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The Fantasy Man's Top 25 for 2007

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Postby Halo Homers » Sun Dec 17, 2006 12:56 am

For the most part I like the list.

Things I like:

1) Berkman at #8 - His list properly put Berkman into the later part of the first round.
2) Morneau at #16 - I think he will even deliver bigger numbers than last year.

Dislike

4) Reyes at #4 - In his post, he says he thinks Reyes can reach 20/70, but then predicts 15/60. I don't think 15/60 qualfies for the #4 spot in the draft. Should be back 3 or 4 spots.

12) Santana at #12 - Logically this is too low, but I don't know if I were sitting at #9 or #10 if I would take Santana. Taking pitching in the first round is tough thing to do. So, maybe his #12 is not go bad.
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Postby davidmarver » Sun Dec 17, 2006 2:03 am

I hate debating over the top players in the league -- leagues are won with late round decisions -- but I still don't understand how Carlos Zambrano is ranked above Jake Peavy.

<pre>IP H ER BB SO ERA WHIP W
571.6 495 199 165 604 3.13 1.15 39
647 506 226 282 600 3.14 1.22 46</pre>

They're close, but Peavy's got the advantage on him in the past three seasons. Zambrano's edge is wins, but since Peavy has played on better teams, that shows you something about his run-support during that period.
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Postby Bloody Sox » Tue Dec 19, 2006 6:42 pm

greenandgold wrote:
BravesGuy wrote:
chadlincoln wrote:Santana at 12? I quit reading.

I don't draft pitchers in the first round either.


Do you not think Santana is a top 5 pick? Blanket statements like this or

I rank him lower because hitters are more valuable than pitchers!


make me discount the opinion. What does this mean anyway - hitters are more valuable then pitchers? In 5x5 there are 5 catagories for pitchers and 5 for hitters. For a majority of hitters I can find a pitcher worth more.
[/quote]

The problem is that you can't just blindly say a player is worth his past performance. Obviously, if Santana performs to the same level as the last three years then he is a Top 3 pick. The problem is that a pitcher is MUCH more likely to not reach expectations than a hitter, mostly due to a higher injury risk. Santana has stayed pretty healthy, which makes me worried he's due break down a bit. [EDIT: this is where I think people's ranks of Santana hinge... if you think he's going to stay healthy, then he's a Top 3-4 pick, if you are worried about risk and want more of a sure thing, then he's a Top 10-12 pick... both are valid]

I don't think the author meant to say that hitters are worth more than pitchers, I think he was saying that you can better predict the value of hitters than pitchers. It is well known that pitching performances vary wildly over that of hitters. And please don't point out counter-examples - obviously they exist - I'm just talking on the whole.

And your last statement makes no sense "For a majority of hitters I can find a pitcher worth more". On its face, I think this statement is probably false, but more importantly even if it was true, it would only be true in hindsight. The more important question would be "For the majority of hitters I can predict which pitchers will be worth more". That's the trick.
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Postby greenandgold » Tue Dec 19, 2006 7:33 pm

Bloody Sox wrote:
greenandgold wrote:
BravesGuy wrote:
chadlincoln wrote:Santana at 12? I quit reading.

I don't draft pitchers in the first round either.


Do you not think Santana is a top 5 pick? Blanket statements like this or

I rank him lower because hitters are more valuable than pitchers!


make me discount the opinion. What does this mean anyway - hitters are more valuable then pitchers? In 5x5 there are 5 catagories for pitchers and 5 for hitters. For a majority of hitters I can find a pitcher worth more.


The problem is that you can't just blindly say a player is worth his past performance. Obviously, if Santana performs to the same level as the last three years then he is a Top 3 pick. The problem is that a pitcher is MUCH more likely to not reach expectations than a hitter, mostly due to a higher injury risk. Santana has stayed pretty healthy, which makes me worried he's due break down a bit. [EDIT: this is where I think people's ranks of Santana hinge... if you think he's going to stay healthy, then he's a Top 3-4 pick, if you are worried about risk and want more of a sure thing, then he's a Top 10-12 pick... both are valid]


What does this mean? I read it as you tend to overrate pitchers, therefore they don't live up to your expectations - that is totally independent of value. Obviously injuries make a player worth less then expected but this is one of the reasons Sanata is so valuable - he doesn't seem to have injury problems. It seems silly to predict that a ptcher will have injury based on their previous lack of injury, I guess you are just reaching to make your point here.

I don't think the author meant to say that hitters are worth more than pitchers, I think he was saying that you can better predict the value of hitters than pitchers. It is well known that pitching performances vary wildly over that of hitters. And please don't point out counter-examples - obviously they exist - I'm just talking on the whole.


This is funny because it is EXACTLY what he does say, and what is with your "please don't point out counter-examples" statement - you don't want to see the facts that refute your vagueness?

And your last statement makes no sense "For a majority of hitters I can find a pitcher worth more". On its face, I think this statement is probably false, but more importantly even if it was true, it would only be true in hindsight. The more important question would be "For the majority of hitters I can predict which pitchers will be worth more". That's the trick.


My last statement, on the surface, means that Santana is worth more then most every hitter - I don't see how you can argue with that.
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Postby Pirates4Life » Tue Dec 19, 2006 7:51 pm

Considering what a ridiculously big advantage Utley has over every other 2B, he belongs in or at least just outside the top 5. Soriano, Hall, and Cuddyer no longer qualify there, and unless you expect someone like Weeks or Kendrick to take a huge step, there's no-one even close to him.
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Postby RyanK » Wed Dec 20, 2006 4:20 am

RocketsDWM wrote:To many "!" in the blurbs about the players.


I agree
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Postby The Miner Part 2 » Wed Dec 20, 2006 7:50 am

i can't believe how far derrek lee is slipping in all of these rankings. no way that happens in leagues in chicago.. :-/
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Postby Bloody Sox » Wed Dec 20, 2006 11:21 am

greenandgold wrote:
Bloody Sox wrote:The problem is that you can't just blindly say a player is worth his past performance. Obviously, if Santana performs to the same level as the last three years then he is a Top 3 pick. The problem is that a pitcher is MUCH more likely to not reach expectations than a hitter, mostly due to a higher injury risk. Santana has stayed pretty healthy, which makes me worried he's due break down a bit. [EDIT: this is where I think people's ranks of Santana hinge... if you think he's going to stay healthy, then he's a Top 3-4 pick, if you are worried about risk and want more of a sure thing, then he's a Top 10-12 pick... both are valid]


What does this mean? I read it as you tend to overrate pitchers, therefore they don't live up to your expectations - that is totally independent of value. Obviously injuries make a player worth less then expected but this is one of the reasons Sanata is so valuable - he doesn't seem to have injury problems. It seems silly to predict that a ptcher will have injury based on their previous lack of injury, I guess you are just reaching to make your point here.


No - I don't overrate pitchers. Pitchers simply are more likely not to reach expectations because they are more likely to get hurt. This is especially true of power pitchers. Therefore, all things being equal - Santana is more likely to get hurt than an offensive guy who's value is equal to Santana (and who has been as injury free as Santana). It's not as if the author is saying to draft Santana in the 4th round... he's just knocking him down a few pegs.

greenandgold wrote:
Bloody Sox wrote:I don't think the author meant to say that hitters are worth more than pitchers, I think he was saying that you can better predict the value of hitters than pitchers. It is well known that pitching performances vary wildly over that of hitters. And please don't point out counter-examples - obviously they exist - I'm just talking on the whole.


This is funny because it is EXACTLY what he does say, and what is with your "please don't point out counter-examples" statement - you don't want to see the facts that refute your vagueness?


OK - fine, he says exactly that. The fact that in virtually every draft there are 10x more hitters drafted in the first 3 rounds than pitchers proves his point I guess.

And my "don't point out counter-examples" quote (I notice you ignore the fact that I said they obviously exist) was going to the fact that I was making a general statement about hitters being easier to project than pitchers. But by all means, please present some facts.

greenandgold wrote:
Bloody Sox wrote:And your last statement makes no sense "For a majority of hitters I can find a pitcher worth more". On its face, I think this statement is probably false, but more importantly even if it was true, it would only be true in hindsight. The more important question would be "For the majority of hitters I can predict which pitchers will be worth more". That's the trick.


My last statement, on the surface, means that Santana is worth more then most every hitter - I don't see how you can argue with that.


Um, OK. Who's arguing with Santana? But that's not even close to what you wrote.

Bottom line is that you assert that the author's opinion is worthless because he ranks Santana 12th, when there is a perfectly logical reason for doing so. Myself, I'd rank him about 8th.
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Postby Dan Lambskin » Thu Dec 21, 2006 10:56 am

it's not perfect, but not a bad list atr all
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Postby JustAnotherYanksFan » Thu Dec 21, 2006 5:58 pm

dcskater619 wrote:
greenandgold wrote:make me discount the opinion. What does this mean anyway - hitters are more valuable then pitchers? In 5x5 there are 5 catagories for pitchers and 5 for hitters. For a majority of hitters I can find a pitcher worth more.


exactly... HOWEVER, a starting pitcher doesnt contribute to the category "saves," which makes hitters like pujols, beltran, soriano, etc.. far more valuable then ANY starting pitcher. ;-D


A starting pitcher may not contribute saves, but you could also look at it this way: in a standard league, a position player is only responsible for 1/9 of your games, whereas an ace SP is responsible for between 1/5 and 1/6 of your total innings pitched. So in that sense, an ace SP carries actually carries more weight than an elite hitter.

Also, there's the fact that Ryan Howard doesn't contribute to SB. Does that make him any less valuable than Jason Bay? Of course not - he contributes a lot in the categories that he does contribute in, and that's what gives him value. So it doesn't matter if Santana gets 0 saves - as long as he's putting up elite numbers in ERA, WHIP, wins and K's, then he's capable of being as valuable as any hitter out there.
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