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How accurate are your projections?

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Postby RAmst23 » Fri Oct 13, 2006 2:40 am

Projections go all over. Many people think someone will have a break out year or bust, and then just miss completely. I though King Felix would be a bust, so good job me. I also thought Ryan Howard would be a bust. I might have missed the train on that one. Thought Jim Thome would be a really good player. Home run there. Course also though Aubrey Huff would have a breakthrough year. Awesome.

No one gets them all correct. You just draft the people you think have the odds in their favor to have a breakthrough year. Like Chris Young's example (the guy everyone picked to do well), who was a flyball pitcher going to the NL in a big park. Not a tough choice. Guessing that Frank Thomas would stay healthy and hit all year... well, that was a tougher guess.
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Postby mak1277 » Fri Oct 13, 2006 10:49 am

TheYanks04 wrote:Seriously though, projections are pure nonsense in the end and the only thing they are useful for is in anticipating the relative worth of one player vs another. Show me 1 person who had projected Kenny Rogers' numbers for this season. Or Dan Uggla. I generally will pick a set of projections from a major provider (like Rototimes) and use that as a starting point and tweak players I like more up some, players I dislike down some. It is as good a method as any without going nuts.


See this is my exact opinion on the whole process (and the reason I started this thread). To me, spending hours churning through numbers is an exercise in futility when I can just use a variety of different sites to rank players.
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Postby TheYanks04 » Fri Oct 13, 2006 10:53 am

mak1277 wrote:
TheYanks04 wrote:Seriously though, projections are pure nonsense in the end and the only thing they are useful for is in anticipating the relative worth of one player vs another. Show me 1 person who had projected Kenny Rogers' numbers for this season. Or Dan Uggla. I generally will pick a set of projections from a major provider (like Rototimes) and use that as a starting point and tweak players I like more up some, players I dislike down some. It is as good a method as any without going nuts.


See this is my exact opinion on the whole process (and the reason I started this thread). To me, spending hours churning through numbers is an exercise in futility when I can just use a variety of different sites to rank players.



I completely agree.
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Postby J35J » Fri Oct 13, 2006 11:13 am

TheYanks04 wrote:
mak1277 wrote:
TheYanks04 wrote:Seriously though, projections are pure nonsense in the end and the only thing they are useful for is in anticipating the relative worth of one player vs another. Show me 1 person who had projected Kenny Rogers' numbers for this season. Or Dan Uggla. I generally will pick a set of projections from a major provider (like Rototimes) and use that as a starting point and tweak players I like more up some, players I dislike down some. It is as good a method as any without going nuts.


See this is my exact opinion on the whole process (and the reason I started this thread). To me, spending hours churning through numbers is an exercise in futility when I can just use a variety of different sites to rank players.



I completely agree.



....... to me its the best part of fantasy baseball. If I couldn't sort through all these stats and make my own projections and rankings purely based on my opinion I don't think I could play fantasy baseball, at least not get into it as much as I do.

The preseason of projections/rankings is definately my favorite part of the whole season! I guess I'm just a different kind of animal. :-D


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Postby mak1277 » Fri Oct 13, 2006 11:22 am

J35J wrote:....... to me its the best part of fantasy baseball. If I couldn't sort through all these stats and make my own projections and rankings purely based on my opinion I don't think I could play fantasy baseball, at least not get into it as much as I do.

The preseason of projections/rankings is definately my favorite part of the whole season! I guess I'm just a different kind of animal. :-D


I certainly do my own informal rankings to prep for drafts. I just think that trying to predict what any players actual stat line will be is just an unnecessary use of time.
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Postby TheYanks04 » Fri Oct 13, 2006 11:34 am

mak1277 wrote:
J35J wrote:....... to me its the best part of fantasy baseball. If I couldn't sort through all these stats and make my own projections and rankings purely based on my opinion I don't think I could play fantasy baseball, at least not get into it as much as I do.

The preseason of projections/rankings is definately my favorite part of the whole season! I guess I'm just a different kind of animal. :-D


I certainly do my own informal rankings to prep for drafts. I just think that trying to predict what any players actual stat line will be is just an unnecessary use of time.


And realistically, if you need those type of numbers, the guys at Rototimes, TQStats or whover are supposedly experts and are likely to do a job at least no worse than you do anyway. I mean is their Magic-8 ball and worse than yours? Take theirs, tweak the few dozen players you think they are wrong on to your tastes and go from that. A lot easier to deal with than trying to project 300 or so MLB players.

Unless you feel you are so great at such prognostication that you have to do them yousrself? I know I am guessing. I may think I am guessing based on some knowledge fo the game, but in the end I am smart enough to know that predicting whether Arod gets 100 RBIS or 115 rbis is as about as accurate as predicting the weather next week.
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Postby J35J » Fri Oct 13, 2006 11:37 am

....like I said, I guess I'm just a different kind of animal when it comes to this.


Also I would feel like I didn't "do my job" or had someone else draft for me if I didn't do it the way I do it. If all I did was bring a magazine to the draft or print off "Rototimes" rankings with a few scratch marks on them and bring them to the draft then you might as well be a noob or do an auto draft or something. My wife could go grab a mag or some "experts" rankings/projections and draft a good team and thats annoying to me. I like to feel like I did it on my own without the help of the so called "experts". I like to feel like I'M the expert and to rely on myself. I win because of MY decisions and lose because of MY decisions. The more I think about it the more I'm suprised more people aren't like me...... :-?

But hey thats just me....... I'm the ugly duckling when it comes to this I guess, which is fine with me! ;-D



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Postby Amazinz » Fri Oct 13, 2006 11:51 am

It seems like this animosity toward people who enjoy creating their own rankings surfaces every year. It's funny that throughout the season the so-called expert sites get bashed regularly but when it comes to their projections they're experts.

If you enjoy the mathematical aspect of it all and take the time to learn a program like Excel or Access or even a scripting language creating the base projections for the entire MLB takes very little time.

The benefit is that I have my base projections now and I can begin working on fine-tuning them as we move through the off-season. The major outlets do not begin posting their projections until the beginning of the new year.

Also, realize that those of you who enjoy doing rankings or fine-tuning someone elses projections are basically doing the same thing. We're all applying our opinions and experiences to a base data set. The major difference is that those who enjoy making their own are taking it several steps further and usually have a more structured approach.

If you really want to have a laugh take RotoTimes projections and compile them on a team basis and then on a league basis. You're very right when you say individual lines are tough to predict but you can get an awfully good snapshot of the league overall. And when a site like RotoTimes is assigning more AB or H or whatever to a team's players than that team can possibly accrue, you know something is wrong.

To each his own.
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Postby TheYanks04 » Fri Oct 13, 2006 11:52 am

J35J wrote:....like I said, I guess I'm just a different kind of animal when it comes to this.


Also I would feel like I didn't "do my job" or had someone else draft for me if I didn't do it the way I do it. If all I did was bring a magazine to the draft or print off "Rototimes" rankings with a few scratch marks on them and bring them to the draft then you might as well be a noob or do an auto draft or something. My wife could go grab a mag or some "experts" rankings/projections and draft a good team and thats annoying to me. I like to feel like I did it on my own without the help of the so called "experts". I like to feel like I'M the expert and to rely on myself. I win because of MY decisions and lose because of MY decisions. The more I think about it the more I'm suprised more people aren't like me...... :-?

But hey thats just me....... I'm the ugly duckling when it comes to this I guess, which is fine with me! ;-D



Jason



No one says use that sheet as the bible. It is a guide. You black list players you do not like , move guys up you think are breakout candidates, make decisions based on position or potential, etc. There are a lot of factors that come into play. Only a fool would even use his own projection sheet as a blind guide in a draft or even worse an auction. That list is a guideline for the relative value of a player against his peers.

For ex., If I have Smoltz projected as a 25 dollar pitcher based on his numbers in an auction, does that mean I blindly will bid up to 25 on him and stop? No of course not. Does that mean that if I have him at 25 and Rototimes has him at 23 we are really that much off...no of course not. They are estimates. You have to judge how much Smoltz is worth to you, what other pitchers are left, how much money you have left, what your opponents are up to, etc.

In a draft it is a similar thing. Can I reasobably expect Smoltz to get back to me if I bypass him her in round 6? What happens if someone else gets him and what is my fallback, etc. The sheets are guides to relative values of one player versus another and a guide that should show you major differences in values pretty clearly.

If you read too much into them you are being foolish. But they are a useful tool. I think the point here is that getting a list from a reputable provider and tweaking things to your liking is simply an easier and likel just as accurate way to go. After you tweak a list, itis not like that list is going to vary by any significant % from one you would have done yourself assuming you wanted to spend the time. Again, show me how your estiation of how many HRs and rbis Arod will have for 2007 is going to be any more accuarte than someone elses.

40/130 or 35/115? I dunno. Your guess is as good as mine. Yet it is more than 10% of a variaton.
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Postby mak1277 » Fri Oct 13, 2006 11:58 am

TheYanks04 wrote:In a draft it is a similar thing. Can I reasobably expect Smoltz to get back to me if I bypass him her in round 6? What happens if someone else gets him and what is my fallback, etc. The sheets are guides to relative values of one player versus another and a guide that should show you major differences in values pretty clearly.


See, I think this is a crucial concept. If you are only using your own projections to base your draft on, you're going to end up overpaying for certain players and missing out on other because you aren't taking into account the relative value (based on public perception, for lack of a better term).

Just because you have a certain player projected to break out doesn't mean you should draft him based on his projected stats. Just because you think a player is a second rounder based on your projected stats doesn't mean you should draft him there. If everyone else on the planet thinks he should be a 5th rounder, you're overpaying by taking him in round 2.

I think ignoring the "expert" rankings is just as big a mistake as blindly following them.
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