Albert Belle projection

[Callahan]

Just wondering if anyone knew if there have ever been any statistical projections for Albert Belle, had he not developed his hip condition? I'm just curious to see what kind of numbers he might have put up given a normal decline curve. I don't know how to project these myself.

[Tavish]

Brock2 projections through age 38 (5 years after his actual retirement)

<pre>
Belle Projected
Games 1539 2160
Hits 1726 2420
Homers 381 519
Runs 974 1359
RBI 1239 1670
On-Base .369 .368
Slugging .564 .552</pre>

[Callahan]

Neat, thanks.

[MarisFan61]

Just wondering if anyone knew if there have ever been any statistical projections for Albert Belle, had he not developed his hip condition.....

You're ASSUMING something.

Or, I think, FAILING to assume something.

I know it's unfair to raise the steroid issue without evidence, but.......I pretty much ASSUME he was a user.
It would help explain his unreal hitting stats AS WELL AS his unusual sudden physical disability.
As soon as McGWIRE had it happen (and once we found out what he probably had been doing), Belle was one of the first other guys I thought of.

So.......what I'm really saying is, I doubt that the hip condition was just incidental.
I think it was a result of exactly the same thing that had enabled him to hit like he did.
I think that without the stuff, he would have had a longer but less spectacular career.

[TheGhost76777]

Well at the All-Star Break in 2000, before he was injured, he was hitting .311 with 18 home runs, 72 RBI. If he never got injured, he probably would of continued with the .290-.300, 35-40 home run, 120-130 RBI seasons for another 4-5 years. He averaged 40 home runs, 130 RBI per 162 games during his career. I'm thinking he would of ended up with a .285-.290 career AVG, 550-600 home runs, 1,500-2,000 RBI.

I personally believe he is a hall of famer. Who was better in the 90s? Griffey and Thomas maybe....you could throw Bonds name in as well....but Belle dominated the 90s, lead that decade in RBI & Extra Base Hits. When you think of all the players that played in the 90s that will be in the Hall one day...darn shame Belle isn't in there now.

Also, Belle was not a juicer. He corked his bat...but never a steroid user. Read Canseco's book.

[MarisFan61]

Canseco's book????

I'm shocked you think that means Belle DIDN'T use stuff, or that anything in there means anybody didn't use.
I didn't read the book, but from anything I can imagine, stuff in the book can suggest that some specific guys DID use, but not that any specific guy didn't.

[BronXBombers51]

Steroids shouldn't make a difference in whether he's in the HOF or not.

Baseball-Reference.com:

Black Ink: Batting - 28 (62) (Average HOFer ≈ 27)
Gray Ink: Batting - 137 (119) (Average HOFer ≈ 144)
HOF Standards: Batting - 36.1 (178) (Average HOFer ≈ 50)
HOF Monitor: Batting - 134.5 (98) (Likely HOFer > 100)


It's an interesting debate. If I were to vote, I would say no. Had he continued playing a few more years, I'd say he'd definitely be in.

[MarisFan61]

Steroids shouldn't make a difference in whether he's in the HOF or not......

WHAT????????

You puttin' me on?

[BronXBombers51]

Steroids shouldn't make a difference in whether he's in the HOF or not......

WHAT????????

You puttin' me on?

Not at all. Numbers are numbers. Bonds, Clemens, McGwire, Sosa, Palmeiro, etc. They should all be in the HOF. Their numbers certainly warrant it. If Belle had the numbers of a HOFer, he should have been in too. In my opinion, his numbers don't quite stack up, though.

[MarisFan61]

Not at all. Numbers are numbers. Bonds, Clemens, McGwire, Sosa, Palmeiro, etc. They should all be in the HOF. Their numbers certainly warrant it. If Belle had the numbers of a HOFer, he should have been in too. In my opinion, his numbers don't quite stack up, though.

OK, you really are serious.

Fortunately that's an EXTREME minority opinion.

I don't mean that it should be IMPOSSIBLE for someone to get in despite "substances."
But fortunately not too many VOTERS feel it's not a factor.