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Keeper league help. Cutting from 7 to 5 players.

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Keeper league help. Cutting from 7 to 5 players.

Postby Jonml » Mon Dec 11, 2006 4:36 pm

Need help to decide on what five minor league keepers to keep in 12 team AL only league. We will be expanding from 5 to10 minor league keepers in upcomming 5 player draft.

Our league is also going from 10 ML keepers to keeping all players after the completion of this years minor & ML drafts. All minor and ML players can be kept by teams as long as they wish.

AL-ML Keepers(need to cut one)
C-Mauer
1B-Morneau
SS-Tejada
3B-Chavez
CF-Sizemore
CF-V. Wells
C-B.J.Ryan
C-Nathan
RP-Zumaya
SP-Lackey
SP-Haren

Minor League keepers(need to cut two)
2B-Pedroia
OF-T.Snider
3B-B.Rowell
OF-Ellsbury
SP-Adenhart
SP-B.Erbe
RP-P.Neshek

Our league also uses 5X5 rules with holds and OBS. I think I might need Pedroia to fill 2B slot at ML level and Nesheck would be a valuable reliever since we count holds as one of our catagories. I am looking at cutting Chavez from the ML roster and Rowell & Erbe from the minor league roster. I pick 3rd in the 5 player minor league draft that will be held & hope to get Rowell back but am worried he may be selected by one of the other two teams. Should I risk loosing Pedroia or another player instead? What would you do?

Thanks in advance for any advice.
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Postby thomasps3 » Mon Dec 11, 2006 5:41 pm

here is the way this should break for your Milb roster:
1. Rowell
1a. Adenhart
2. Ellsbury
3. Erbe
4. Pedroia
5. Neshak
6. Snider(who is this guy?)

A middle relief guy like Neshak will easily be available in the draft, and your theory on keeping Pedroia for his obp, at the expense of arguably your best prospect is off-base. Drop Pedroia, and I am almost positive he will be there at the third pick. I am also sure you coul dfind someone else at that spot who might be more appealing as well.....he has limited upside, and last year, he looked thoroughly overmatched at the big league level.
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Postby cubbies1 » Mon Dec 11, 2006 6:44 pm

travis snider was selected in this years rookie draft 18 years old played in 54 games and tore rookie league apart .325avg 11hr .412obp 979ops in 194 abs. i would hold onto him, as he actually performed better than Rowell
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Postby Koby Schellenger » Mon Dec 11, 2006 6:51 pm

I'd dump Lackey from your ML roster. You can find additional pitching in the draft that will be just as good if not better.

From your MiL roster, I'd cut Ellsbury for sure and probably Erbe. Ellsbury is a nice prospect but you just don't need him. He's not that great of a fantasy prospect. Dumping Erbe may be tough to swallow but, as with Lackey, I think you can find solid pitching yet in the draft. This will solidify your offense for 2007 (minus one OF) and give you a good start on holds, saves and K's. But it will force you to draft starting pitching early and often.
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Postby Jonml » Mon Dec 11, 2006 7:32 pm

Koby Schellenger wrote:I'd dump Lackey from your ML roster. You can find additional pitching in the draft that will be just as good if not better.

From your MiL roster, I'd cut Ellsbury for sure and probably Erbe. Ellsbury is a nice prospect but you just don't need him. He's not that great of a fantasy prospect. Dumping Erbe may be tough to swallow but, as with Lackey, I think you can find solid pitching yet in the draft. This will solidify your offense for 2007 (minus one OF) and give you a good start on holds, saves and K's. But it will force you to draft starting pitching early and often.



I think I agree with you on Erbe and Ellsbury. I think both would be available in the draft at my #3 pick & would have to decide on what one to loose. Like you said I don't need Ellsbury.

I don't know if cutting Lackey is a great idea. We are a 12 team AL only league & have a minimum IP rule to deal with also & don't see replacing Lackey in the draft an option when it's my turn to pick. All the other good SP are already kept & I will eventually have Rowell at 3B. Deciding on which ML keeper I need to cut does not happen until March. I believe my strength to repeat as league champion will come from pitching & might be able to move Chavez later for a good propspect or draft pick. The top challenging teams are overlaoded with offense & keeping Chavez may not help enough. Especially if he has another year like this past one. :)
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Postby sockeye » Tue Dec 12, 2006 12:39 am

thomasps3 wrote:here is the way this should break for your Milb roster:
1. Rowell
1a. Adenhart
2. Ellsbury
3. Erbe
4. Pedroia
5. Neshak
6. Snider(who is this guy?)

A middle relief guy like Neshak will easily be available in the draft, and your theory on keeping Pedroia for his obp, at the expense of arguably your best prospect is off-base. Drop Pedroia, and I am almost positive he will be there at the third pick. I am also sure you coul dfind someone else at that spot who might be more appealing as well.....he has limited upside, and last year, he looked thoroughly overmatched at the big league level.


I love advice like this. " I have no idea who this player is, but you should cut him".
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Re: Keeper league help. Cutting from 7 to 5 players.

Postby sockeye » Tue Dec 12, 2006 12:53 am

Jonml wrote:Need help to decide on what five minor league keepers to keep in 12 team AL only league. We will be expanding from 5 to10 minor league keepers in upcomming 5 player draft.

Our league is also going from 10 ML keepers to keeping all players after the completion of this years minor & ML drafts. All minor and ML players can be kept by teams as long as they wish.

AL-ML Keepers(need to cut one)
C-Mauer
1B-Morneau
SS-Tejada
3B-Chavez
CF-Sizemore
CF-V. Wells
C-B.J.Ryan
C-Nathan
RP-Zumaya
SP-Lackey
SP-Haren

Minor League keepers(need to cut two)
2B-Pedroia
OF-T.Snider
3B-B.Rowell
OF-Ellsbury
SP-Adenhart
SP-B.Erbe
RP-P.Neshek

Our league also uses 5X5 rules with holds and OBS. I think I might need Pedroia to fill 2B slot at ML level and Nesheck would be a valuable reliever since we count holds as one of our catagories. I am looking at cutting Chavez from the ML roster and Rowell & Erbe from the minor league roster. I pick 3rd in the 5 player minor league draft that will be held & hope to get Rowell back but am worried he may be selected by one of the other two teams. Should I risk loosing Pedroia or another player instead? What would you do?

Thanks in advance for any advice.


Tough call. Do I understand correctly that:

1) you must trim your MiLB roster to 5;
2) your league then holds a draft for 5 more guys?

If so, I'm guessing that means other teams will also be cutting guys before the draft? Or just you?

From your minor league squad, you can almost certainly cut Neshek - I actually thought he was not eligible as a rookie anymore, but have not looked it up. Regardless, Holds are really tough to predict from one year to the next, and he has pretty low value if someone leapfrogs him the MN heirarchy.

Then, you really have to go by whether you are the kind of person with risk tolerance, or want the surer thing. if you have risk tolerance, do not cut Erbe or Adenhart - both are young enough that their ceiling could be really high (or low, or course). Erbe's numbers are something pretty special, even at that level. I think both of those picthers have higher ceilings than some of your hitters....but their chances of reaching are also much lower.

I would NOT cut Snider. He and Rowell have the chance to be the best hitters in that group. I would not cut Pedrioa because you have no 2B, and he is likely to be at least average (and help you in 2007, also). I would cut Ellsbury, because even the most optimistic projections don't have him ranked with Sizemore and Wells.

Plus, if you REALLY wanted Ellsbury back, there is a good chance you could get him at #3 if everyone else is also cutting people. If your whole group keeps 5 minor leaguers before the draft and you then pick 3rd, he would have to be ranked in the top 62 by only two guys in your league. And chances are, at least two other teams will leave top-40 talent exposed, thus letting Ellsbury (top 50 - 75, I think) fall to you - unless someone else better comes along. ;-)

I actually think Erbe and Adenhart are really high risk, but your pitching is already much weaker than hitting, and gambling on young pitching studs thus makes more sense for you.

Good luck.

Edited to add: I also agree with cutting Pedrioa, for the reasons Thomasspsssss outlined above. I just think that if he DOES develop into something special, well, he.s filling a mjor hole for you.
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Postby sockeye » Tue Dec 12, 2006 1:06 am

From your major league roster, dropping Zumaya would be an easy choice for me. He's a middle reliever, no guarantee for holds, had a sore arm last year, and fits the profile as the kind of guy who the league could catch on to in his sophomore season. He's a sexy article in the Cafe right now, but your starting pitching is thin enough in a 12-team dynasty league that you'd be better off lockign up Lackey. Sometimes I think people forget that the upside of a prospect (for their team) is no greater than someone they already have in the fold. And right now, it looks like you need Lackey in 2007 more than Zumaya.
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Postby raiders_umpire » Tue Dec 12, 2006 10:25 am

I would drop Zumaya from my major league squad. He is very good, but just does not have a role this year on the Tigers that makes a have to own in fantasy baseball.

On your minors squad, I would drop Neshek and Ellsbury. Neshek is just a MR and not worth the spot in most leauges. The last spot comes down to Ellsbury and Erbe. I would cut Ellsbury especially with Sizemore already in your CF spot, and Erbe also has a good live arm.
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Postby cubbies1 » Tue Dec 12, 2006 6:56 pm

raiders_umpire wrote:I would drop Zumaya from my major league squad. He is very good, but just does not have a role this year on the Tigers that makes a have to own in fantasy baseball.

On your minors squad, I would drop Neshek and Ellsbury. Neshek is just a MR and not worth the spot in most leauges. The last spot comes down to Ellsbury and Erbe. I would cut Ellsbury especially with Sizemore already in your CF spot, and Erbe also has a good live arm.


the league counts holds as well as saves
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