

bellings wrote:
ukrneal wrote:
bellings wrote:Oswalt? Are you guys serious? He's never won a Cy Young, rarely gets 200 K's per year, his best WHIP for a full year of pitching is 1.14, and his best ERA is 2.94. Johan has 2 Cy Young's, and has beat Oswalt's best K's, ERA, and WHIP every year for the last 3 years. That's not even close.


You're right. Oswalt IS better. Anyway, you get the point.

What was that big explosion?!?!

Now before you get in a twit, look at Oswalt's stats, the guy has been great over about 4-5 years. His ERA+ has been quite comparable with Johan's. It is partly a question of peak vs longevity at this point (with Johan just not having had enough time to pitch the years). That said, I don't see how 50K's doesn't make this a legit comparison.

My point is that he fits in with at least a dozen to two dozen other pitchers at this point. Gooden is another one.


Ah, that's the problem with message boards, it was more a shocked response than an explosion. It's not just the 50 K's. Johan has posted a WHIP of 1.00 or better the last 3 years, whereas Oswalt's best is 1.14 for a full year. That's a huge difference. Oswalt has been very good for a long time, but he has never been dominating like Johan.

Even Gooden wasn't as good as Johan, although his peak in '85 was higher, but we aren't getting into 1-year-wonders. I just don't see how there are dozens of similar pitchers that have been as good as Johan for this long of a stretch. Everyone who has put up similar 3+ year stretches like this is widely considered to be one of the best-ever pitchers.


I guess we just see it differnently. I don't see such a small difference over such a short time as really that much of a big difference. Their other stats are comparable, so I don't put that much extra weight on the WHIP, which is admittedly a bit better.

Gooden is not just a one year wonder. His 2004 and 2006 are very good and he was second in 2004 in the Cy voting, so quite similar I think.

In the end, I think we will agree that Johan is a great pitcher, it's jsut difficult for me to put him in a list of top pitchers ever based on such a small sample at this time.
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Postby bellings » Sat Dec 23, 2006 8:36 pm

Honestly, this whole discussion makes me lose faith in ERA+. It appears that it using the individual league for the average ERA, not all of MLB. With the way that the American League has been beating the National League like a red-headed step child, I just isn't a good way to compare pitchers.
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Postby acsguitar » Sat Dec 23, 2006 8:43 pm

Ortiz wins the best smile position
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