Maddux still worth a late pick? - Fantasy Baseball Cafe 2015 Fantasy Baseball Cafe
100% Deposit Bonus for Cafe Members!

Return to Baseball Leftovers

Maddux still worth a late pick?

Moderator: Baseball Moderators

Postby George_Foreman » Mon Oct 16, 2006 3:14 pm

ukrneal wrote:So while he is clearly no longer a frontline starter, he is exactly the type of boring player who can add a lot of value to a team.

This is exactly how I see him.

As for how he'll do next year vs. the 20 million young guys, well, count on 15 mil or so of them to regress, not improve on their year this year....

I'm guessing a lot of people are going to get burned taking young pitchers in the first 10 rounds next year.
"I don't buy everything I read,
I havn't even read everything I've bought"

"I find it more comforting to believe that this [life] isn't simply a test."
George_Foreman
General Manager
General Manager

User avatar

Posts: 4351
Joined: 16 Apr 2004
Home Cafe: Baseball
Location: at Morimoto's, eating $50 worth of sushi

Postby J35J » Mon Oct 16, 2006 3:56 pm

George_Foreman wrote:I'm guessing a lot of people are going to get burned taking young pitchers in the first 10 rounds next year.



Couldn't agree more!


Jason
J35J
Hall of Fame Hero
Hall of Fame Hero

User avatar
CafeholicFantasy ExpertCafe WriterCafe RankerMock(ing) DrafterPick 3 Weekly Winner
Posts: 10467
(Past Year: 358)
Joined: 26 Jan 2004
Home Cafe: Baseball

Postby ukrneal » Tue Oct 17, 2006 2:44 am

stumpak wrote:You guys are using history as a prelude to the future, which is not the right thing to do with an inconistent 40 year old SP. Sure Maddux had a 1.22 WHIP this season, but it is not 100% that he repeats this next year. In fact, I would conseriavtively gage a 30% chance that he is slightly worse, a 10% chance that he completely falls apart and very little chance that he is better.

So the fact that he was top 50 this year is not especially germane. And if you beleive that he stands a good chance to be better than Johnson again next season, I have some beachfront property in Oklahoma to sell you. Without even looking at the numbers, I am pretty certain that his 2005 superiority to Johnson, if this is true in roto 5x5, is attributable to the fact that Johnson pitched out of the pen for 25% of the season and also missed a few starts due to injury.


I don't know, he's about as consistent as you get: WHIP of 1.18, 1.22 and 1.22 the past three years, ERA of 4.02-4.24, K's 151 down to 117 last year, and 15,13,16 wins over last three. If you think he's going to forget how to pitch a la Cone, don't take him. Sure, history gets you only so far, but as a late round pick I don't see the risk. If he stinks, you pick up someone else.
ukrneal
General Manager
General Manager


Posts: 2322
Joined: 29 Jan 2004
Home Cafe: Baseball

Postby rainman23 » Tue Oct 17, 2006 12:26 pm

A guy like Maddux can wind up on your roster for a while, and he's not gonna kill you. But, sheesh, don't go into 2007 with drafting Maddux as part of your master plan. Guys like this are always available. I drafted the guy in 2003 and wound up considering it a bad pick. Three years later he's not looking any more attractive. The marginal value he might provide in WHIP is more than offset by his other disadvantages. You'll be crossing your fingers every time you roll him out there. You use guys like Maddux because you have to, not because you think it's a good idea.

Sure, draft him in the late rounds if you want, because you're not going to hang onto those guys long anyway. But don't delude yourself that building around guys like Maddux is a prescription for anything but mediocrity.
rainman23
Minor League Mentor
Minor League Mentor


Posts: 937
Joined: 19 Mar 2005
Home Cafe: Baseball

Postby George_Foreman » Tue Oct 17, 2006 1:24 pm

rainman23 wrote: Guys like this are always available.

...

Sure, draft him in the late rounds if you want, because you're not going to hang onto those guys long anyway. But don't delude yourself that building around guys like Maddux is a prescription for anything but mediocrity.


Incorrect, sir! I mean, maybe if you play in shallow leagues where everyone's running around with an ERA under 3.50 or something, but otherwise, in any competitive league with reasonable pitching depth and intelligent, active owners, Maddux should have been rostered for most of the season. Guys with ratios like that are not available on the waiver wire. Name 3 guys with similar ratios who were widely avialable on the waiver wire in competitive leagues. Go on, I dare you.
"I don't buy everything I read,
I havn't even read everything I've bought"

"I find it more comforting to believe that this [life] isn't simply a test."
George_Foreman
General Manager
General Manager

User avatar

Posts: 4351
Joined: 16 Apr 2004
Home Cafe: Baseball
Location: at Morimoto's, eating $50 worth of sushi

Postby Yoda » Tue Oct 17, 2006 1:31 pm

George_Foreman wrote:
rainman23 wrote: Guys like this are always available.

...

Sure, draft him in the late rounds if you want, because you're not going to hang onto those guys long anyway. But don't delude yourself that building around guys like Maddux is a prescription for anything but mediocrity.


Incorrect, sir! I mean, maybe if you play in shallow leagues where everyone's running around with an ERA under 3.50 or something, but otherwise, in any competitive league with reasonable pitching depth and intelligent, active owners, Maddux should have been rostered for most of the season. Guys with ratios like that are not available on the waiver wire. Name 3 guys with similar ratios who were widely avialable on the waiver wire in competitive leagues. Go on, I dare you.


Tom Glavine? Bedard? Josh Johnson?
Yoda
Hall of Fame Hero
Hall of Fame Hero

User avatar
Fantasy ExpertMock(ing) Drafter
Posts: 21344
Joined: 21 Jan 2005
Home Cafe: Baseball
Location: 15th green...

Postby George_Foreman » Tue Oct 17, 2006 1:38 pm

You're kidding, right? When were these guys on the waiver wire? Like, April or something? I'm talking about guys you could go pick up now with similar stats.

Glavine was drafted in most leagues, AFAIK, and I know a lot of people liked Bedard as a sleeper. (I didn't. I was impressed by his performance this year.) As for Johnson, his ratios aren't "comperable"; his ERA is a full point lower than Maddux's! If this guy was available any time after his first few starts, your league is nothing but shallow. :-/
"I don't buy everything I read,
I havn't even read everything I've bought"

"I find it more comforting to believe that this [life] isn't simply a test."
George_Foreman
General Manager
General Manager

User avatar

Posts: 4351
Joined: 16 Apr 2004
Home Cafe: Baseball
Location: at Morimoto's, eating $50 worth of sushi

Postby Yoda » Tue Oct 17, 2006 1:45 pm

George_Foreman wrote:You're kidding, right? When were these guys on the waiver wire? Like, April or something? I'm talking about guys you could go pick up now with similar stats.

Glavine was drafted in most leagues, AFAIK, and I know a lot of people liked Bedard as a sleeper. (I didn't. I was impressed by his performance this year.) As for Johnson, his ratios aren't "comperable"; his ERA is a full point lower than Maddux's! If this guy was available any time after his first few starts, your league is nothing but shallow. :-/


You asked if any pitchers comparable in value were available through FA. Those guys were at one point another available in a lot of leagues like Maddux was.

I guess my point is that while Maddux did perform better than most people gave him credit for, he is not someone you absolutely cannot replace through FA.
Yoda
Hall of Fame Hero
Hall of Fame Hero

User avatar
Fantasy ExpertMock(ing) Drafter
Posts: 21344
Joined: 21 Jan 2005
Home Cafe: Baseball
Location: 15th green...

Postby George_Foreman » Tue Oct 17, 2006 1:51 pm

Well, I contend that if you count on being the guy to grab the young pitcher first or that other managers will be impatient (read: bad), you won't do well in tough leagues.

Incidently, when exactly was Glavine available on the WW? He had like one bad stretch this year, and if people bail on their picks after one bad stretch, well, maybe they should play Fantasy Football instead....
"I don't buy everything I read,
I havn't even read everything I've bought"

"I find it more comforting to believe that this [life] isn't simply a test."
George_Foreman
General Manager
General Manager

User avatar

Posts: 4351
Joined: 16 Apr 2004
Home Cafe: Baseball
Location: at Morimoto's, eating $50 worth of sushi

Postby Simulacrum » Tue Oct 17, 2006 2:03 pm

Agree with George Foreman- Maddux is still a solid late round pick. ERA 4.2 and Whip 1.22 from a # 4 or 5 pitcher? That's called being in pretty good shape...
Image
2008 Cafeholics Pond Scum Champion
Future Champion of 2009 Cafeholics Masters
Simulacrum
Hall of Fame Hero
Hall of Fame Hero

User avatar
Chief Pixel PusherCafeholicFantasy ExpertCafe WriterCafe RankerMock(ing) DrafterEagle EyeInnovative MemberWeb Supporter
Posts: 9875
Joined: 12 Apr 2005
Home Cafe: Baseball
Location: On a Mission

PreviousNext

Return to Baseball Leftovers

Who is online

Users browsing this forum: Byuilsiyka and 5 guests

Forums Articles & Tips Sleepers Rankings Leagues


Get Ready...
The 2015 MLB season starts in 10:00 hours
(and 91 days)

  • Fantasy Baseball
  • Article Submissions
  • Privacy Statement
  • Site Survey 
  • Contact