Arlo wrote:Apologies, I'm still confused... If Soriano is better than the league average in every category, shouldn't his value be over 500?
I know it seems irrevelant, but I added all five categories then divided by 5 for 5 categories. Soriano's total score was 1456, while Pierre's was 1472 .... This is all a result of the huge differential in Sb's. The avg there was 7? Pierre scores 790 in that category alone.
So all categories evenly, Pierre is the number one pick? No. But he should be a first round pick. No one player can win you a category alone, but Pierre sure comes close.
I'm not sure what I would have done this year without Pierre. He was extremely valuable to me.
Yes doctor, I am sick. Sick of those who are spineless. Sick of those who feel self-entitled. Sick of those who are hypocrites. Yes doctor, an army is forming. Yes doctor, there will be a war. Yes doctor, there will be blood.....
I have one idea for how to eliminate the bias towards steals: eliminate steals from the equation! Okay, okay, sounds crazy, I know, but I do remember that when I used to use a similar system that it was always difficult to eliminate the huge bonus the big stolen base guys got.
That's not to say that someone like Pierre is generally undervalued (though I wouldn't say he's the most valuable fantasy player in baseball). Given, Pierre alone can guarantee that you finish in the top 3 or 4 of stolen bases, and that's pretty valuable. But remember that these rankings are presumably going to be used in a real-life draft. Keep in mind that folks tend to undervalue stolen bases.
'Eliminate' is probably the wrong word to use. 'Isolate' might be better. Run the analysis without the stolen base category. Then also rank players based on stolen bases (I like using one of the metrics above, producing a ratio based either upon league average or, perhaps better here, based on the MLB leader).
Then, in a real life draft, you have to use some knowledge of when you think others in your league will start grabbing stolen base guys. It's like saves. Most leagues I'm in have 'closer runs' somewhere between the 6th - 8th rounds. Top closers tend to be more valuable than a 6th to 8th round pick, but we wait to pick them anyways, based upon what we know about when closers tend to get picked. Admittedly, closers are fragile critters, but how many stolen base guys see a huge drop in production from one year to the next? (I'm looking at you, Castillo.)
So maybe we should start treating steals like saves. It might be good enough for draft purposes to have a good idea of where you can get stolen bases, and to not be afraid to take a Pierre in say, round 4 or 5.
wrveres, any chance you could run the analysis minus the stolen bases? That might be interesting. Also, where are you downloading your data from? I'd like to be able to download the season stats into an excel friendly file. Thanks.
stupid Autosum.. I had some final totals wring. I fixed them now. I think that may have led to some confusion Arlo.
this is the top 250 based upon AB's ..
All categories equal ...
top 100 from the list ....
Last Name Team TOTAL/5 Pierre Fla 221.31 Beltran KC 210.12 Soriano NYY 209.07 Crawford TB 198.11 Sheffield Atl 187.16 Rodriguez Tex 187.11 Podsednik Mil 182.80 Renteria StL 177.89 Sanchez Det 173.96 Suzuki Sea 169.71 Boone Sea 166.43 GarciaparraBos 165.08 Wilson Col 164.09 Pujols StL 163.09 Lee CWS 162.13 Lee Fla 159.31 Boone Cin 157.16 Abreu Phi 155.87 Damon Bos 155.22 Furcal Atl 153.79 Bagwell Hou 152.26 Bonds SF 151.73 Cabrera Mon 149.75 Lofton ChC 149.05 Baldelli TB 147.19 Delgado Tor 146.16 Mondesi Ari 145.25 Thome Phi 143.62 Rolen StL 142.93 Winn Sea 140.96 Sexson Mil 140.59 Sanders Pit 139.49 Berroa KC 138.85 Wells Tor 138.56 Roberts LA 138.05 EncarnacionFla 137.85 Ramirez Bos 137.30 Helton Col 136.58 Young SF 136.15 Tejada Oak 134.47 Ordonez CWS 134.30 Jones Atl 134.09 Lopez Atl 130.80 Giles Atl 129.97 Chavez Oak 129.65 Giambi NYY 129.37 Hidalgo Hou 128.22 Anderson Ana 127.61 Palmeiro Tex 126.64 Finley Ari 126.41 Everett CWS 125.93 Sosa ChC 124.83 Huff TB 123.91 Cameron Sea 123.65 Thomas CWS 123.50 Kennedy Ana 122.38 Payton Col 121.28 Young Tex 120.92 Gonzalez Ari 120.76 Berkman Hou 120.29 Castillo Fla 119.99 Rollins Phi 118.99 Edmonds StL 118.89 Jones Atl 118.39 Guerrero Mon 117.97 Grissom SF 117.92 Wilkerson Mon 117.60 Lowell Fla 116.67 Hunter Min 116.17 Ibanez KC 114.74 Rodriguez Fla 114.61 Polanco Phi 114.15 Jones Min 113.79 Relaford KC 113.24 Valentin CWS 113.12 Posada NYY 113.06 Nixon Bos 112.74 Blalock Tex 111.74 Roberts Bal 111.52 Kent Hou 110.57 Bradley Cle 109.71 Bradley Cle 109.71 Anderson TB 108.87 Ortiz Bos 108.75 Conine Fla 108.41 Ramirez ChC 108.12 Guillen Oak 107.89 Millar Bos 107.83 Batista Bal 107.38 Young Det 106.97 Giles SD 106.57 Matos Bal 106.37 Burnitz LA 105.85 Koskie Min 105.73 Green LA 105.48 Patterson ChC 105.45 Jenkins Mil 104.63 Ensberg Hou 104.18 Guzman Min 104.05 DaVanon Ana 104.02
this is the same stats, divided by 4. excluding SB's .. top 100 from the list ....
Last Name Team Total -SB's Pujols StL 189 Delgado Tor 183 Rodriguez Tex 182 Thome Phi 180 Sheffield Atl 179 Helton Col 171 Sexson Mil 170 Bonds SF 168 Lopez Atl 164 Wilson Col 163 Ramirez Bos 163 Wells Tor 161 Boone Sea 159 Bagwell Hou 157 Sosa ChC 156 Giambi NYY 156 Jones Atl 155 Soriano NYY 155 Thomas CWS 154 Palmeiro Tex 152 Huff TB 149 GarciaparraBos 149 Lee CWS 148 Edmonds StL 146 Jones Atl 142 Anderson Ana 141 Ordonez CWS 141 Rolen StL 139 Beltran KC 138 Chavez Oak 138 Tejada Oak 138 Lowell Fla 137 Ortiz Bos 136 Gonzalez Ari 136 Lee Fla 135 Posada NYY 135 Berkman Hou 135 Blalock Tex 134 Payton Col 133 Everett CWS 133 Hidalgo Hou 133 Guillen Oak 132 Jenkins Mil 131 Ramirez ChC 129 Sanders Pit 129 Nixon Bos 129 Abreu Phi 128 Young Det 128 Hunter Min 127 Boone Cin 127 Millar Bos 126 Gibbons Bal 123 Martinez Sea 123 Batista Bal 122 Giles SD 121 Conine Fla 120 Guerrero Mon 120 Kent Hou 120 Giles Atl 120 Alou ChC 120 Ibanez KC 119 Renteria StL 119 Mueller Bos 118 Burnitz LA 117 Valentin CWS 117 Matsui NYY 117 Furcal Atl 116 Teixeira Tex 115 Mondesi Ari 115 EncarnacionFla 115 Durazo Oak 115 Varitek Bos 114 Cabrera Mon 114 Grissom SF 114 Green LA 114 Rodriguez Fla 113 Finley Ari 112 White KC 112 Young Tex 112 HillenbrandAri 111 Berroa KC 110 Ensberg Hou 109 Suzuki Sea 109 Hernandez Oak 108 Cruz SF 108 Walker Col 108 Walker Bos 108 Gerut Cle 108 Castilla Atl 108 Wilkerson Mon 107 Winn Sea 106 Salmon Ana 106 Stewart Min 105 Lee TB 105 Gonzalez Tex 104 Dunn Cin 104 Biggio Hou 104 Randa KC 104 Cameron Sea 103 Damon Bos 103
Interesting ... Pierre score a 79 and come in ranked at 186 overall.
As far as numbers... I just did a cut and paste from rototimes. But I Need to find another source because I want Positions and Rototimes doesn't show that.. Be careful when copying from a site. Alot of thime they will list a player twice if he ahs been traded. IE Kenny Lofton might have PIT stats and CHC stats, on "some" web sites.