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Postby LukeW9027 » Tue Jan 16, 2007 7:05 pm

AcidRock23 wrote:
LukeW9027 wrote:Has anyone else noticed that the PECOTA Projections seem very pessimistic? or is it just me... :-? :-[


I kind of noticed that last year which led me to think 'if all the hitters are going to do this poorly, then the pitchers should come out better or if the pitchers do poorly it would make sense that the hitters would benefit'.

I think that a real acid test of a projection system might be to add up the projections for both hitters and pitchers and see how close they come out... :-?


Not a bad idea. But to me, it just seems like they arent going out on a limb and predicting breakout players and/or busts. Another thing that I noticed is some weird AB projections. Some players that had fluke injuries with good durability in the past are getting AB #'s around 400 ( D Lee, Hawpe, etc...) Also the SB #'s are way off for some of the younger speed guys ( Dexter Fowler COL 40 Sbs... :-[ )
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Postby thedude » Tue Jan 16, 2007 7:15 pm

LukeW9027 wrote:
AcidRock23 wrote:
LukeW9027 wrote:Has anyone else noticed that the PECOTA Projections seem very pessimistic? or is it just me... :-? :-[


I kind of noticed that last year which led me to think 'if all the hitters are going to do this poorly, then the pitchers should come out better or if the pitchers do poorly it would make sense that the hitters would benefit'.

I think that a real acid test of a projection system might be to add up the projections for both hitters and pitchers and see how close they come out... :-?


Not a bad idea. But to me, it just seems like they arent going out on a limb and predicting breakout players and/or busts. Another thing that I noticed is some weird AB projections. Some players that had fluke injuries with good durability in the past are getting AB #'s around 400 ( D Lee, Hawpe, etc...) Also the SB #'s are way off for some of the younger speed guys ( Dexter Fowler COL 40 Sbs... :-[ )


The thing you have to understand about PECOTA is that it is based upon that player's past performance. It then takes that performance and compares it to thousands of past seasons and uses the player's that match most closely to predict what the player will do in the future (combined with other variables including Park, league, ect). The average player will usaully regress after having a good season which means most projections will seem optomistic. but if you really look at the numbers you will find that statiscally PECOTA is overall more accurate than the systems that predict 35 homerun seasons from guys Delmon Young.
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Postby LukeW9027 » Tue Jan 16, 2007 7:53 pm

thedude wrote:
LukeW9027 wrote:
AcidRock23 wrote:
LukeW9027 wrote:Has anyone else noticed that the PECOTA Projections seem very pessimistic? or is it just me... :-? :-[


I kind of noticed that last year which led me to think 'if all the hitters are going to do this poorly, then the pitchers should come out better or if the pitchers do poorly it would make sense that the hitters would benefit'.

I think that a real acid test of a projection system might be to add up the projections for both hitters and pitchers and see how close they come out... :-?


Not a bad idea. But to me, it just seems like they arent going out on a limb and predicting breakout players and/or busts. Another thing that I noticed is some weird AB projections. Some players that had fluke injuries with good durability in the past are getting AB #'s around 400 ( D Lee, Hawpe, etc...) Also the SB #'s are way off for some of the younger speed guys ( Dexter Fowler COL 40 Sbs... :-[ )


The thing you have to understand about PECOTA is that it is based upon that player's past performance. It then takes that performance and compares it to thousands of past seasons and uses the player's that match most closely to predict what the player will do in the future (combined with other variables including Park, league, ect). The average player will usaully regress after having a good season which means most projections will seem optomistic. but if you really look at the numbers you will find that statiscally PECOTA is overall more accurate than the systems that predict 35 homerun seasons from guys Delmon Young.


Yeah, I am aware of their criteria for the rankings, but predicting Pujols under 40 HR's when his last 4 seasons he's hit 49,41,46, and 43?

Just seems a bit too pessimistic for my blood.
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Postby Steve-o » Wed Jan 17, 2007 12:23 am

LukeW9027 wrote:Yeah, I am aware of their criteria for the rankings, but predicting Pujols under 40 HR's when his last 4 seasons he's hit 49,41,46, and 43?

Just seems a bit too pessimistic for my blood.


I think this has been discussed before, but you are better off converting their projections to per AB (say hr/ab) and then converting that based on what you foresee each player getting as far as AB. However, their rate stats are usually quite good.
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Draft software....looking 4 baseball version of footballguys

Postby stealthrunner » Fri Jan 26, 2007 3:26 pm

I am in a NL Only Auction league, I have used an excel spreadsheet for a few years that has links everywhere. I put in a player to the winning manager and the $ amount and it updates his money and his positions, etc.

I basically made an Excel version of Football Guys Draft Dominator. (Which I have used for a few years in Fantasy football drafts and it helped alot.)

Anyone point me in the direction of a fantasy baseball software that tracks value, money left, positions each team has and needs and all of the rest of the good stuff we love to analyze up until draft time.
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Postby stealthrunner » Fri Jan 26, 2007 3:53 pm

Thanks for the bump. I will start to read through it. Anyone recommend anything similar to Draft Dominator by Footballguys.com for fantasy football?

Assuming someone here uses it for fantasy football.

Time to start reading 9 pages. ;-)
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Postby Diamond Miners » Fri Jan 26, 2007 4:33 pm

stealthrunner wrote:Thanks for the bump. I will start to read through it. Anyone recommend anything similar to Draft Dominator by Footballguys.com for fantasy football?

Assuming someone here uses it for fantasy football.

Time to start reading 9 pages. ;-)

I know there use to be one, I downloaded it once, but found doing my own thing worked best as I could put it together for my own league's specifications and after a while my leaguemates draft tendacies (sp?)
Good luck, feel free to PM me
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Postby stealthrunner » Fri Jan 26, 2007 5:00 pm

Well I just read through all 9 pages and here is what I found from the postings about software.

Not going to list the blogs, magazines or books, too many to mention.

Software:
Diamond Draft. The are $12.95 and provide updates up until opening day.

Rotolabs. They are quite a bit more at $69.00 for a new user.

Fantistics

FanStar.com

I know another guy in my league uses fantistics. There software seems highly regarded in this. I may demo a couple of them and figure out which will work best with my spreadsheet. I am a master of ALT + TAB to swtich between EXCEL and whatever program I do get.
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Any (free) Points league Calculators?

Postby unclepaulie » Sun Jan 28, 2007 10:17 am

I know that Rototimes use to have one and USA today's fantasy section did as well but they both looked as if they dropped it this year.

Does anybody know where I can find one still?
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Baseball Forecaster book?

Postby Kingctb27 » Mon Jan 29, 2007 8:32 pm

I've heard good things about the book for fantasy purposes.

Anyone pick up the copy?
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