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bigken117 wrote:Without looking it up, I would imagine that speed would see the most steep decline after the age of 27, but power numbers would remain largely unaffected - if not go up as a player learns to adjust to breaking pitches, works out more etc. - so long as a player stays healthy.
The age 28-29 is usually the end for running backs, not corner outfielders.
Steep deciline I would agree but more times than not when player older than 28 his best seasons have already happened.
You can see here that about 10% peak at age 27. The study finds it's 47% at 27 or before and 53% afterwards, as someone else in the thread thought was true and contrary to my comment.
This repeats an earlier analysis that showed the percentage of players peaking at each age.
If you are a great player and your peak is 140 or 150 percent better than the average, declining 2 or 3 percent per year means you are still significantly better than the average player. It's only after several years of that decline (which accelerates as you get to age 34), that you become average or below.
If you are Coco Crisp and at age 26 over the last three years you have basically been an average player, and your lifetime performance so far is as a slightly below average player, and you start to decline 3 percent per year, it's only a short matter of time before you are a below average player, and are looking over your shoulder at the guy on the bench hungry for your job.
Declining doesn't equal bad. It depends on where you started.
Well I guess I should respond. First I never said that 27 was not the average or most common peak year. What I did say that pointing out that 28,29, and 30 are declining years when talking about a 26 year old is idiotic. Because when you trade for a 26 year old you get years 26, 27, 28, 29 and 30 assuming a 5 year deal. The way I look at these years is that all are prime years and that is what I said and the numbers of Agnes' studies back it up. The best year is 27, followed CLOSELY by the years closest to 27, meaning 25,26,27,28,29 and 30 these are all prime years. If you want to consider 28, 29 and 30 declining years from peak then you must also consider years 26, 25, and 24 declining years from peak(Yes I realize the players production is increasing, but years 24, 25 and 26 give you roughly equal production to years 28,29 and 30.) So when the Indians trade for a 22 year old Marte they will get sub-peak performance for age 22,23,24,25 and 26 on average. SO if one is to consider 28,29 and 30 declining years then one must also recognize the years prior to 27 are also sub-peak. Until a team can field a team comprised of just 27 year olds, well they will have to suffer with years 26,27,28,29 and 30 in Crisps case. In Crisp's case Boston received a player who at age 26-30 is in his prime years. i try to get players near peak when at all possible during a draft. I cannot always grab 27 year olds so I suffer with 24-30 year old players.
The Cow
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by chadlincoln » Tue Dec 19, 2006 12:51 pm 
