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Ok , so where are the "Excell Guys/Girls?"

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Postby wrveres » Sun Oct 05, 2003 5:19 pm

Arlo wrote:
wrveres wrote:But basically I used this formula...

League Avg/Player Total*100 as was mentioned in here earlier. This actually skews SB's heavily. Or it put them into perspective, depending upon how you look at it ..

Ok first sample .. 200 Ab's or more Both Leagues...
League Average's
Hr's .. 14.7
RBI's .. 60
SB's .. 7.13
Runs .. 62.28
BA .. .274
(exp. HR's Soriano ... (14.7/38*100)

I'm confused... the more home runs a player has, the lower his score? Sorry if I'm missing something...


ooops... I wrote the formula backwords LOL
(exp. HR's Soriano ... (38/14.7*100) LOL..
sorry..

Highest points ...not lowest ..
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Postby DK » Sun Oct 05, 2003 5:21 pm

oh, that makes sense... ;-D
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Postby Arlo » Sun Oct 05, 2003 6:27 pm

Apologies, I'm still confused... If Soriano is better than the league average in every category, shouldn't his value be over 500?
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Postby wrveres » Sun Oct 05, 2003 8:04 pm

Arlo wrote:Apologies, I'm still confused... If Soriano is better than the league average in every category, shouldn't his value be over 500?


I know it seems irrevelant, but I added all five categories then divided by 5 for 5 categories. Soriano's total score was 1456, while Pierre's was 1472 .... This is all a result of the huge differential in Sb's. The avg there was 7? Pierre scores 790 in that category alone.

So all categories evenly, Pierre is the number one pick? No. But he should be a first round pick. No one player can win you a category alone, but Pierre sure comes close.
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Postby Absolutely Adequate » Sun Oct 05, 2003 8:26 pm

The guy over at baseballnotebook.com seems to think that Pierre was the most valuable this season too.
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Postby Madison » Sun Oct 05, 2003 10:44 pm

I'm not sure what I would have done this year without Pierre. He was extremely valuable to me.
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Postby DK » Mon Oct 06, 2003 9:16 am

hm...makes me rethink where to draft him..
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Postby ramble2 » Mon Oct 06, 2003 11:08 am

I have one idea for how to eliminate the bias towards steals: eliminate steals from the equation! Okay, okay, sounds crazy, I know, but I do remember that when I used to use a similar system that it was always difficult to eliminate the huge bonus the big stolen base guys got.

That's not to say that someone like Pierre is generally undervalued (though I wouldn't say he's the most valuable fantasy player in baseball). Given, Pierre alone can guarantee that you finish in the top 3 or 4 of stolen bases, and that's pretty valuable. But remember that these rankings are presumably going to be used in a real-life draft. Keep in mind that folks tend to undervalue stolen bases.

'Eliminate' is probably the wrong word to use. 'Isolate' might be better. Run the analysis without the stolen base category. Then also rank players based on stolen bases (I like using one of the metrics above, producing a ratio based either upon league average or, perhaps better here, based on the MLB leader).

Then, in a real life draft, you have to use some knowledge of when you think others in your league will start grabbing stolen base guys. It's like saves. Most leagues I'm in have 'closer runs' somewhere between the 6th - 8th rounds. Top closers tend to be more valuable than a 6th to 8th round pick, but we wait to pick them anyways, based upon what we know about when closers tend to get picked. Admittedly, closers are fragile critters, but how many stolen base guys see a huge drop in production from one year to the next? (I'm looking at you, Castillo.)

So maybe we should start treating steals like saves. It might be good enough for draft purposes to have a good idea of where you can get stolen bases, and to not be afraid to take a Pierre in say, round 4 or 5.

wrveres, any chance you could run the analysis minus the stolen bases? That might be interesting. Also, where are you downloading your data from? I'd like to be able to download the season stats into an excel friendly file. Thanks.
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Postby DK » Mon Oct 06, 2003 11:54 am

i wouldn't eliminate them completely, but like i said grade SB's on a curve. i think it might even it out a bit.
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Postby wrveres » Mon Oct 06, 2003 1:08 pm

LOL
stupid Autosum.. I had some final totals wring. I fixed them now. I think that may have led to some confusion Arlo. :-)

this is the top 250 based upon AB's ..
All categories equal ...
top 100 from the list ....
    Last Name Team TOTAL/5
    Pierre Fla 221.31
    Beltran KC 210.12
    Soriano NYY 209.07
    Crawford TB 198.11
    Sheffield Atl 187.16
    Rodriguez Tex 187.11
    Podsednik Mil 182.80
    Renteria StL 177.89
    Sanchez Det 173.96
    Suzuki Sea 169.71
    Boone Sea 166.43
    GarciaparraBos 165.08
    Wilson Col 164.09
    Pujols StL 163.09
    Lee CWS 162.13
    Lee Fla 159.31
    Boone Cin 157.16
    Abreu Phi 155.87
    Damon Bos 155.22
    Furcal Atl 153.79
    Bagwell Hou 152.26
    Bonds SF 151.73
    Cabrera Mon 149.75
    Lofton ChC 149.05
    Baldelli TB 147.19
    Delgado Tor 146.16
    Mondesi Ari 145.25
    Thome Phi 143.62
    Rolen StL 142.93
    Winn Sea 140.96
    Sexson Mil 140.59
    Sanders Pit 139.49
    Berroa KC 138.85
    Wells Tor 138.56
    Roberts LA 138.05
    EncarnacionFla 137.85
    Ramirez Bos 137.30
    Helton Col 136.58
    Young SF 136.15
    Tejada Oak 134.47
    Ordonez CWS 134.30
    Jones Atl 134.09
    Lopez Atl 130.80
    Giles Atl 129.97
    Chavez Oak 129.65
    Giambi NYY 129.37
    Hidalgo Hou 128.22
    Anderson Ana 127.61
    Palmeiro Tex 126.64
    Finley Ari 126.41
    Everett CWS 125.93
    Sosa ChC 124.83
    Huff TB 123.91
    Cameron Sea 123.65
    Thomas CWS 123.50
    Kennedy Ana 122.38
    Payton Col 121.28
    Young Tex 120.92
    Gonzalez Ari 120.76
    Berkman Hou 120.29
    Castillo Fla 119.99
    Rollins Phi 118.99
    Edmonds StL 118.89
    Jones Atl 118.39
    Guerrero Mon 117.97
    Grissom SF 117.92
    Wilkerson Mon 117.60
    Lowell Fla 116.67
    Hunter Min 116.17
    Ibanez KC 114.74
    Rodriguez Fla 114.61
    Polanco Phi 114.15
    Jones Min 113.79
    Relaford KC 113.24
    Valentin CWS 113.12
    Posada NYY 113.06
    Nixon Bos 112.74
    Blalock Tex 111.74
    Roberts Bal 111.52
    Kent Hou 110.57
    Bradley Cle 109.71
    Bradley Cle 109.71
    Anderson TB 108.87
    Ortiz Bos 108.75
    Conine Fla 108.41
    Ramirez ChC 108.12
    Guillen Oak 107.89
    Millar Bos 107.83
    Batista Bal 107.38
    Young Det 106.97
    Giles SD 106.57
    Matos Bal 106.37
    Burnitz LA 105.85
    Koskie Min 105.73
    Green LA 105.48
    Patterson ChC 105.45
    Jenkins Mil 104.63
    Ensberg Hou 104.18
    Guzman Min 104.05
    DaVanon Ana 104.02

this is the same stats, divided by 4. excluding SB's ..
top 100 from the list ....
    Last Name Team Total -SB's
    Pujols StL 189
    Delgado Tor 183
    Rodriguez Tex 182
    Thome Phi 180
    Sheffield Atl 179
    Helton Col 171
    Sexson Mil 170
    Bonds SF 168
    Lopez Atl 164
    Wilson Col 163
    Ramirez Bos 163
    Wells Tor 161
    Boone Sea 159
    Bagwell Hou 157
    Sosa ChC 156
    Giambi NYY 156
    Jones Atl 155
    Soriano NYY 155
    Thomas CWS 154
    Palmeiro Tex 152
    Huff TB 149
    GarciaparraBos 149
    Lee CWS 148
    Edmonds StL 146
    Jones Atl 142
    Anderson Ana 141
    Ordonez CWS 141
    Rolen StL 139
    Beltran KC 138
    Chavez Oak 138
    Tejada Oak 138
    Lowell Fla 137
    Ortiz Bos 136
    Gonzalez Ari 136
    Lee Fla 135
    Posada NYY 135
    Berkman Hou 135
    Blalock Tex 134
    Payton Col 133
    Everett CWS 133
    Hidalgo Hou 133
    Guillen Oak 132
    Jenkins Mil 131
    Ramirez ChC 129
    Sanders Pit 129
    Nixon Bos 129
    Abreu Phi 128
    Young Det 128
    Hunter Min 127
    Boone Cin 127
    Millar Bos 126
    Gibbons Bal 123
    Martinez Sea 123
    Batista Bal 122
    Giles SD 121
    Conine Fla 120
    Guerrero Mon 120
    Kent Hou 120
    Giles Atl 120
    Alou ChC 120
    Ibanez KC 119
    Renteria StL 119
    Mueller Bos 118
    Burnitz LA 117
    Valentin CWS 117
    Matsui NYY 117
    Furcal Atl 116
    Teixeira Tex 115
    Mondesi Ari 115
    EncarnacionFla 115
    Durazo Oak 115
    Varitek Bos 114
    Cabrera Mon 114
    Grissom SF 114
    Green LA 114
    Rodriguez Fla 113
    Finley Ari 112
    White KC 112
    Young Tex 112
    HillenbrandAri 111
    Berroa KC 110
    Ensberg Hou 109
    Suzuki Sea 109
    Hernandez Oak 108
    Cruz SF 108
    Walker Col 108
    Walker Bos 108
    Gerut Cle 108
    Castilla Atl 108
    Wilkerson Mon 107
    Winn Sea 106
    Salmon Ana 106
    Stewart Min 105
    Lee TB 105
    Gonzalez Tex 104
    Dunn Cin 104
    Biggio Hou 104
    Randa KC 104
    Cameron Sea 103
    Damon Bos 103



Interesting ... Pierre score a 79 and come in ranked at 186 overall.

As far as numbers... I just did a cut and paste from rototimes. But I Need to find another source because I want Positions and Rototimes doesn't show that.. Be careful when copying from a site. Alot of thime they will list a player twice if he ahs been traded. IE Kenny Lofton might have PIT stats and CHC stats, on "some" web sites.
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