Jonml wrote:Need help to decide on what five minor league keepers to keep in 12 team AL only league. We will be expanding from 5 to10 minor league keepers in upcomming 5 player draft.
Our league is also going from 10 ML keepers to keeping all players after the completion of this years minor & ML drafts. All minor and ML players can be kept by teams as long as they wish.
AL-ML Keepers(need to cut one)
Minor League keepers(need to cut two)
Our league also uses 5X5 rules with holds and OBS. I think I might need Pedroia to fill 2B slot at ML level and Nesheck would be a valuable reliever since we count holds as one of our catagories. I am looking at cutting Chavez from the ML roster and Rowell & Erbe from the minor league roster. I pick 3rd in the 5 player minor league draft that will be held & hope to get Rowell back but am worried he may be selected by one of the other two teams. Should I risk loosing Pedroia or another player instead? What would you do?
Thanks in advance for any advice.
Tough call. Do I understand correctly that:
1) you must trim your MiLB roster to 5;
2) your league then holds a draft for 5 more guys?
If so, I'm guessing that means other teams will also be cutting guys before the draft? Or just you?
From your minor league squad, you can almost certainly cut Neshek - I actually thought he was not eligible as a rookie anymore, but have not looked it up. Regardless, Holds are really tough to predict from one year to the next, and he has pretty low value if someone leapfrogs him the MN heirarchy.
Then, you really have to go by whether you are the kind of person with risk tolerance, or want the surer thing. if you have risk tolerance, do not cut Erbe or Adenhart - both are young enough that their ceiling could be really high (or low, or course). Erbe's numbers are something pretty special, even at that level. I think both of those picthers have higher ceilings than some of your hitters....but their chances of reaching are also much lower.
I would NOT cut Snider. He and Rowell have the chance to be the best hitters in that group. I would not cut Pedrioa because you have no 2B, and he is likely to be at least average (and help you in 2007, also). I would cut Ellsbury, because even the most optimistic projections don't have him ranked with Sizemore and Wells.
Plus, if you REALLY wanted Ellsbury back, there is a good chance you could get him at #3 if everyone else is also cutting people. If your whole group keeps 5 minor leaguers before the draft and you then pick 3rd, he would have to be ranked in the top 62 by only two guys in your league. And chances are, at least two other teams will leave top-40 talent exposed, thus letting Ellsbury (top 50 - 75, I think) fall to you - unless someone else better comes along.
I actually think Erbe and Adenhart are really high risk, but your pitching is already much weaker than hitting, and gambling on young pitching studs thus makes more sense for you.
Edited to add: I also agree with cutting Pedrioa, for the reasons Thomasspsssss outlined above. I just think that if he DOES develop into something special, well, he.s filling a mjor hole for you.