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Postby J35J » Wed Dec 20, 2006 10:52 am

The Cow wrote:Well I guess I should respond. First I never said that 27 was not the average or most common peak year. What I did say that pointing out that 28,29, and 30 are declining years when talking about a 26 year old is idiotic. Because when you trade for a 26 year old you get years 26, 27, 28, 29 and 30 assuming a 5 year deal. The way I look at these years is that all are prime years and that is what I said and the numbers of Agnes' studies back it up. The best year is 27, followed CLOSELY by the years closest to 27, meaning 25,26,27,28,29 and 30 these are all prime years. If you want to consider 28, 29 and 30 declining years from peak then you must also consider years 26, 25, and 24 declining years from peak(Yes I realize the players production is increasing, but years 24, 25 and 26 give you roughly equal production to years 28,29 and 30.) So when the Indians trade for a 22 year old Marte they will get sub-peak performance for age 22,23,24,25 and 26 on average. SO if one is to consider 28,29 and 30 declining years then one must also recognize the years prior to 27 are also sub-peak. Until a team can field a team comprised of just 27 year olds, well they will have to suffer with years 26,27,28,29 and 30 in Crisps case. In Crisp's case Boston received a player who at age 26-30 is in his prime years. i try to get players near peak when at all possible during a draft. I cannot always grab 27 year olds so I suffer with 24-30 year old players.

The Cow



........um......I agree!! 8-o :~(


....damn did I just say that? !+)


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Postby GotowarMissAgnes » Wed Dec 20, 2006 12:48 pm

The Cow wrote:Well I guess I should respond. First I never said that 27 was not the average or most common peak year. What I did say that pointing out that 28,29, and 30 are declining years when talking about a 26 year old is idiotic. Because when you trade for a 26 year old you get years 26, 27, 28, 29 and 30 assuming a 5 year deal. The way I look at these years is that all are prime years and that is what I said and the numbers of Agnes' studies back it up. The best year is 27, followed CLOSELY by the years closest to 27, meaning 25,26,27,28,29 and 30 these are all prime years. If you want to consider 28, 29 and 30 declining years from peak then you must also consider years 26, 25, and 24 declining years from peak(Yes I realize the players production is increasing, but years 24, 25 and 26 give you roughly equal production to years 28,29 and 30.) So when the Indians trade for a 22 year old Marte they will get sub-peak performance for age 22,23,24,25 and 26 on average. SO if one is to consider 28,29 and 30 declining years then one must also recognize the years prior to 27 are also sub-peak. Until a team can field a team comprised of just 27 year olds, well they will have to suffer with years 26,27,28,29 and 30 in Crisps case. In Crisp's case Boston received a player who at age 26-30 is in his prime years. i try to get players near peak when at all possible during a draft. I cannot always grab 27 year olds so I suffer with 24-30 year old players.

The Cow


Except that the Red Sox did not get 5 years of Crisp. They got ONE year of Crisp. After 2006 he was going to become a free agent at the time of the trade. Marte, meanwhile, was still not eligible. To retain Crisp, the Red Sox had to sign him to a 3 year 15.5 million dollar extension.

So, in essence, the Indians traded one year of a basically average OF approaching free agency who's performance is likely to plateau and then drop, even if you can retain him through free agency approaching free agency for 5 years of a promising and cheap young player

Whether Marte's performance is "sub-peak" and Crisp's performance is "peak" is irrelevant. One guy's peak can be below another guy's worst level of performance. Would you rather have Vlad's worst year or Neifi Perez's peak?

As I wrote in the initial thread, Marte was likely to outperform Crisp in 2006. He did. He's also likely to outperform Crisp in the next few years before he even reaches his own peak. Further, from a business perspective, the Indians traded a high cost player who they may not have been able to retain through free agency for a low cost player who was likely to perform better.

So, explain to me how my analysis of this deal was flawed and Cow is right?
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Postby The Cow » Wed Dec 20, 2006 4:25 pm

GotowarMissAgnes wrote:
The Cow wrote:Well I guess I should respond. First I never said that 27 was not the average or most common peak year. What I did say that pointing out that 28,29, and 30 are declining years when talking about a 26 year old is idiotic. Because when you trade for a 26 year old you get years 26, 27, 28, 29 and 30 assuming a 5 year deal. The way I look at these years is that all are prime years and that is what I said and the numbers of Agnes' studies back it up. The best year is 27, followed CLOSELY by the years closest to 27, meaning 25,26,27,28,29 and 30 these are all prime years. If you want to consider 28, 29 and 30 declining years from peak then you must also consider years 26, 25, and 24 declining years from peak(Yes I realize the players production is increasing, but years 24, 25 and 26 give you roughly equal production to years 28,29 and 30.) So when the Indians trade for a 22 year old Marte they will get sub-peak performance for age 22,23,24,25 and 26 on average. SO if one is to consider 28,29 and 30 declining years then one must also recognize the years prior to 27 are also sub-peak. Until a team can field a team comprised of just 27 year olds, well they will have to suffer with years 26,27,28,29 and 30 in Crisps case. In Crisp's case Boston received a player who at age 26-30 is in his prime years. i try to get players near peak when at all possible during a draft. I cannot always grab 27 year olds so I suffer with 24-30 year old players.

The Cow


Except that the Red Sox did not get 5 years of Crisp. They got ONE year of Crisp. After 2006 he was going to become a free agent at the time of the trade. Marte, meanwhile, was still not eligible. To retain Crisp, the Red Sox had to sign him to a 3 year 15.5 million dollar extension.

So, in essence, the Indians traded one year of a basically average OF approaching free agency who's performance is likely to plateau and then drop, even if you can retain him through free agency approaching free agency for 5 years of a promising and cheap young player

Whether Marte's performance is "sub-peak" and Crisp's performance is "peak" is irrelevant. One guy's peak can be below another guy's worst level of performance. Would you rather have Vlad's worst year or Neifi Perez's peak?

As I wrote in the initial thread, Marte was likely to outperform Crisp in 2006. He did. He's also likely to outperform Crisp in the next few years before he even reaches his own peak. Further, from a business perspective, the Indians traded a high cost player who they may not have been able to retain through free agency for a low cost player who was likely to perform better.

So, explain to me how my analysis of this deal was flawed and Cow is right?


Crisp signed that extension shortly after joining the Sox, which would give the Sox 4 years of Crisp, 26,27,28 and 29. Those are 4 prime years. Now Crisp is more likely to get back to his 2005 form where he posted a .810 OPS, nothing great, but better than anything Marte has done at the big league level. Now if we look at Crisp being 27 this year there is a good chance he posts a higher OPS than .810, but again you need to factor in that Crisp will steal about 20 bags or so. As far as Crisp being a high cost player, I don't see it, 3 years 15.5 mil is cheap in this market. One reason Crisp was traded was that he would not sign an extension with the Tribe. It should be noted that the Tribe signed David Dellucci to a 3 year 11.5 mil deal and they have Jason Michaels signed for, not sure here, but I believe around 4 mil. Those 2 are to platoon in left and I believe Michaels and Dellucci combined make more than Crisp. Yes the Tribe obtained a cheap 3B, but they had one in Kouz they just did not know it. San Diego thinks Kouz is good enough to start and I am on record as saying that I would rather have Kouz over Marte. So the Tribe didn't save any money on this deal when you consider they had to trade for Michaels and sign Dellucci to replace Crisp and they could start Kouz instead of Marte. I would much rather have Kouz and Crisp than MArte and Dellucci/Michaels.

Since when is a 3 year 15.5 mil a big money deal for the Red Sox??

I am going to have to add that Marte did not outperform Crisp last year when you factor in Crisps SBs or do you not count those?

Crisp was hurt last year, lets see how he does this year. As for Marte, I guess youth is his excuse. I have said in the past that Marte should post a higher OPS in his career than Crisp because Crisp is not a power guy he may hit 20 HRs, but thats about it. Crisp brings the dimension of speed which you fail to acknowledge and the ability to play CF, a position where speed is needed. Crisp could very well hit 20 HRs and steal 20 bags. Marte is more of a 30 HR 0 SB guy. Crisp should have the higher BA, Marte the higher OBP. When comparing these two players you must acknowledge the speed factor.

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Postby The Cow » Wed Dec 20, 2006 4:33 pm

J35J wrote:
The Cow wrote:Well I guess I should respond. First I never said that 27 was not the average or most common peak year. What I did say that pointing out that 28,29, and 30 are declining years when talking about a 26 year old is idiotic. Because when you trade for a 26 year old you get years 26, 27, 28, 29 and 30 assuming a 5 year deal. The way I look at these years is that all are prime years and that is what I said and the numbers of Agnes' studies back it up. The best year is 27, followed CLOSELY by the years closest to 27, meaning 25,26,27,28,29 and 30 these are all prime years. If you want to consider 28, 29 and 30 declining years from peak then you must also consider years 26, 25, and 24 declining years from peak(Yes I realize the players production is increasing, but years 24, 25 and 26 give you roughly equal production to years 28,29 and 30.) So when the Indians trade for a 22 year old Marte they will get sub-peak performance for age 22,23,24,25 and 26 on average. SO if one is to consider 28,29 and 30 declining years then one must also recognize the years prior to 27 are also sub-peak. Until a team can field a team comprised of just 27 year olds, well they will have to suffer with years 26,27,28,29 and 30 in Crisps case. In Crisp's case Boston received a player who at age 26-30 is in his prime years. i try to get players near peak when at all possible during a draft. I cannot always grab 27 year olds so I suffer with 24-30 year old players.

The Cow



........um......I agree!! 8-o :~(


....damn did I just say that? !+)


Jason


I will send you my fan club info shortly ;-7

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Postby The Cow » Wed Dec 20, 2006 4:36 pm

GotowarMissAgnes wrote:
wrveres wrote:
GotowarMissAgnes wrote:
wrveres wrote:Merry Christmas


Are you trying to pick a fight?


by saying merry christmas? :-?


Yeah!

What about Kwanzaa? Divali? Hanukkah? Alban Arthan? Festivus?

:-D


Admit it Agnes you love me, I am your hero :-D

The Cow

P.S. I am sending you and Yoda fan club info as well.
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Postby GotowarMissAgnes » Wed Dec 20, 2006 6:31 pm

The Cow wrote:Crisp signed that extension shortly after joining the Sox, which would give the Sox 4 years of Crisp, 26,27,28 and 29. Those are 4 prime years. Now Crisp is more likely to get back to his 2005 form where he posted a .810 OPS, nothing great, but better than anything Marte has done at the big league level. Now if we look at Crisp being 27 this year there is a good chance he posts a higher OPS than .810, but again you need to factor in that Crisp will steal about 20 bags or so. As far as Crisp being a high cost player, I don't see it, 3 years 15.5 mil is cheap in this market. One reason Crisp was traded was that he would not sign an extension with the Tribe. It should be noted that the Tribe signed David Dellucci to a 3 year 11.5 mil deal and they have Jason Michaels signed for, not sure here, but I believe around 4 mil. Those 2 are to platoon in left and I believe Michaels and Dellucci combined make more than Crisp. Yes the Tribe obtained a cheap 3B, but they had one in Kouz they just did not know it. San Diego thinks Kouz is good enough to start and I am on record as saying that I would rather have Kouz over Marte. So the Tribe didn't save any money on this deal when you consider they had to trade for Michaels and sign Dellucci to replace Crisp and they could start Kouz instead of Marte. I would much rather have Kouz and Crisp than MArte and Dellucci/Michaels.

Since when is a 3 year 15.5 mil a big money deal for the Red Sox??

I am going to have to add that Marte did not outperform Crisp last year when you factor in Crisps SBs or do you not count those?

Crisp was hurt last year, lets see how he does this year. As for Marte, I guess youth is his excuse. I have said in the past that Marte should post a higher OPS in his career than Crisp because Crisp is not a power guy he may hit 20 HRs, but thats about it. Crisp brings the dimension of speed which you fail to acknowledge and the ability to play CF, a position where speed is needed. Crisp could very well hit 20 HRs and steal 20 bags. Marte is more of a 30 HR 0 SB guy. Crisp should have the higher BA, Marte the higher OBP. When comparing these two players you must acknowledge the speed factor.

The Cow


Continuing yet another hopeless effort to educate my friend...

Last year, for the 1.5 million it cost the Indians to have Michaels, they got an OPS of 87. Crisp cost 2.75 million and posted an OPS of 80.
The Tribe lost that short term deal in what way?

Over the longer term, the Tribe intends to play Dellucci full time in LF, with Michaels as a 4th OF and possible platoon partner. Dellucci will cost 4 million less than Crisp, and even if you have to count a portion of Michaels salary in that, it ain't going to amount to a lot more 4 million over 3 years. At most, financially, the Indians pay out a bit more, and if they play DD full-time it's a 4 million savings.

Performance wise, let's be generous and assume that based on age Crisp will improve 5 percent each of the next 3 years, while DD will decline 5 percent. Current Marcel OPS predictions for 2007-2009 with those age adjustments are:
Crisp: 102, 103, 104
DD: 115, 114, 110

Less money, better predicted performance.
The Tribe lose that exchange in what way?

Kozmanoff is a 25 year old player. Last year, in limited at bats at MLB, he performed even worse than Marte did as a 22 year old, while in limited ABs in AAA he outperformed Marte. Prior to last year here are these two players with their minor league performances adjusted to major league EQA to control for park and league effects:

At age 19: Marte .280 KK NA
at age 20: Marte .266 KK NA
At age 21: Marte .276 KK .232
At age 22: Marte NA KK .265
At age 23: Marte NA KK .284
At age 24: Marte NA KK NA

Marte is a younger and steadier performer, but may have plateaued early. Kouzmanoff appears to have shown more development, but it could also be the fact that he is an older guy playing against younger competition. Right now both players appear to be at similar levels, but Marte is younger, thus more likely to make another big leap in his development. Both players cost the same.

This one is more uncertain, but I can't fault the Tribe for going with the guy who has the higher upside and costs no more than KK.

So, again, overall, how did the Tribe lose on this deal?
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Postby GotowarMissAgnes » Wed Dec 20, 2006 6:46 pm

Speed is important from a fantasy perspective, but that's not what we are talking about. Crisp's speed was actually a net negative from a baseball point of view during the 2003-2005 period, when his SB% was just 62%, 60%, and 71%. He was CS so often that he actually subtracted runs from the Indians performance.

Last year he was better. Still each CS counts 3 times as much as each SB. On net, Crisp's SBs added only 10 bases to the Red Sox net attack. It's hardly worth measuring as a contribution
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Postby The Cow » Wed Dec 20, 2006 8:19 pm

Speed helps Crisp go from 1st to third, 2nd to home, 1st to home, 3rd to home on a sac fly, speed also causes teams to make errors by hurrying their throws. Speed aids Crisp in running down fly balls etc... Solely measuring speed on CS% is weak you can do better. I have faith in you.

As for Dellucci and Michaels hey acording to you they are washed up over the hill geezers. How can they contribute? You gotta go with the 27 year old in Crisp.

I don't know where you are getting your information, but Dellucci and Michaels will be a platoon. There was an erroneous report that said Dellucci would start, but I believe that was started by his agent.

For the record I think Marte will be a bust, as you said it looks like he has plateaued. Until Marte shows me that he can make the necessary adjustments he looks like a bust. Kouz hit .379 last year with power he is the biggest reason the Tribe loses on this deal.

The Cow

What happened to your 28,29 and 30 being the declining years argument, I got a chuckle out of that.
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Postby bigken117 » Wed Dec 20, 2006 10:19 pm

The Cow wrote:For the record I think Marte will be a bust, as you said it looks like he has plateaued. Until Marte shows me that he can make the necessary adjustments he looks like a bust. Kouz hit .379 last year with power he is the biggest reason the Tribe loses on this deal.


Kouz was a 25 year old at AA. Remember when Billy Madison beat all the third graders at dodge ball? (I'm fully aware of his injury history.) I'm willing to gamble that Marte would do pretty well for himself in AA at Kouz's age...which is 3 years from now. Marte is only 22. Will he be the perennial All-Star some had him pegged as 2 years ago? Maybe, maybe not. Can he be a solid regular? I have no doubt. He has plenty of time to develop and make whatever adjustments you think need to be made.

As a Sox fan, I was disappointed we traded Marte for Crisp. And let's not forget...Marte is the sleeper of the week.
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Postby GotowarMissAgnes » Thu Dec 21, 2006 12:22 am

The Cow wrote:Speed helps Crisp go from 1st to third, 2nd to home, 1st to home, 3rd to home on a sac fly, speed also causes teams to make errors by hurrying their throws. Speed aids Crisp in running down fly balls etc... Solely measuring speed on CS% is weak you can do better. I have faith in you.


Bill James has detailed all those types of base advances in his books for several years. Over the past three years Crisp has averaged about 20 extra bases over Dellucci, counting the SB in that as well, and factoring out CS and getting caught advancing. It's nothing, but it's worth no more than a handfull of runs over a season. Not nearly enough to offset the rest of DD advantage.

The Cow wrote:As for Dellucci and Michaels hey acording to you they are washed up over the hill geezers. How can they contribute? You gotta go with the 27 year old in Crisp.

'
Which would you rather have Vlad at 35 or Neifi Perez at 27? What part of "declining does not equal bad" do you not understand?


The Cow wrote:I don't know where you are getting your information, but Dellucci and Michaels will be a platoon. There was an erroneous report that said Dellucci would start, but I believe that was started by his agent.


Ken Rosenthal says it's not a full platoon
http://msn.foxsports.com/mlb/story/6211856

And Indians GM Mark Shapiro says that the Tribe will "...give him the option of playing against left-handers'

Doesn't look like it's only his agent saying it won't be a pure platoon.

And, even if it is, you end up paying a little more than what it would have taken to keep Crisp, but you get more production, too.

The Cow wrote:For the record I think Marte will be a bust, as you said it looks like he has plateaued. Until Marte shows me that he can make the necessary adjustments he looks like a bust. Kouz hit .379 last year with power he is the biggest reason the Tribe loses on this deal.


Well, I would urge caution for anyone in assuming a 22 year old player has plateaued. Not unusual to see that, especially as a player moves up levels at the same time.

As bgken117 writes, maybe you should look more at how Kouz did against major league pitching, rather than beatin gup on minor leaguers.

The Cow wrote:What happened to your 28,29 and 30 being the declining years argument, I got a chuckle out of that.


Your lack of reading comprehension continues to amaze. As I wrote..."LET'S BE GENEROUS AND ASSUME THAT BASED ON AGE CRISP WILL IMPROVE 5 PERCENT EACH OF THE NEXT THREE YEARS..."

In other words, I made every effort to weight the situation in Crisp's favor, using assumptions that are contrary to what any normal person would expect. Even bending over backwards to try to make Crisp look good,his predicted performance falls far short of DD.

If I re-did that analysis using the numbers that should be used for typical player improvement/decline during CC and DD's ages, it would look like this:
Crisp: 100, 96, 93
DD: 117, 116, 112

Chuckle on that...if you are capable of comprehending it.
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