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Can Ervin Santana become a SO pitcher like his brother Johan

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Can Ervin Santana become a SO pitcher like his brother Johan

Postby Music2004Man » Fri Oct 27, 2006 6:51 am

I know that they aren't brothers but I'm curious what you guys think of Ervin Santana? Has anyone seen him pitch? At 6'2 160 (taken from thebaseball cube) he doesn't seem to be very big but is obviously lanky and could fill out. He averaged 9.13 K/9 in the minors but only 6.4/9 in the majors. I know that he hasn't been up very long and there's a development process that needs to take place but does he have a dynamic fastball, solid breaking pitches, the ability to K more?

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Postby willy-t » Fri Oct 27, 2006 7:53 am

Good mid 90s fastball and decent hard slider. Doesn't change speeds very much according to a scouting report I read.

Jorge Sosa has an upper 90s fastball and cant K 5/9, whereas Ervins brother ;-) cant get it much higher that 92-93 and Ks 10+/9. So velocity can be misleading.

I think Ervin might have a 200K season within him once he learns his sequences and gains some experience art a bit better.
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Postby Yoda » Fri Oct 27, 2006 10:32 am

Ervin has excellent offerings and should be a nice K pitcher in due time. He was always very young for the league he was in and the Halos didn't hesitate to promote him.

06 was his first full season and pitched very well until he was injured. I think he is an excellent sleeper for 07 and his peripherals are solid. As someone mentioned, with more experience, he should start K'ing a lot more.
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Postby TB13 » Fri Oct 27, 2006 4:32 pm

He is a very, very good quality pick in '07. Like Yoda, I expect his K's to rise.
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Postby Dawgpound 1613 » Fri Oct 27, 2006 4:41 pm

Don't think he'll end up like Johan, but his K rate should improve as he ages making him a better overall pitcher.
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Postby Philliebuster » Sat Oct 28, 2006 9:45 am

You may already know this, but Ervin's name was indeed "Johan." He changed it because there was already a Johan.

From the age of 18 to 23, he's had about the most consistent drop in K/9 rate, from around 10.5 to the current 6.22.

See:
http://www.thebaseballcube.com/players/ ... tana.shtml

I think he has the potential to K more, maybe around 170-180 but I wouldn't expect to see 200+.
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Postby Trot Nixon » Sat Oct 28, 2006 12:16 pm

Like hitters with the magical age of 27, pitchers tend to have that 3rd year breakout...I think Santana will be it ;-D
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Thanks chipper!!!!

There is such a thing called clutch and David Ortiz is the modern day definition of it
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Postby Yoda » Sat Oct 28, 2006 1:33 pm

Philliebuster wrote:You may already know this, but Ervin's name was indeed "Johan." He changed it because there was already a Johan.

From the age of 18 to 23, he's had about the most consistent drop in K/9 rate, from around 10.5 to the current 6.22.

See:
http://www.thebaseballcube.com/players/ ... tana.shtml

I think he has the potential to K more, maybe around 170-180 but I wouldn't expect to see 200+.


Drop in the K rate is due to the fact that he was rapidly promoted. Ervin's best comp is Ben Sheets... I'm not saying he will become as good as Sheets but their perpherals very similar at age 23.

I believe Ervin's K rate will start going up if he continues to develop.
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Postby Philliebuster » Sat Oct 28, 2006 5:04 pm

Yoda wrote:
Philliebuster wrote:You may already know this, but Ervin's name was indeed "Johan." He changed it because there was already a Johan.

From the age of 18 to 23, he's had about the most consistent drop in K/9 rate, from around 10.5 to the current 6.22.

See:
http://www.thebaseballcube.com/players/ ... tana.shtml

I think he has the potential to K more, maybe around 170-180 but I wouldn't expect to see 200+.


Drop in the K rate is due to the fact that he was rapidly promoted. Ervin's best comp is Ben Sheets... I'm not saying he will become as good as Sheets but their perpherals very similar at age 23.

I believe Ervin's K rate will start going up if he continues to develop.


I don't see the same steady decline in players like Kazmir, Prior, Olsen, King Felix. I don't think ES has the strikeout potential as these K machines do, but as I said he could reach 180.
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Postby Yoda » Sat Oct 28, 2006 6:22 pm

Philliebuster wrote:
Yoda wrote:
Philliebuster wrote:You may already know this, but Ervin's name was indeed "Johan." He changed it because there was already a Johan.

From the age of 18 to 23, he's had about the most consistent drop in K/9 rate, from around 10.5 to the current 6.22.

See:
http://www.thebaseballcube.com/players/ ... tana.shtml

I think he has the potential to K more, maybe around 170-180 but I wouldn't expect to see 200+.


Drop in the K rate is due to the fact that he was rapidly promoted. Ervin's best comp is Ben Sheets... I'm not saying he will become as good as Sheets but their perpherals very similar at age 23.

I believe Ervin's K rate will start going up if he continues to develop.


I don't see the same steady decline in players like Kazmir, Prior, Olsen, King Felix. I don't think ES has the strikeout potential as these K machines do, but as I said he could reach 180.


I don't think he will be elite like Johan but he certainly has the tolls to be elite.

I think his K rate will only go up. He was promoted too quickly to judge his K ability and he is more than holding his own so far.
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