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by **wrveres** » Sun Oct 05, 2003 5:19 pm

Arlo wrote:
wrveres wrote:But basically I used this formula...

League Avg/Player Total*100 as was mentioned in here earlier. This actually skews SB's heavily. Or it put them into perspective, depending upon how you look at it ..

Ok first sample .. 200 Ab's or more Both Leagues...
League Average's
Hr's .. 14.7
RBI's .. 60
SB's .. 7.13
Runs .. 62.28
BA .. .274
(exp. HR's Soriano ... (14.7/38*100)

I'm confused... the more home runs a player has, the lower his score? Sorry if I'm missing something...

ooops... I wrote the formula backwords LOL
(exp. HR's Soriano ... (38/14.7*100) LOL..
sorry..

Highest points ...not lowest ..

by DK » Sun Oct 05, 2003 5:21 pm

oh, that makes sense... ;-D

by **Arlo** » Sun Oct 05, 2003 6:27 pm

Apologies, I'm still confused... If Soriano is better than the league average in every category, shouldn't his value be over 500?

by **wrveres** » Sun Oct 05, 2003 8:04 pm

Arlo wrote:Apologies, I'm still confused... If Soriano is better than the league average in every category, shouldn't his value be over 500?

I know it seems irrevelant, but I added all five categories then divided by 5 for 5 categories. Soriano's total score was 1456, while Pierre's was 1472 .... This is all a result of the huge differential in Sb's. The avg there was 7? Pierre scores 790 in that category alone.

So all categories evenly, Pierre is the number one pick? No. But he should be a first round pick. No one player can win you a category alone, but Pierre sure comes close.

by **Absolutely Adequate** » Sun Oct 05, 2003 8:26 pm

The guy over at baseballnotebook.com seems to think that Pierre was the most valuable this season too.

by **Madison** » Sun Oct 05, 2003 10:44 pm

I'm not sure what I would have done this year without Pierre. He was extremely valuable to me.

by DK » Mon Oct 06, 2003 9:16 am

hm...makes me rethink where to draft him..

by **ramble2** » Mon Oct 06, 2003 11:08 am

I have one idea for how to eliminate the bias towards steals: eliminate steals from the equation! Okay, okay, sounds crazy, I know, but I do remember that when I used to use a similar system that it was always difficult to eliminate the huge bonus the big stolen base guys got.

That's not to say that someone like Pierre is generally undervalued (though I wouldn't say he's the most valuable fantasy player in baseball). Given, Pierre alone can guarantee that you finish in the top 3 or 4 of stolen bases, and that's pretty valuable. But remember that these rankings are presumably going to be used in a real-life draft. Keep in mind that folks tend to undervalue stolen bases.

'Eliminate' is probably the wrong word to use. 'Isolate' might be better. Run the analysis without the stolen base category. Then also rank players based on stolen bases (I like using one of the metrics above, producing a ratio based either upon league average or, perhaps better here, based on the MLB leader).

Then, in a real life draft, you have to use some knowledge of when you think others in your league will start grabbing stolen base guys. It's like saves. Most leagues I'm in have 'closer runs' somewhere between the 6th - 8th rounds. Top closers tend to be more valuable than a 6th to 8th round pick, but we wait to pick them anyways, based upon what we know about when closers tend to get picked. Admittedly, closers are fragile critters, but how many stolen base guys see a huge drop in production from one year to the next? (I'm looking at you, Castillo.)

So maybe we should start treating steals like saves. It might be good enough for draft purposes to have a good idea of where you can get stolen bases, and to not be afraid to take a Pierre in say, round 4 or 5.

wrveres, any chance you could run the analysis minus the stolen bases? That might be interesting. Also, where are you downloading your data from? I'd like to be able to download the season stats into an excel friendly file. Thanks.

by DK » Mon Oct 06, 2003 11:54 am

i wouldn't eliminate them completely, but like i said grade SB's on a curve. i think it might even it out a bit.

by **wrveres** » Mon Oct 06, 2003 1:08 pm

LOL
stupid Autosum.. I had some final totals wring. I fixed them now. I think that may have led to some confusion Arlo. :-)

this is the top 250 based upon AB's ..
All categories equal ...
top 100 from the list ....

this is the same stats, divided by 4. excluding SB's ..
top 100 from the list ....

Interesting ... Pierre score a 79 and come in ranked at 186 overall.

As far as numbers... I just did a cut and paste from rototimes. But I Need to find another source because I want Positions and Rototimes doesn't show that.. Be careful when copying from a site. Alot of thime they will list a player twice if he ahs been traded. IE Kenny Lofton might have PIT stats and CHC stats, on "some" web sites.

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