Now tell me why Ellsbury gets all the pub while we never hear from Gardner? Ellsbury is got at least some pop, but that's about it. Gardner looks like a better basestealer.
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Brett Gardner's value lies almost exclusively in his feet. His speed allows him to hit triples and doubles, not his bat. He obviously has tremendous plate discipline as evident by his OBP and K/9 or BB/9 rates. He is fairly consistent throughout the season and more importantly, does not have major struggles with RH or LH pitching. He has no power and no power potential, just blazing speed and good on base skills. Oddly enough his OBP>SLUG. That doesn't happen often and whlie OBP is more significant to run production, it isn't as significant without some power potential.
All this contributes to one central idea about his prospect ranking: He has two skills. When his speed goes, and it will, his career will go in the tank. Especially fantasy-wise. As his speed begins to decline he will no longer be able to beat out ground balls, stretch singles into doubles and doubles into triples. As his BA goes down, so will his SLUG and OBP.
For more on this see the career stats of Vince Coleman, Omar Moreno and Delino DeShields.
In no way am I saying Gardner is as good a player or a prospect. I'm just saying Ellsbury is getting all the pub as the next Johnny Damon and Gardner is ranked I think 10th in the BA's list in a weak Yankees' system. I just think as a fantasy player(if he develop as planned, his leg probably won't give up until his 30s right?) he's very much under the radar. Agreed?
Welcome to the cafe Koby, I've been really enjoying your posts
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I agree with you that he would be a good fantasy player. The issue is whether or not he'll make it to the big leagues. A lot of that will depend on his ability to get hits that other people wouldn't. Or, a high BABIP. As he moves up the quality of defense improves and his BABIP should drop. Although he doesn't strikeout much and walks plenty, he is going to require those extra cheap hits in order to maintain his average and SB attempts.
But, if he does make it, he'll have a fairly (fantasy-wise) productive couple years. Decent average (.280) very good SB (50-60) high run total (110) but a low HR (0) and few RBI (dependant on who he makes it with) which makes for a fairly productive for your fantasy team.
But the chances of him making the big show are much worse than Ellsbury or other prospects because Gardner possesses two, dependant, skills: Speed and discipline. As one goes, so goes the other.
i dont know much about gardner, but another thing you really gotta consider is that ellsbury plays a gold glove calibur center field. Also, unlike johnny damon, ellsbury's arm isnt that of a little leaguer. So part of ellsbury's hype is the fact that he plays such great defense as well
Ellsbury is a nice talent but largely overrated, hes juan pierre with better defense and significantly less speed. He could be a decent third outfielder at the next level.
Gardner has great speed and is excellent at working counts and getting on base. His lack of power will keep him from becoming more then a fourth outfielder at best at the next level.
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by PlayingWithFire » Thu Nov 09, 2006 8:19 pm 
