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GTWMA Final 2006 Scoreboard

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GTWMA Final 2006 Scoreboard

Postby GotowarMissAgnes » Sun Dec 17, 2006 12:32 am

I promised several of you I would do this after the season...
So, it took several weeks, but I finally tracked down all my 2006 predictions. As you can probably guess, I’m not shy about sharing my opinion or going out on a limb!

Might as well start with the big kahuna
Soriano L 0-1
http://www.fantasybaseballcafe.com/foru ... ht=predict
I think I was just a little off on that one.

Patterson/Granderson L, L 0-3
http://www.fantasybaseballcafe.com/foru ... 1&start=90
Granderson tailed off badly and was shut down from SB early. Patterson had a pretty incredible run.

Washburn W, 1-3
http://www.fantasybaseballcafe.com/foru ... p?t=168325
In that thread I also hit on naming Suppan, Santana, Verlander (called him pretty good),
http://www.fantasybaseballcafe.com/foru ... ?t=167850&
and Marquis as being worth a pick in that range. I missed on naming Chen and Maholm as good picks here. I hit on Eaton, Chacin, Astacio, Pineiro, Lohse, and Davies as not being worth a pick at that point. And I missed on Wang, Trachsel, El Duque, Rogers, Padilla, Olsen, Moyer, and Wright as being good picks at that point. All those hits and misses basically balance out, so I’m just dropping them.

Later in the Spring after watching Padilla, I pegged him as a sleeper. I also hit with McClung and Brazelton and missed with Loe and Bautista in that thread. I’ll just call those even, too.
Markakis W 2-3 (several threads on this last spring)
http://www.fantasybaseballcafe.com/foru ... &&start=15

Chad Tracy W 3-3
http://www.fantasybaseballcafe.com/foru ... ht=predict

Halladay W 4-3
http://www.fantasybaseballcafe.com/foru ... ht=predict
Roy had me worried sometimes, but pulled it out for me.

Ocabrera, L
Finley, W
Nevin, W
Bagwell, W
Koskie, W
Aboone, W
Bernie, W, 10-4
http://www.fantasybaseballcafe.com/foru ... ht=predict

Randy Winn W 11-4
Ian Kinsler W 12-4
Mark Loretta, L 12-5
http://www.fantasybaseballcafe.com/foru ... p?t=163249

Broberts W 13-5
http://www.fantasybaseballcafe.com/foru ... &&start=15

Beltre, W
Bell, W
Koskie L
Rolen L
Figgins W
Nomar L
Glaus L
Blalock L 16-10
http://www.fantasybaseballcafe.com/foru ... ht=predict

Sizemore versus Damon W 17-10. Grady was definitely worth a third round pick
http://www.fantasybaseballcafe.com/foru ... ?t=161079&

How could I forget Utley versus Wright? It was back and forth all year long, but in the end…That’s a big L. 17-11
http://www.fantasybaseballcafe.com/foru ... &&start=15

Willingham W 18-11
Doumit L 18-12
Larue/Valentin L, L 18-14
Kendall L 18-15
Barajas and Buck W W 20-15
McCann L 20-16
Nailed Willingham, but had a little trouble with other catchers. Big miss on McCann
http://www.fantasybaseballcafe.com/foru ... &&start=45

The Pirates’ pickups? I say that’s a W 21-16
http://www.fantasybaseballcafe.com/foru ... &&start=15

Jay Gibbons, breakout material? I dun think so. But even my predictions were high, so I won’t count that as a win
http://www.fantasybaseballcafe.com/foru ... ht=gibbons

Pegged Mike Lowell as a sleeper. W 22-16, Mixed bag on some other BA predictions in that thread.
http://www.fantasybaseballcafe.com/foru ... &&start=15

Overbay and Nick Johnson hand me a pair of losses. Can’t count Erstad as a win. Nailed Craig Wilson. 23-19
http://www.fantasybaseballcafe.com/foru ... ght=wilson

I’m not going to count Jered Weaver. That’s a no-brainer
http://www.fantasybaseballcafe.com/foru ... ght=weaver

As I said, the O’s would regret Maine and Julio for Benson, as Maine out-performed Anna’s boy W 24-19
http://www.fantasybaseballcafe.com/foru ... p?t=165405

Bedard and Cabrera’s a push to me. I cautioned people about being too optimistic on either. Bedard stayed healthy and proved to be better than I thought. Cabrera gave you what I thought. There are several other threads on the two of these guys.
http://www.fantasybaseballcafe.com/foru ... ?t=175668&

Zito is God thought my Fielder Dreams were irrational. I said I’d be surprised if he didn’t hit at least 25 homers and that a .270 average sounded right. .271 and 28 HRs sounds like a winner to me. W 25-19
http://www.fantasybaseballcafe.com/foru ... ?t=171810&

Too early to call this one, but after one year my bovine buddy, like Coco, looks to be burned to a Crisp, while Marte outplayed him on a per game basis (e.g., OPS+ of 83 to 80)
http://www.fantasybaseballcafe.com/foru ... ?t=162428&

Weeks got hurt, of course, so this lock was broken L 25-20
http://www.fantasybaseballcafe.com/foru ... ?t=162057&


And I think that’s it! I searched on my name and the terms “predict”, “bet”, and “project”. I think I got them all, but if you remember one I missed, add it to the thread! I know I owe a few of you some additions to my sig…that’ll be up soon.

Say a prayer for me :)
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Postby wrveres » Sun Dec 17, 2006 3:54 am

Merry Christmas ;-D
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Postby AcidRock23 » Sun Dec 17, 2006 9:27 am

.556 BA, congratulations!! ;-D
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Postby GotowarMissAgnes » Sun Dec 17, 2006 2:13 pm

AcidRock23 wrote:.556 BA, congratulations!! ;-D


I was thinking more along the lines of winning percentage, so that equates to a 90 win season :)

Or you could just say my motto is "I'm slightly better than a coin flip!"

It was fun to see how close I came on some (like Fielder) and how far I missed on others (I don't think anyone will ever let me forget Soriano...rightly so).
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Postby The Cow » Mon Dec 18, 2006 1:59 pm

GotowarMissAgnes wrote:
AcidRock23 wrote:.556 BA, congratulations!! ;-D


I was thinking more along the lines of winning percentage, so that equates to a 90 win season :)

Or you could just say my motto is "I'm slightly better than a coin flip!"

It was fun to see how close I came on some (like Fielder) and how far I missed on others (I don't think anyone will ever let me forget Soriano...rightly so).


Agnes where do I start? Lets see well it looks as though you padded your stats a bit here when you count Bagwell, Nevin, A. Boone, Koskie, B. Williams and Finley as wins when you tab them as players to avoid. Who drafted these guys anyway? I mean everyone knew not to draft these guys. You may as well have said well I think Johan, Pujols, Wright, Reyes, Utley, AROD, Vlad etc would be good picks and count those no-brainers as wins.

Padilla a sleeper you say? If by a sleeper you mean sleep on this guy and don't draft him you are correct. His stats:
4.50 ERA(ouch), 1.38 WHIP(double ouch), 15 wins (will take it very solid, but not with a 4.50 ERA and a 1.38 WHIP), 156 K's/200IP(solid won't hurt or help)

You say Bedard and Cabrera are a push?? After reading your post you were wishy-washy on both, but it sounded like you were higher on Cabrera so here are the stats:
Bedard 15 wins 3.76 ERA 1.35 WHIP 171K's/196 IP
Cabrera 9 wins 4.74 ERA 1.58 WHIP 157K's/148 IP
Clearly Bedard is better. In no way are they a push.

Finally a look at Crisp and Marte, the stats:
Crisp .264 BA 58 runs 8 HRs 36 RBI 22 SB (ops .702)
Marte .226 BA 20 runs 5 HR 23 RBI 0 SB (OPS .707)
You say its too early to call, yes it is. Both players sucked last year. Crisp has an excuse at least, he was injured. Marte well once again he tanked. Marte was being campained as a huge power hitter well he had an OPS of .702, Crisp who is a CF and a speed guy, nobody thinks he is a power hitter, had a .702 OPS and 22 SBs whcih are not factored into OPS. Crisp had the better year so chalk a W up for me.

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Postby GotowarMissAgnes » Mon Dec 18, 2006 7:17 pm

The Cow wrote:Agnes where do I start?


How about with the truth?

The Cow wrote: Lets see well it looks as though you padded your stats a bit here when you count Bagwell, Nevin, A. Boone, Koskie, B. Williams and Finley as wins when you tab them as players to avoid. Who drafted these guys anyway? I mean everyone knew not to draft these guys. You may as well have said well I think Johan, Pujols, Wright, Reyes, Utley, AROD, Vlad etc would be good picks and count those no-brainers as wins.


Yet, several people vigorously chimed in that Boone and Bagwell did not fit in that category. Maybe if you had read the thread instead of speaking with 20-20 hindsight, you'd make sense.

The Cow wrote:Padilla a sleeper you say? If by a sleeper you mean sleep on this guy and don't draft him you are correct. His stats:
4.50 ERA(ouch), 1.38 WHIP(double ouch), 15 wins (will take it very solid, but not with a 4.50 ERA and a 1.38 WHIP), 156 K's/200IP(solid won't hurt or help)


And where did he end up ranked in Yahoo, Cow?

The Cow wrote:You say Bedard and Cabrera are a push?? After reading your post you were wishy-washy on both, but it sounded like you were higher on Cabrera so here are the stats:
Bedard 15 wins 3.76 ERA 1.35 WHIP 171K's/196 IP
Cabrera 9 wins 4.74 ERA 1.58 WHIP 157K's/148 IP
Clearly Bedard is better. In no way are they a push.


Maybe if you understood what I was saying, you'd get somewhere. People asked me frequently about these two all spring, since I'm an O's fan. My advice to them was consistently that I thought expectations on both of them were way too high. Bedard, I argued was the safer bet for overall performance, but had an injury-prone past. Cabrera was riskier, both in the sense that he might have a huge breakout, but also in the sense that he had potential to be much much worse than Bedard. I pegged Cabrera's breakout as probably only a 10 percent chance.

So, saying this was a push was saying that I was basically off on Bedard, in that for the first time in years he stayed healthy a full season and produced better than I expected. But, I was basically on for Cabrera, in that he did not break out and was pretty much like last year or even a little worse.

Your lack of reading comprehension is REALLY bad if you think I was saying that Cabrera was better than Bedard.


The Cow wrote:Finally a look at Crisp and Marte, the stats:
Crisp .264 BA 58 runs 8 HRs 36 RBI 22 SB (ops .702)
Marte .226 BA 20 runs 5 HR 23 RBI 0 SB (OPS .707)

You say its too early to call, yes it is. Both players sucked last year. Crisp has an excuse at least, he was injured. Marte well once again he tanked. Marte was being campained as a huge power hitter well he had an OPS of .702, Crisp who is a CF and a speed guy, nobody thinks he is a power hitter, had a .702 OPS and 22 SBs whcih are not factored into OPS. Crisp had the better year so chalk a W up for me.
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Crisp did not have a better year. He had a crappy year, tailing off even more than anyone including me expected. That OPS is not adjusted for park and Crisp played in the better park for offense. Adjust for park, and Marte had the better year on a rate basis, as I said.

Remember this: "Boston will be saying Johnny who?"

"Crisp- Does it all, not as much power as you would like more of a leadoff or #2 hitter. But if the Sox need a CF well this guy can be an all-star. .310 20/20 RBIs and runs depends on the team."

Further, your analysis here ignores several things:
1. Marte is 4 years younger.

2. Marte played half the season at AAA, where he held his own as a 22 year old in AAA ball, even banging 15 homers in 391 PAs. That's on track for 23 dingers in a full season as a 22 year old in AAA ball, playing in a pitcher's park.

3. Marte's MLB numbers have a hidden power surge as well. It's hidden because his batting average was low, a number that's subject to a lot of randomness. Pro-rate his extra base hits to 600 PAs and what do you find? A 22 year old who was on track for 17 HRs and 51 2Bs in a pitcher's park.

So, now the Red Sox have an injured player entering his declining years who is going to cost some major $ to retain. And the Tribe still has a cheap player who looks poised to make a big leap next year. In fact, they are so confident about Marte, they got rid of Kouzmanoff!
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Postby Yoda » Mon Dec 18, 2006 8:18 pm

GotowarMissAgnes wrote:
The Cow wrote:Agnes where do I start?


How about with the truth?

The Cow wrote: Lets see well it looks as though you padded your stats a bit here when you count Bagwell, Nevin, A. Boone, Koskie, B. Williams and Finley as wins when you tab them as players to avoid. Who drafted these guys anyway? I mean everyone knew not to draft these guys. You may as well have said well I think Johan, Pujols, Wright, Reyes, Utley, AROD, Vlad etc would be good picks and count those no-brainers as wins.


Yet, several people vigorously chimed in that Boone and Bagwell did not fit in that category. Maybe if you had read the thread instead of speaking with 20-20 hindsight, you'd make sense.

The Cow wrote:Padilla a sleeper you say? If by a sleeper you mean sleep on this guy and don't draft him you are correct. His stats:
4.50 ERA(ouch), 1.38 WHIP(double ouch), 15 wins (will take it very solid, but not with a 4.50 ERA and a 1.38 WHIP), 156 K's/200IP(solid won't hurt or help)


And where did he end up ranked in Yahoo, Cow?

The Cow wrote:You say Bedard and Cabrera are a push?? After reading your post you were wishy-washy on both, but it sounded like you were higher on Cabrera so here are the stats:
Bedard 15 wins 3.76 ERA 1.35 WHIP 171K's/196 IP
Cabrera 9 wins 4.74 ERA 1.58 WHIP 157K's/148 IP
Clearly Bedard is better. In no way are they a push.


Maybe if you understood what I was saying, you'd get somewhere. People asked me frequently about these two all spring, since I'm an O's fan. My advice to them was consistently that I thought expectations on both of them were way too high. Bedard, I argued was the safer bet for overall performance, but had an injury-prone past. Cabrera was riskier, both in the sense that he might have a huge breakout, but also in the sense that he had potential to be much much worse than Bedard. I pegged Cabrera's breakout as probably only a 10 percent chance.

So, saying this was a push was saying that I was basically off on Bedard, in that for the first time in years he stayed healthy a full season and produced better than I expected. But, I was basically on for Cabrera, in that he did not break out and was pretty much like last year or even a little worse.

Your lack of reading comprehension is REALLY bad if you think I was saying that Cabrera was better than Bedard.


The Cow wrote:Finally a look at Crisp and Marte, the stats:
Crisp .264 BA 58 runs 8 HRs 36 RBI 22 SB (ops .702)
Marte .226 BA 20 runs 5 HR 23 RBI 0 SB (OPS .707)

You say its too early to call, yes it is. Both players sucked last year. Crisp has an excuse at least, he was injured. Marte well once again he tanked. Marte was being campained as a huge power hitter well he had an OPS of .702, Crisp who is a CF and a speed guy, nobody thinks he is a power hitter, had a .702 OPS and 22 SBs whcih are not factored into OPS. Crisp had the better year so chalk a W up for me.
The Cow


Crisp did not have a better year. He had a crappy year, tailing off even more than anyone including me expected. That OPS is not adjusted for park and Crisp played in the better park for offense. Adjust for park, and Marte had the better year on a rate basis, as I said.

Remember this: "Boston will be saying Johnny who?"

"Crisp- Does it all, not as much power as you would like more of a leadoff or #2 hitter. But if the Sox need a CF well this guy can be an all-star. .310 20/20 RBIs and runs depends on the team."

Further, your analysis here ignores several things:
1. Marte is 4 years younger.

2. Marte played half the season at AAA, where he held his own as a 22 year old in AAA ball, even banging 15 homers in 391 PAs. That's on track for 23 dingers in a full season as a 22 year old in AAA ball, playing in a pitcher's park.

3. Marte's MLB numbers have a hidden power surge as well. It's hidden because his batting average was low, a number that's subject to a lot of randomness. Pro-rate his extra base hits to 600 PAs and what do you find? A 22 year old who was on track for 17 HRs and 51 2Bs in a pitcher's park.

So, now the Red Sox have an injured player entering his declining years who is going to cost some major $ to retain. And the Tribe still has a cheap player who looks poised to make a big leap next year. In fact, they are so confident about Marte, they got rid of Kouzmanoff!


The Cow wrong? Never... ;-7
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Postby GotowarMissAgnes » Mon Dec 18, 2006 8:49 pm

To follow up on Vincente Padilla. In the pre-season Yahoo ADPs, he did not even crack the top 240 players.

He ended up ranked 110 overall among players.

I'll let the rest of you judge whether that was a good sleeper pick while I wait for Cow to admit his mistake.
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Postby bigh0rt » Mon Dec 18, 2006 8:54 pm

Nice read man. ;-D
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Postby Yoda » Mon Dec 18, 2006 11:30 pm

GotowarMissAgnes wrote:To follow up on Vincente Padilla. In the pre-season Yahoo ADPs, he did not even crack the top 240 players.

He ended up ranked 110 overall among players.

I'll let the rest of you judge whether that was a good sleeper pick while I wait for Cow to admit his mistake.


You are beating a dead horse. Debating with Cow is pointless.
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