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Postby The Cow » Mon Dec 18, 2006 11:47 pm

GotowarMissAgnes wrote:To follow up on Vincente Padilla. In the pre-season Yahoo ADPs, he did not even crack the top 240 players.

He ended up ranked 110 overall among players.

I'll let the rest of you judge whether that was a good sleeper pick while I wait for Cow to admit his mistake.


The only reason Padilla was ranked 110 was because of his very unpredictable 15 wins, you know this. A 4.50 ERA and a 1.38 WHIP is waiver wire fodder in all but the deepest of leagues. His 2006 numbers are very similar to his 2005 numbers 4.71 ERA 1.50 WHIP or his 2004 numbers 4.52 ERA 1.34 WHIP. The difference is the wins. So Padilla basically pitched last year as he did the two previous years the only difference is that he was luckier. But since you claimed that after you saw him pitch you decided he was a good sleeper, I can only assume 1 of 2 things:
1. You thought he was going to pitch better in '06 meaning a better ERA and WHIP, which did not happen.
2. You thought he would luck into 15 wins with a 4.50 ERA and 1.38 WHIP, was this what you thought?

One last thing, I am going to take a wild guess that you will not draft Padilla anywhere near 110. Right?

IMO to be a good sleeper a player must improve upon his numbers from the previous years. Which in Padilla's case he did not except for his win total, which is due to luck.

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Postby GotowarMissAgnes » Tue Dec 19, 2006 12:09 am

Are you really this dense?

Which league was he pitching in for 2004 and 2005?

And, for 2006?

Is there a difference between the average number of runs and hits between the two different leagues?

How many IP did he pitch in 2004 and 2005?

And in 2006?

Do you think that MIGHT have had something to do with the number of decisions and wins he had?

You're a hoot, Cow. I'm going to have to go say my cow prayer again.
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Postby The Cow » Tue Dec 19, 2006 12:12 am

GotowarMissAgnes wrote:
The Cow wrote:Agnes where do I start?


How about with the truth?

The Cow wrote: Lets see well it looks as though you padded your stats a bit here when you count Bagwell, Nevin, A. Boone, Koskie, B. Williams and Finley as wins when you tab them as players to avoid. Who drafted these guys anyway? I mean everyone knew not to draft these guys. You may as well have said well I think Johan, Pujols, Wright, Reyes, Utley, AROD, Vlad etc would be good picks and count those no-brainers as wins.



Yet, several people vigorously chimed in that Boone and Bagwell did not fit in that category. Maybe if you had read the thread instead of speaking with 20-20 hindsight, you'd make sense.

The Cow wrote:Padilla a sleeper you say? If by a sleeper you mean sleep on this guy and don't draft him you are correct. His stats:
4.50 ERA(ouch), 1.38 WHIP(double ouch), 15 wins (will take it very solid, but not with a 4.50 ERA and a 1.38 WHIP), 156 K's/200IP(solid won't hurt or help)


And where did he end up ranked in Yahoo, Cow?

The Cow wrote:You say Bedard and Cabrera are a push?? After reading your post you were wishy-washy on both, but it sounded like you were higher on Cabrera so here are the stats:
Bedard 15 wins 3.76 ERA 1.35 WHIP 171K's/196 IP
Cabrera 9 wins 4.74 ERA 1.58 WHIP 157K's/148 IP
Clearly Bedard is better. In no way are they a push.


Maybe if you understood what I was saying, you'd get somewhere. People asked me frequently about these two all spring, since I'm an O's fan. My advice to them was consistently that I thought expectations on both of them were way too high. Bedard, I argued was the safer bet for overall performance, but had an injury-prone past. Cabrera was riskier, both in the sense that he might have a huge breakout, but also in the sense that he had potential to be much much worse than Bedard. I pegged Cabrera's breakout as probably only a 10 percent chance.

So, saying this was a push was saying that I was basically off on Bedard, in that for the first time in years he stayed healthy a full season and produced better than I expected. But, I was basically on for Cabrera, in that he did not break out and was pretty much like last year or even a little worse.

Your lack of reading comprehension is REALLY bad if you think I was saying that Cabrera was better than Bedard.


The Cow wrote:Finally a look at Crisp and Marte, the stats:
Crisp .264 BA 58 runs 8 HRs 36 RBI 22 SB (ops .702)
Marte .226 BA 20 runs 5 HR 23 RBI 0 SB (OPS .707)

You say its too early to call, yes it is. Both players sucked last year. Crisp has an excuse at least, he was injured. Marte well once again he tanked. Marte was being campained as a huge power hitter well he had an OPS of .702, Crisp who is a CF and a speed guy, nobody thinks he is a power hitter, had a .702 OPS and 22 SBs whcih are not factored into OPS. Crisp had the better year so chalk a W up for me.
The Cow


Crisp did not have a better year. He had a crappy year, tailing off even more than anyone including me expected. That OPS is not adjusted for park and Crisp played in the better park for offense. Adjust for park, and Marte had the better year on a rate basis, as I said.

Remember this: "Boston will be saying Johnny who?"

"Crisp- Does it all, not as much power as you would like more of a leadoff or #2 hitter. But if the Sox need a CF well this guy can be an all-star. .310 20/20 RBIs and runs depends on the team."

Further, your analysis here ignores several things:
1. Marte is 4 years younger.

2. Marte played half the season at AAA, where he held his own as a 22 year old in AAA ball, even banging 15 homers in 391 PAs. That's on track for 23 dingers in a full season as a 22 year old in AAA ball, playing in a pitcher's park.

3. Marte's MLB numbers have a hidden power surge as well. It's hidden because his batting average was low, a number that's subject to a lot of randomness. Pro-rate his extra base hits to 600 PAs and what do you find? A 22 year old who was on track for 17 HRs and 51 2Bs in a pitcher's park.

So, now the Red Sox have an injured player entering his declining years who is going to cost some major $ to retain. And the Tribe still has a cheap player who looks poised to make a big leap next year. In fact, they are so confident about Marte, they got rid of Kouzmanoff!


Well if you would have factored in Crisp's 22 SBs, which you didn't because it will show that you were wrong, you will find that Crisp clearly had the better fantasy year, last I checked SBs count. So you say Crisp is entering his declining years huh? Well last I checked which was 2 minutes ago he is 27 years old. A little tip most people consider a 27 year old player as a player entering his prime. Marte being 4 years younger, 23, would then only have 4 years before he hits his declining years according to your reasoning. So I guess we should all consider Pujols as entering his declining years as he is 27, LOL. Do your homework. At least Crisp had an excuse for his down year, he was injured. Marte's excuse would be youth, but you say he is poised for a breakout after his stellar year last year. Crisp has shown that he can be an effective player at the major league level. Marte has done nothing except fall on every prospect list known to man over the last 2 years. For the record I would rather have Kouz over Marte. I just bought my Pads cap yesterday.

The Cow

P.S. If you want to explain how turning 27 means you are entering your declining years, that would be great, lol.
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Postby GotowarMissAgnes » Tue Dec 19, 2006 12:19 am

The Cow wrote:Well if you would have factored in Crisp's 22 SBs, which you didn't because it will show that you were wrong, you will find that Crisp clearly had the better fantasy year, last I checked SBs count. So you say Crisp is entering his declining years huh? Well last I checked which was 2 minutes ago he is 27 years old. A little tip most people consider a 27 year old player as a player entering his prime. Marte being 4 years younger, 23, would then only have 4 years before he hits his declining years according to your reasoning. So I guess we should all consider Pujols as entering his declining years as he is 27, LOL. Do your homework. At least Crisp had an excuse for his down year, he was injured. Marte's excuse would be youth, but you say he is poised for a breakout after his stellar year last year. Crisp has shown that he can be an effective player at the major league level. Marte has done nothing except fall on every prospect list known to man over the last 2 years. For the record I would rather have Kouz over Marte. I just bought my Pads cap yesterday.

The Cow

P.S. If you want to explain how turning 27 means you are entering your declining years, that would be great, lol.



After 27 comes what, Cow? 28, then 29, then 30....Crisp is entering those declining years. I know it's hard when you run out of fingers and toes, but try to work on it.

And if you had bothered to look at the thread, you would see that it had nothing to do with each player's fantasy value. It rather dealt with whether this was a good baseball trade for the two teams and an evaluation of the two players from a baseball, not fantasy ball, perspective.

Trying to dodge this one, Cow, is a pathetic low for you. When I was wrong about Soriano, I didn't dodge it. I was a man and said so. Learn from that example. Repeat after me...Cow was wrong about Crisp. That wasn't so hard was it?
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Postby The Cow » Tue Dec 19, 2006 12:27 am

GotowarMissAgnes wrote:Are you really this dense?

Which league was he pitching in for 2004 and 2005?

And, for 2006?

Is there a difference between the average number of runs and hits between the two different leagues?

How many IP did he pitch in 2004 and 2005?

And in 2006?

Do you think that MIGHT have had something to do with the number of decisions and wins he had?

His ERA and WHIP have remained essentially the same over the last 3 years. No matter how you spin it a 4.50 ERA and 1.38 WHIP will hurt, not help, your fantasy team. In 2005 he pitched 147 innings, in 2006, 200. So in 53 innings he garnered 6 more wins, that averages out to a win every 9 IP. Which if he had pitched at that pace in 2006 he would have had 22 wins. In 2006 Padilla averaged a win every 13.3 IP, in 2005 he averaged a win every 16.3 IP, in 2004 a win every 16.4 IP. So clearly he was luckier as his wins/IP increased. If Padilla had averaged a win every 16 IP in 2006 as he did in 2005 and 2004 he would have won 12.5 games last year. So he lucked out and grabbed 2.5 more wins last year, which makes a significant difference in the Yahoo rankings.

The Cow

You're a hoot, Cow. I'm going to have to go say my cow prayer again.
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Postby The Cow » Tue Dec 19, 2006 12:36 am

GotowarMissAgnes wrote:
The Cow wrote:Well if you would have factored in Crisp's 22 SBs, which you didn't because it will show that you were wrong, you will find that Crisp clearly had the better fantasy year, last I checked SBs count. So you say Crisp is entering his declining years huh? Well last I checked which was 2 minutes ago he is 27 years old. A little tip most people consider a 27 year old player as a player entering his prime. Marte being 4 years younger, 23, would then only have 4 years before he hits his declining years according to your reasoning. So I guess we should all consider Pujols as entering his declining years as he is 27, LOL. Do your homework. At least Crisp had an excuse for his down year, he was injured. Marte's excuse would be youth, but you say he is poised for a breakout after his stellar year last year. Crisp has shown that he can be an effective player at the major league level. Marte has done nothing except fall on every prospect list known to man over the last 2 years. For the record I would rather have Kouz over Marte. I just bought my Pads cap yesterday.

The Cow

P.S. If you want to explain how turning 27 means you are entering your declining years, that would be great, lol.



After 27 comes what, Cow? 28, then 29, then 30....Crisp is entering those declining years. I know it's hard when you run out of fingers and toes, but try to work on it.

And if you had bothered to look at the thread, you would see that it had nothing to do with each player's fantasy value. It rather dealt with whether this was a good baseball trade for the two teams and an evaluation of the two players from a baseball, not fantasy ball, perspective.

Trying to dodge this one, Cow, is a pathetic low for you. When I was wrong about Soriano, I didn't dodge it. I was a man and said so. Learn from that example. Repeat after me...Cow was wrong about Crisp. That wasn't so hard was it?


So 28,29 and 30 are declining years?????? Seriously???? Johan is 28 next year, 86 him, VMart is 28 next year 86 him, Berkman is 31 next year, Soriano is 29 next year, Utley 28, Aramis 28, Vlad is done at 31, Bay is 28, Beltran 30, Wells 28 etc..... I guess all of these players are in for a decline. To me these look like players in their prime, but you say they are in their declining years. Seriously???

LOL,
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Postby acapulco » Tue Dec 19, 2006 12:52 am

Miss Agnes, besides the Cow poem, here is something from Proverbs 26:

Answer not a fool according to his folly, let thou also be like unto him.
Answer a fool according to his folly, lest he be wise in his own conceit.
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Postby Yoda » Tue Dec 19, 2006 1:09 am

The Cow wrote:
GotowarMissAgnes wrote:
The Cow wrote:Well if you would have factored in Crisp's 22 SBs, which you didn't because it will show that you were wrong, you will find that Crisp clearly had the better fantasy year, last I checked SBs count. So you say Crisp is entering his declining years huh? Well last I checked which was 2 minutes ago he is 27 years old. A little tip most people consider a 27 year old player as a player entering his prime. Marte being 4 years younger, 23, would then only have 4 years before he hits his declining years according to your reasoning. So I guess we should all consider Pujols as entering his declining years as he is 27, LOL. Do your homework. At least Crisp had an excuse for his down year, he was injured. Marte's excuse would be youth, but you say he is poised for a breakout after his stellar year last year. Crisp has shown that he can be an effective player at the major league level. Marte has done nothing except fall on every prospect list known to man over the last 2 years. For the record I would rather have Kouz over Marte. I just bought my Pads cap yesterday.

The Cow

P.S. If you want to explain how turning 27 means you are entering your declining years, that would be great, lol.



After 27 comes what, Cow? 28, then 29, then 30....Crisp is entering those declining years. I know it's hard when you run out of fingers and toes, but try to work on it.

And if you had bothered to look at the thread, you would see that it had nothing to do with each player's fantasy value. It rather dealt with whether this was a good baseball trade for the two teams and an evaluation of the two players from a baseball, not fantasy ball, perspective.

Trying to dodge this one, Cow, is a pathetic low for you. When I was wrong about Soriano, I didn't dodge it. I was a man and said so. Learn from that example. Repeat after me...Cow was wrong about Crisp. That wasn't so hard was it?


So 28,29 and 30 are declining years?????? Seriously???? Johan is 28 next year, 86 him, VMart is 28 next year 86 him, Berkman is 31 next year, Soriano is 29 next year, Utley 28, Aramis 28, Vlad is done at 31, Bay is 28, Beltran 30, Wells 28 etc..... I guess all of these players are in for a decline. To me these look like players in their prime, but you say they are in their declining years. Seriously???

LOL,
The Cow


Wow... lol... where do you get your stuff from Cow? :-D
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Postby The Cow » Tue Dec 19, 2006 1:14 am

Yoda wrote:
The Cow wrote:
GotowarMissAgnes wrote:
The Cow wrote:Well if you would have factored in Crisp's 22 SBs, which you didn't because it will show that you were wrong, you will find that Crisp clearly had the better fantasy year, last I checked SBs count. So you say Crisp is entering his declining years huh? Well last I checked which was 2 minutes ago he is 27 years old. A little tip most people consider a 27 year old player as a player entering his prime. Marte being 4 years younger, 23, would then only have 4 years before he hits his declining years according to your reasoning. So I guess we should all consider Pujols as entering his declining years as he is 27, LOL. Do your homework. At least Crisp had an excuse for his down year, he was injured. Marte's excuse would be youth, but you say he is poised for a breakout after his stellar year last year. Crisp has shown that he can be an effective player at the major league level. Marte has done nothing except fall on every prospect list known to man over the last 2 years. For the record I would rather have Kouz over Marte. I just bought my Pads cap yesterday.

The Cow

P.S. If you want to explain how turning 27 means you are entering your declining years, that would be great, lol.



After 27 comes what, Cow? 28, then 29, then 30....Crisp is entering those declining years. I know it's hard when you run out of fingers and toes, but try to work on it.

And if you had bothered to look at the thread, you would see that it had nothing to do with each player's fantasy value. It rather dealt with whether this was a good baseball trade for the two teams and an evaluation of the two players from a baseball, not fantasy ball, perspective.

Trying to dodge this one, Cow, is a pathetic low for you. When I was wrong about Soriano, I didn't dodge it. I was a man and said so. Learn from that example. Repeat after me...Cow was wrong about Crisp. That wasn't so hard was it?


So 28,29 and 30 are declining years?????? Seriously???? Johan is 28 next year, 86 him, VMart is 28 next year 86 him, Berkman is 31 next year, Soriano is 29 next year, Utley 28, Aramis 28, Vlad is done at 31, Bay is 28, Beltran 30, Wells 28 etc..... I guess all of these players are in for a decline. To me these look like players in their prime, but you say they are in their declining years. Seriously???

LOL,
The Cow


Wow... lol... where do you get your stuff from Cow? :-D


I was pointing out how idiotic it is for someone(Agnes) to think that 28,29, 30 are the declining years. When Crisp was traded he was 26, both Crisp(26) and Marte(22) were young at the time of the trade and are still young. Why someone would bring up declining years for a 26 year old, smells of desperation.

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Postby ChipperJonesFanatic » Tue Dec 19, 2006 1:18 am

The Cow has spoken.
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