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My top 20 shortstops

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Postby BigLebowski » Wed Oct 11, 2006 11:13 pm

Havok1517 wrote:
Stu2k5 wrote:
Havok1517 wrote:It appears Phillips will be the Reds SS next year. Where does he rank?


If he is at SS, does that mean Freel goes back to 2B? Is this the year that Freel finally gets past 500AB. 8-o

sorry to hijack.


Not sure if Freel would return to 2B. There has been talk of Harris being the everyday 2B or Aurilla splitting time there if he is resigned. Right now, I think Freel is the best option in RF for the Reds since Denorfia looked completely overmatched in regular ABs.
I agree here. Freel needs to play RF over Denorfia, if the reds don't make a move
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Postby Halo Homers » Thu Oct 12, 2006 4:00 pm

This is a very solid list.

SS has become a very deep position over the last couple of years. quality all the way down to the #11 slot IMO.

My only two comments are:

1) I know Hanley Ramirez only has one year under his belt, but I think he is the real deal. At #8 he's a steal. I think he belongs up around #5. In a keeper, he's definetely top 5 material.

2) Depending on where he lands, Lugo will be a nice sleeper pick. When is playing reqularly, he's 20HR/30 SB material guy who will score a lot of runs and hit for a decent average.
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Postby RugbyD » Thu Oct 12, 2006 4:19 pm

I think Stephen Drew is too low. I personally think he has a slightly better chance of finishing inside the top 10 than outside of it. I haven't cobbled together any projections to argue the point yet though.
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Postby J35J » Thu Oct 12, 2006 4:21 pm

RugbyD wrote:I think Stephen Drew is too low. I personally think he has a slightly better chance of finishing inside the top 10 than outside of it. I haven't cobbled together any projections to argue the point yet though.



I agree with you. He's definately a guy who could move up the list depending on where he's going to see most of his ABs in the lineup.


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Postby Field » Fri Oct 13, 2006 2:12 am

I'm actually interested to hear some opinions on Felipe Lopez. Here's a guy who started off this season on a tear, sparking the turbines of the Cafe Hype Machine into action at the begining of the year.

Background:

Felipe was a former 1st round pick (8th overall) by the Toronto Bluejays in 1998. Currently 26 years old, Lopez had a mini-breakout last year launching 26 homeruns playing for the Reds at the Great American Ball Park for half his games. That same year, he won the Louisville Slugger's Silver Slugger Award as the best offensive shortstop in the National League. This past season, he continued to produce during the first half piling up 9 Hr's and 23 SB's before the break; however, his power numbers dropped off significantly in the second half (only 2 homeruns). This power shortage coincided with his trade to the Nationals along with Austin Kearns.

Lopez is a guy who I reached for a round or two early in the first year of my main keeper league (6 keepers) because I felt that because of his age and position he could have, quite possibly, been a keeper for me going into next year (similar to Reyes or Rollins). What can we expect from him as far as power numbers going forward? For a year and a half, he produced the numbers of a 20 homerun SS with 40 plus stolen base potential.

Lets compare Lopez other somewhat similar SS's:

Here are there '05 and '06 stats:
Hit/AB R HR RBI SB AVG OPS

Felipe Lopez (26)
169/580 97 23 85 15 .291 .838
169/617 98 11 52 44 .274 .739

Jimmy Rollins (29)
196/677 115 12 54 41 .290 .769
191/689 127 25 83 36 .277 .812

Jose Reyes (23)
190/696 99 7 58 60 .273 .686
194/647 122 19 81 64 .300 .841

It is just me or does Lopez's 06 looks very simliar to Rollins' 05 (even with the hit streak)? Rollins will probably be considered an early 3rd round selection going into this year. Rollins severely dissapointed in '05. Why do people assume this will not happen to Rollins again or Reyes for that matter? A 12-13 homerun spike seems pretty suspect especially for leadoff hitters. It just seems to me that Lopez has much better "value" going into next as far as draft price is concerned.

As far as Felipe's team going into next year, it looks like he is going to be a Free Agent from what I have been able to find:

"Reds agreed to terms with shortstop Felipe Lopez on a one-year, $2.7 million contract.

Lopez asked for $3 million in his first year of arbitration and was offered $2.15 million. The Reds have only Adam Dunn left in arbitration."

If he leaves RFK he could prove to be solid value (again).

Does anyone have any other comments on Lopez? Or has everyone given up on him? I'm particularly interested in his power potential because he has not shown any signficant power prior to 05. He was the 11th ranked SS in 06 and 13th on J35J's list, is it out of line to think that he could end up top 5 at the end of next year? For some reason, I feel like 06 was an abnormally good year for shortstops.
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Postby TheYanks04 » Fri Oct 13, 2006 2:21 am

Field wrote:I'm actually interested to hear some opinions on Felipe Lopez. Here's a guy who started off this season on a tear, sparking the turbines of the Cafe Hype Machine into action at the begining of the year.

Background:

Felipe was a former 1st round pick (8th overall) by the Toronto Bluejays in 1998. Currently 26 years old, Lopez had a mini-breakout last year launching 26 homeruns playing for the Reds at the Great American Ball Park for half his games. That same year, he won the Louisville Slugger's Silver Slugger Award as the best offensive shortstop in the National League. This past season, he continued to produce during the first half piling up 9 Hr's and 23 SB's before the break; however, his power numbers dropped off significantly in the second half (only 2 homeruns). This power shortage coincided with his trade to the Nationals along with Austin Kearns.

Lopez is a guy who I reached for a round or two early in the first year of my main keeper league (6 keepers) because I felt that because of his age and position he could have, quite possibly, been a keeper for me going into next year (similar to Reyes or Rollins). What can we expect from him as far as power numbers going forward? For a year and a half, he produced the numbers of a 20 homerun SS with 40 plus stolen base potential.

Lets compare Lopez other somewhat similar SS's:

Here are there '05 and '06 stats:
Hit/AB R HR RBI SB AVG OPS

Felipe Lopez (26)
169/580 97 23 85 15 .291 .838
169/617 98 11 52 44 .274 .739

Jimmy Rollins (29)
196/677 115 12 54 41 .290 .769
191/689 127 25 83 36 .277 .812

Jose Reyes (23)
190/696 99 7 58 60 .273 .686
194/647 122 19 81 64 .300 .841

It is just me or does Lopez's 06 looks very simliar to Rollins' 05 (even with the hit streak)? Rollins will probably be considered an early 3rd round selection going into this year. Rollins severely dissapointed in '05. Why do people assume this will not happen to Rollins again or Reyes for that matter? A 12-13 homerun spike seems pretty suspect especially for leadoff hitters. It just seems to me that Lopez has much better "value" going into next as far as draft price is concerned.

As far as Felipe's team going into next year, it looks like he is going to be a Free Agent from what I have been able to find:

"Reds agreed to terms with shortstop Felipe Lopez on a one-year, $2.7 million contract.

Lopez asked for $3 million in his first year of arbitration and was offered $2.15 million. The Reds have only Adam Dunn left in arbitration."

If he leaves RFK he could prove to be solid value (again).

Does anyone have any other comments on Lopez? Or has everyone given up on him? I'm particularly interested in his power potential because he has not shown any signficant power prior to 05. He was the 11th ranked SS in 06 and 13th on J35J's list, is it out of line to think that he could end up top 5 at the end of next year? For some reason, I feel like 06 was an abnormally good year for shortstops.


I think he has a way to go to catch up to Rollins. He benefited by playing in Cincy. The speed is obviously legit. The power I am not sold on. The problem with guys like him is he is basically a Renteria/O. Cabrera type player with more speed and less pop. He could be good or very mediocre depending on the year he is havin g imo. You could certainly do worse at SS and if you miss out on the elite 6-7 SSs, he is a guy to target. The SBs alone give him significant value at aposition where not having a 30/100 player does not kill you nearly as much.
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Postby Bing Hampton » Fri Oct 13, 2006 8:07 am

Halo Homers wrote:

2) Depending on where he lands, Lugo will be a nice sleeper pick. When is playing reqularly, he's 20HR/30 SB material guy who will score a lot of runs and hit for a decent average.


Not sure if you are talking about the same Julio Lugo that I know of, but he will NEVER hit 20 home runs and has stolen 30 bases only once in 7 seasons. He is a good guy to look at late, has a lot of versatility, but his power and speed numbers pale in comparison to most of these other guys.
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Postby Yoda » Fri Oct 13, 2006 11:11 am

Halo Homers wrote:2) Depending on where he lands, Lugo will be a nice sleeper pick. When is playing reqularly, he's 20HR/30 SB material guy who will score a lot of runs and hit for a decent average.


I agree Lugo is a nice bargain but expecting anywhere near 20 HR is not very prudent.
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Postby GotowarMissAgnes » Fri Oct 13, 2006 5:03 pm

Field wrote:I'm actually interested to hear some opinions on Felipe Lopez. Here's a guy who started off this season on a tear, sparking the turbines of the Cafe Hype Machine into action at the begining of the year.


I still like Lopez and going forward look for him to provide solid numbers, with 10-20 HRs and 20-40 SBs, along with a decent BA and R. Certainly, he'd be a better value out of DC, but to really step it up to the next level, he needs to hit lefties. He still hits 40-50 points less against them, and until he can do better there, his numbers won't be top 5.
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Postby BravesGuy » Fri Oct 13, 2006 5:20 pm

Havok1517 wrote:It appears Phillips will be the Reds SS next year. Where does he rank?

I'd like to hear your thoughts on where he ranks as well.
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