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Postby ukrneal » Sat Dec 23, 2006 5:09 am

And I cannot agree in any sense that Johan should be on this list today. If he gets injured and his career tanks, he never cracks the list. He'll be one of many pitchers who had a few good years and then disappeared. He certainly has the talent to do so however, and I expect to eventually see him at some time in the future.
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Postby DK » Sat Dec 23, 2006 11:29 am

BritSox wrote:
suppasonic wrote:LF-If you aren't going to severely penalize Bonds, then make him #1. Either you make him #30 or #1. Same with Rose.


Erm... you don't have to bring steroids into it at all to put Williams over Bonds.


I disagree here... If you don't include the alleged steroid use Bonds is undoubtedly the #1 LF.

Even if you do, he's still #1 in my eyes.
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Postby GotowarMissAgnes » Sat Dec 23, 2006 11:39 am

This is, without a doubt, one of the worst lists I have ever seen.
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Postby Tavish » Sat Dec 23, 2006 12:29 pm

GotowarMissAgnes wrote:This is, without a doubt, one of the worst lists I have ever seen.


Not sure I would go that far, but it is pretty bad. Some of my favorite head scratchers:

Eddie Murray #3 1B. With Bagwell #9 and Frank Thomas #11.

George Davis #5 SS. I'm not sure you will find anyone not a distant relative that puts him in the top 10.

Joe Jackson #12 LF. I've seen many people put Joe Jackson in the top 20 for all position players.

Billy Hamilton #5 CF. Might be the first time that I didn't see the top 5 CF consist of the usual suspects (Cobb, Mays, Speaker, Mantle, DiMaggio).

Tony Gwynn #14 RF. No clue how they determined that.
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Postby BritSox » Sat Dec 23, 2006 1:08 pm

DK wrote:
BritSox wrote:
suppasonic wrote:LF-If you aren't going to severely penalize Bonds, then make him #1. Either you make him #30 or #1. Same with Rose.


Erm... you don't have to bring steroids into it at all to put Williams over Bonds.


I disagree here... If you don't include the alleged steroid use Bonds is undoubtedly the #1 LF.

Even if you do, he's still #1 in my eyes.


Very, very strongly disagree.

Career OPS:

Bonds 1051
Williams 1116

And Williams missed three full seasons of his prime to WWII, and played in a much lesser hitter's era (does anyone have the OPS+ numbers?) The guy's career OBP was .482. Add in the historic value of being the last guy to hit .400, and its is Williams, not Bonds, who is undoubtedly the best ever LF.
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Postby AcidRock23 » Sat Dec 23, 2006 1:09 pm

DK wrote:
BritSox wrote:
suppasonic wrote:LF-If you aren't going to severely penalize Bonds, then make him #1. Either you make him #30 or #1. Same with Rose.


Erm... you don't have to bring steroids into it at all to put Williams over Bonds.


I disagree here... If you don't include the alleged steroid use Bonds is undoubtedly the #1 LF.

Even if you do, he's still #1 in my eyes.


I dunno, that involves penalizing Williams for having served his country in two wars during his peak performing years. I think that the rest of his record suggests he can be considered if you take that into consideration.
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Postby BritSox » Sat Dec 23, 2006 2:19 pm

AcidRock23 wrote:
I dunno, that involves penalizing Williams for having served his country in two wars during his peak performing years. I think that the rest of his record suggests he can be considered if you take that into consideration.


I'd argue that if you ignore steroids AND the time Williams missed, Williams is STILL the better player.
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Postby Koby Schellenger » Sat Dec 23, 2006 2:59 pm

Comparing Bonds to Williams is always a tough comparison to make. Steroids is such a divisive issue that properly adjusting for it with the limited information available is hard to do. It conversely seems unfair to penalize Williams for serving his country in two wars. But it also seems somewhat unfair to reward him for what he would have done IF he hadn't served because that seems to lend itself to some undesired WHAT IF scnearios. So I'll offer two scenarios for Williams career stats compared to one for Bonds which does not account for steroids.

Based on what actually did happen:
Bonds holds a significant edge in HR by about 250. He has accumulated more hits, runs, rbi and so on. He has more runs created, WARP-3 etc. Basically, Bonds holds the counting stats edge. But then again, he had over 1000 ABs more than Williams.

Williams holds the edge in career batting average (.344, 7th all time v. .299) on base % (.482, 1st all time, v .443, 6th all time) slugging average (.634, 2nd all time, v. .606, 6th all time) OPS (1.116, 2nd all time, v. 1.051, 4th all time) and adjusted OPS+ (190, 2nd all time v. 182, 3rd all time). So it's quite clear that Williams was more efficient and profiecient but simply missed 5 seasons. For those who like EqA, Bonds career EqA is .356 vs. Williams .364.

It's very hard to argue that Bonds is better than Williams because of Williams unbelievable 7th, 1st, 2nd and 2nd all time rankings in avg/obp/slug/ops, but Bonds is close. Giving the edge to Bonds in spite of the rate numbers indicates an increased weight on the counting stats and possibly a disregard for any posible steroid use.

I usually don't like to play the WHAT IF game but with Williams there is a special case. So take this as you will.

Home Runs:
Williams had 521 career home runs. He missed 1943-1945 and 1952-1953. Prior to 1943 Williams averaged 32 home runs per season. Without projecting improvement over those years (ages 24-26) he might have hit 96 more home runs. In the two years prior and following his tour in Korea, Williams hit 28 & 30 and 28 & 29 home runs. If he hit 28 home runs in each of those seasons he would have "missed" 56 home runs for a combined 152 "missed" home runs. That would put him at 673 home runs for his career.

Runs/RBI:
Using the same methodology, Williams missed enough time that he would have surpassed Bonds in runs and RBI.

WARP-3:
Williams career WARP-3 was 172.0 against Bonds 233.1. Williams years before WW2 averaged 13 WARP-3 as did his years after. His years in Korea caused him to "miss' about 8 per year. This would put him at 227, much closer.


Playing the WHAT IF game has tremendous impact and certainly shouldn't be used liberally. Williams was 41 when he retired and Bonds is 41 now. The comparison between the two is tough because of time missed in combat, steroids and era differences. Williams played in a less offensive era and was able to put up better rate stats. Bonds didn't miss time and was slghtly worse (except for the notable difference in avg). What you weight more is a personal preference issue with little to no merit to either side.

I tend to fall on the side of Ted Williams for the fact that I value the rates more than home runs, runs etc. But more than a who's 1, who's 2 situation, it is probably a 1/1a.
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Postby bellings » Sat Dec 23, 2006 3:13 pm

ukrneal wrote:And I cannot agree in any sense that Johan should be on this list today. If he gets injured and his career tanks, he never cracks the list. He'll be one of many pitchers who had a few good years and then disappeared. He certainly has the talent to do so however, and I expect to eventually see him at some time in the future.


I'll agree with you if you can name for me a couple pitchers that have put together a dominating stretch like Johan but aren't some of the best all time. So far, pitchers with similar streaks are Pedro, Rocket, and the Big Unit.
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Postby AcidRock23 » Sat Dec 23, 2006 3:14 pm

That's a great write up. I am more inclined to favor rates and also favor going fishing w/ your buddies in the off season instead of hanging around gyms and pumping iron.
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