Yoda wrote:Wow that is a very optimistic projection for James... Not saying he won't do it but I would think that is the higher end of what he will achieve.
Its a decent regression from last year......... and he is pitching in the NL... He should also improve his BB/9 so I think he can keep his ERA at a decent level, he tends to keep hitters off balance with that good change. Oh yeah, he pitches in the NL also!
Jason
I appreciate your projections believe me. I am not bold enough to come up with tough projections.
I seem to recall that James is a flyball pitcher but I could be wrong. I think he will have some ups and downs next season especially if he can't get his BBs down.
Seems ok, but I think it's definitely generous. His command is pretty bad. If his k/bb stays atays around 1.76 he'll have to continue to being stingy with the hits and maybe give up fewer hr/9. He's was H/9 was great last season and he would have be really really good to keep it that way next season. I think he'll regress here and his number could suffer.
I would think that a 4.2-4.5 ERA, 1.35 +/- WHIP, and 10-12 wins are more likely. Lets say that the chances (in my opinion) are about 70% that he gets these type numbers and only 5-10% that he gets your numbers. However, if he pitches less than 200 innings (in the 150-175 range) I could see your numbers as more likely. I think like most pitchers in their first full year, he'll hit a wall come August.
ukrneal wrote:I would think that a 4.2-4.5 ERA, 1.35 +/- WHIP, and 10-12 wins are more likely. Lets say that the chances (in my opinion) are about 70% that he gets these type numbers and only 5-10% that he gets your numbers. However, if he pitches less than 200 innings (in the 150-175 range) I could see your numbers as more likely. I think like most pitchers in their first full year, he'll hit a wall come August.
I agree with most everyone in this thread. I just tend to favor pitchers who have and utilize a good changeup and he has that! I can see my projection of 3.90 and I can see it up to 4.20 but he would have to be pretty bad to be worse than that I suspect. His BB/9 was high this year and that should be comming down next year as well, IMHO. Like others have said, its hard to project rookies or even 2nd year players so I would think any projections for these type of guys should be taken with a grain of salt for the most part. We'll just have to revisit this thread this time next year...... I will have no problem eating crow if thats what ends up happening!
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by Yoda » Mon Oct 23, 2006 6:21 pm He should also improve his BB/9 so I think he can keep his ERA at a decent level, he tends to keep hitters off balance with that good change. Oh yeah, he pitches in the NL also!
I will have no problem eating crow if thats what ends up happening!
