Morneau in 2007 - Yay or Nay?

[Absolutely Adequate]

I expect a slight raise in power, a lower average, and fewer RBIs.

He was the beneficiary this year of an abnormally good Mauer year. Mauer was often on base, pitchers were throwing from the stretch, and Morneau capitalized.

I have no figures to back this up. The World Series isn't over! I'm still working on the sitting back/drinking beer portion of my baseball year.

[Secret Avatar]

I expect some regression across the board to something like 300-32-115.

If you look at his splits, he had two torrid months in June and July during which he hit 18 HR and his OPS was 1.137 and 1.130 respectively. The other four months his OPS was never over 889 and he had 698 in April. If you look at pre- and post-ASB, his power dropped off the map in the second half but his BA rose. He hit only 11 HR in 292 at-bats in the second half (only 4 in August and 2 in September in 217 at-bats).

What does all this mean? I have no clue. He's too young to know whether he's just a very streaky hitter or whether his June and July were just above his head. Did pitchers learn to pitch better to him in the second half? Did they pitch around him?

I do have a feeling that June and July were above his head. If you take out just one of those months, you're looking at 28 to 30 HR and not 34. On the other hand, he's young and likely not reached his peak.

Also, he had 592 at-bats last year, which is quite a bit for a slugger who hits in the middle of the lineup. Twinkies will have to continue hitting well across the lineup next season to give him as many at-bats. I'm not saying they won't, but if the lineup loses any of its firepower next year (will Mauer hit 350 again?) then his at-bats and counting stats could decline.

[raiders_umpire]

I expect numbers pretty close to what he put up this year. His average may dip a bit, but not a whole lot. And some natural progression could raise his power a bit as well. Overall I think he will be as good as he was this year. I would love to see the Twins get a nice batter to cover him in the 6th hole, but we will just have to see what happens this offseason.

[jjredick]

I agree. I think he can put up similar numbers he did last year in the upcoming season. More run support the better.

[Old_Style]

just like the others, i've got morneau droping off a little bit but will put up solid numbers.

i have him going .295/32/110

[kimchi_chigae]

As some of the others have said, he was over hyped for the 2005 season. He killed the ball after being called up in 04, but he disappointed last season due to injury. I'm sure some people still drafted him for this year, but eventually dropped him after he hit .208 in April and figured we would get Morneau 05 again. He could be found in the FA on a lot of league probably because he was dropped and not because he went undrafted.

I think Yoda hit the nail on the head. His success will depend on how he does against left handed pitchers. I think the AVG will come down a bit, but the powe won't go anywhere.

[eftda]

Worse. Overvalued, but still good.