Maddux still worth a late pick?

[George_Foreman]

So while he is clearly no longer a frontline starter, he is exactly the type of boring player who can add a lot of value to a team.

This is exactly how I see him.

As for how he'll do next year vs. the 20 million young guys, well, count on 15 mil or so of them to regress, not improve on their year this year....

I'm guessing a lot of people are going to get burned taking young pitchers in the first 10 rounds next year.

[J35J]

I'm guessing a lot of people are going to get burned taking young pitchers in the first 10 rounds next year.

Couldn't agree more!


Jason

[ukrneal]

You guys are using history as a prelude to the future, which is not the right thing to do with an inconistent 40 year old SP. Sure Maddux had a 1.22 WHIP this season, but it is not 100% that he repeats this next year. In fact, I would conseriavtively gage a 30% chance that he is slightly worse, a 10% chance that he completely falls apart and very little chance that he is better.

So the fact that he was top 50 this year is not especially germane. And if you beleive that he stands a good chance to be better than Johnson again next season, I have some beachfront property in Oklahoma to sell you. Without even looking at the numbers, I am pretty certain that his 2005 superiority to Johnson, if this is true in roto 5x5, is attributable to the fact that Johnson pitched out of the pen for 25% of the season and also missed a few starts due to injury.

I don't know, he's about as consistent as you get: WHIP of 1.18, 1.22 and 1.22 the past three years, ERA of 4.02-4.24, K's 151 down to 117 last year, and 15,13,16 wins over last three. If you think he's going to forget how to pitch a la Cone, don't take him. Sure, history gets you only so far, but as a late round pick I don't see the risk. If he stinks, you pick up someone else.

[rainman23]

A guy like Maddux can wind up on your roster for a while, and he's not gonna kill you. But, sheesh, don't go into 2007 with drafting Maddux as part of your master plan. Guys like this are always available. I drafted the guy in 2003 and wound up considering it a bad pick. Three years later he's not looking any more attractive. The marginal value he might provide in WHIP is more than offset by his other disadvantages. You'll be crossing your fingers every time you roll him out there. You use guys like Maddux because you have to, not because you think it's a good idea.

Sure, draft him in the late rounds if you want, because you're not going to hang onto those guys long anyway. But don't delude yourself that building around guys like Maddux is a prescription for anything but mediocrity.

[George_Foreman]

Guys like this are always available.

...

Sure, draft him in the late rounds if you want, because you're not going to hang onto those guys long anyway. But don't delude yourself that building around guys like Maddux is a prescription for anything but mediocrity.

Incorrect, sir! I mean, maybe if you play in shallow leagues where everyone's running around with an ERA under 3.50 or something, but otherwise, in any competitive league with reasonable pitching depth and intelligent, active owners, Maddux should have been rostered for most of the season. Guys with ratios like that are not available on the waiver wire. Name 3 guys with similar ratios who were widely avialable on the waiver wire in competitive leagues. Go on, I dare you.

[Yoda]

Guys like this are always available.

...

Sure, draft him in the late rounds if you want, because you're not going to hang onto those guys long anyway. But don't delude yourself that building around guys like Maddux is a prescription for anything but mediocrity.

Incorrect, sir! I mean, maybe if you play in shallow leagues where everyone's running around with an ERA under 3.50 or something, but otherwise, in any competitive league with reasonable pitching depth and intelligent, active owners, Maddux should have been rostered for most of the season. Guys with ratios like that are not available on the waiver wire. Name 3 guys with similar ratios who were widely avialable on the waiver wire in competitive leagues. Go on, I dare you.

Tom Glavine? Bedard? Josh Johnson?

[George_Foreman]

You're kidding, right? When were these guys on the waiver wire? Like, April or something? I'm talking about guys you could go pick up now with similar stats.

Glavine was drafted in most leagues, AFAIK, and I know a lot of people liked Bedard as a sleeper. (I didn't. I was impressed by his performance this year.) As for Johnson, his ratios aren't "comperable"; his ERA is a full point lower than Maddux's! If this guy was available any time after his first few starts, your league is nothing but shallow.

[Yoda]

You're kidding, right? When were these guys on the waiver wire? Like, April or something? I'm talking about guys you could go pick up now with similar stats.

Glavine was drafted in most leagues, AFAIK, and I know a lot of people liked Bedard as a sleeper. (I didn't. I was impressed by his performance this year.) As for Johnson, his ratios aren't "comperable"; his ERA is a full point lower than Maddux's! If this guy was available any time after his first few starts, your league is nothing but shallow.

You asked if any pitchers comparable in value were available through FA. Those guys were at one point another available in a lot of leagues like Maddux was.

I guess my point is that while Maddux did perform better than most people gave him credit for, he is not someone you absolutely cannot replace through FA.

[George_Foreman]

Well, I contend that if you count on being the guy to grab the young pitcher first or that other managers will be impatient (read: bad), you won't do well in tough leagues.

Incidently, when exactly was Glavine available on the WW? He had like one bad stretch this year, and if people bail on their picks after one bad stretch, well, maybe they should play Fantasy Football instead....

[Simulacrum]

Agree with George Foreman- Maddux is still a solid late round pick. ERA 4.2 and Whip 1.22 from a # 4 or 5 pitcher? That's called being in pretty good shape...