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making projections

Postby JohnnyBenchBest Ever » Mon Oct 23, 2006 3:29 pm

I just completed my second year of fantasy baseball and would like to learn how to make good projections for up comming seasons. I'm not really sure how to do this. I'm not asking for anyone's work I'd like to know how to project 07 based off minor league or major league stats. Any help would be greatly appreciated.
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Re: making projections

Postby J35J » Mon Oct 23, 2006 3:53 pm

JohnnyBenchBest Ever wrote:I just completed my second year of fantasy baseball and would like to learn how to make good projections for up comming seasons. I'm not really sure how to do this. I'm not asking for anyone's work I'd like to know how to project 07 based off minor league or major league stats. Any help would be greatly appreciated.



To be honest, you just hafta know the game and the players to project what they will do the following year. Of course even all that is a crap shoot for the most part but there really isn't any good formula to project guys out for the future. Just follow the trends, age of the player, home ballpark, surrounding lineup, etc, etc, etc. Its really just guess work that you can make based on your level of knowledge of the game, how trends work and your knowledge of each individual player....... at least thats how I see it.


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Re: making projections

Postby Steve-o » Mon Oct 23, 2006 9:21 pm

JohnnyBenchBest Ever wrote:I just completed my second year of fantasy baseball and would like to learn how to make good projections for up comming seasons. I'm not really sure how to do this. I'm not asking for anyone's work I'd like to know how to project 07 based off minor league or major league stats. Any help would be greatly appreciated.


I have been playing for a while and last year was my first doing projections. Do a search here, there area couple of good threads on it. I think there might even be something in Madison's faq.

One way to make projections is base it on the last three years of stats with a regression to the mean. 50/33/17, then regress it to the league mean. It's my understanding that this is is called the Marcel system (so easy a monkey could do it). I think tangotiger publishes this later on in the offseason as well. You can find stats here.

How I did it this year was the standard 50/33/17, with somewhat of a regression to mean. I thought the full regression was too much of a dip and undervalued the numbers too much. I then adjusted the numbers based on my own standard for age, park factors, change of leagues, and lineups. For example, an decrease of 2% for changing leagues, etc.

I have no idea how to correlate minor league stats into the projections though. I also was not very accurate with pitchers, so would love to hear some more advice on those subjects.

Another word of advice is to focus on playing time. I think this year I am going make prokections based on occurance per AB. This way I can re-project as situations change throughout the year. Anyone else do this?



Ohh. Here are some of my links on the subject. Most of these are from GotoWarMissAgnes (thanks GTWMA!). PM me if you want some more info, or other people could post it here.

http://www.stathead.com/articles/woolner/peakage.htm

http://www.stathead.com/articles/woolner/kratep.htm

http://ideas.repec.org/p/cwl/cwldpp/1536.html

http://bradbury.sewanee.edu/wordpress/i ... erformance

http://www.baseballthinkfactory.org/btf ... ngMLEs.htm
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