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Postby Amazinz » Tue Oct 17, 2006 5:59 pm

While it's true the R and RBI are affected by factors outside of the player's control you can still account for these factors when making your projections. Are they tougher predict? It may be counter-intuitive but in my experience they are not. Not until you start projecting players for deep talent pools such as -only leagues. David Ortiz could play on any team in baseball and post 100+ RBI.
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Postby Tavish » Wed Oct 18, 2006 8:04 am

bigwords wrote:
Tavish wrote:This is when straight-up dollar values can be somewhat misleading. One of the easiest ways to overcome it is to break it down a little further and determine what each player's value is in the different categories. Then you can start to determine where your money is going a little more accurately. It can keep you from overspending is specific areas.


I agree that straight-up dollar values can be misleading. For one thing, if everyone starts undervaluing a certain category in my league—like steals—it's likely I'd wind up with a roster strong in speed and struggling in the other categories.

But I'm a little skeptical about the narrowing-in-on-category approach too. I think it has two major flaws.

1) Say you were to buy two players. One is extremely strong in HRs (+1) and weak in SBs (0) and the other is very strong in SBs (+1) and weak in HRs (0). From a value standpoint, you've accumulated two players good in each of the category (.5, .5). Problem is, however, you've opened yourself up to great degree of risk. If either of these players gets hurt, suddenly, you have a huge hole in one of these categories (.5, 0). There's something to be said for getting well-rounded players, especially at the start of the season. You can much easier acquire one-dimensional players stars (the Chris Duffy's of the world) later when you're targeting a specific category. But my big point is on the RISK factor.

[snip]

I think it's important to keep everything in mind—your team needs with the most efficient use of your dollars. I'm just looking for a tool that will help me figure out the latter. In my dream scenario, I have a computer that lets me enter a player I've won at auction and then spits out a new efficiency spending matrix based on value on the board and team needs.


That's pretty much what narrowing in on dollar values by category does. It also helps you understand the risks of each player better than just assigning a single value to a player.

Example league (ignoring positional values for the moment):
You determine that it will take 150 SB to win the SB category and according to last year's values each Stolen Base costs $0.25. In order to win the category you are judging it will cost about $37.50 of your team salary. You project Pierre as a $20 player overall with $11.25 of his value coming from SB (45 steals). If you draft Pierre you have a good idea of how much more you will need to spend on players with steals. Assuming you went on to spend another $30 on steals, you will be able to see that if Pierre goes down that your team should produce $30 in the steals cat which likely isn't enough to win, but enough to be very competitive.

Narrowing it down to specific category values doesn't change the actual value of the players, it simply help track more closely what you are buying.
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