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What do you think of Soriano next season?

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Postby BritSox » Sat Oct 14, 2006 9:32 am

buffalobillsrul2002 wrote:I don't know. I think Soriano being in a contract year might have a big dropoff in his HR and SB. Soriano said late in the year that he was going for 40/40, and in September, he ran pretty much every time he was on base, regardless of whether everybody in the ballpark knew he was going. Also, he ran whether or not it was good for the team if he ran. This may have had something to do with him wanting a bigger contract..... Sorinao is pretty much impossible to predict. Where he goes and what position (batting order AND team AND fielding position) will have a big impact on where he goes.


I think it was more to do with Soriano being on a last placed team, with nothing to play for, so him going for 40-40 was the only exciting thing happening to the team, to draw fans to the ballpark. I certainly wouldn't expect him to be allowed to do that on a contender.

Also, recall (and this is important, and I don't think anyone's touched on it) that he had 130 games hitting leadoff, if he goes anywhere else I doubt that happens, so he'll get fewer AB (he doubled his 2005 walk total this year and still got more AB), so less chance to get on base. (46 HR and <100 RBI? Major misuse imho).

I'd feel certain his SB, HR and R will be down this coming season, though his RBI will likely be up if he's hitting mid order. You can probably take at least 30 HR and 20SB to the bank, which in my eyes still makes him a first rounder, but I don't think he'll be worth a top 3-4 pick.
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Postby Geek » Sat Oct 14, 2006 11:42 am

Anywhere from #2 to #7 overall, depending on gut instinct.

He's actually been pretty darn consistent.
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Postby Secret Avatar » Tue Oct 17, 2006 2:28 am

Who knows with Soriano? He posted the worst home/road splits in baseball in 2005 with Texas and then goes to a much worse home park for hitters and has an utterly magical season. Nearly everything points to a substantial drop off in HR and SB, but he has the skills to repeat or come close.

You're probably better off checking the astrological charts on draft day rather than any fantasy projections.
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Postby 1337_Dude » Tue Oct 17, 2006 2:46 am

I'd draft him in the 5-8 range.
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Postby J35J » Tue Oct 17, 2006 9:40 am

0.275 AVG
37 HR
95 RBI
112 RUNS
32 SB



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Postby raiders_umpire » Tue Oct 17, 2006 9:56 am

Lofunzo wrote:
raiders_umpire wrote:No more predicting Soriano numbers for me. :-X It is definitely too early though to even try with his impending free agency this winter. What lineup and what home ballpark he is in will determine alot of his value imo.


Will it?? With that logic, he must have been in for a tough 2006. ;-7




Yea I think it will. If he is signed by the Dodgers to be the cleanup hitter, his value could take a hit as he seems to like to be the leadoff man. He seems his happiest as a leadoff man for some reason, and his value could fall if he hits elsewhere and is not "happy". If you think different please give us your opinion there Mr. Lo. B-)
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Postby Lofunzo » Tue Oct 17, 2006 10:34 am

raiders_umpire wrote:
Lofunzo wrote:
raiders_umpire wrote:No more predicting Soriano numbers for me. :-X It is definitely too early though to even try with his impending free agency this winter. What lineup and what home ballpark he is in will determine alot of his value imo.


Will it?? With that logic, he must have been in for a tough 2006. ;-7




Yea I think it will. If he is signed by the Dodgers to be the cleanup hitter, his value could take a hit as he seems to like to be the leadoff man. He seems his happiest as a leadoff man for some reason, and his value could fall if he hits elsewhere and is not "happy". If you think different please give us your opinion there Mr. Lo. B-)


I will reserve my opinion until I see where he goes and what his situation is. I was merely commenting on the lineup and ballpark part. Before last season, I would assume that there was no worse lineup and ballpark for him to go to and he flourished.
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Postby The Jury » Tue Oct 17, 2006 11:37 am

davidmarver wrote:The contract year theory doesn't work; don't correlate his 2006 success with that.

It's far too early to tell anything with Soriano. Until we see where he is, projecting numbers for him is far too trivial.


The contract theory doesn't for the general population, but I think there is something to it for some players, and Soriano may be one of them.
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Postby BravesGuy » Tue Oct 17, 2006 12:53 pm

It's far too early to tell anything with Soriano. Until we see where he is, projecting numbers for him is far too trivial.


He put up some monster numbers in that washington ballpark with that awful lineup, surely almost anywhere he goes now would be an upgrade. So if he goes to a better ballpark/lineup he should do better?
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Postby Simulacrum » Tue Oct 17, 2006 1:55 pm

I don't think I'll be getting Soriano in any leagues next season.. he'll go top 4 easily.

It sure was nice getting him with the last pick in the second round this season..

On the other hand, maybe once again all the nay-saying about Soriano will cause people to under-rate him on draft day.

Soriano has peaked! Expect a sharp decline in his numbers next season! Draft at your own peril! :-D
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