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Maddux still worth a late pick?

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Postby TheYanks04 » Fri Oct 13, 2006 10:27 am

J35J wrote:I could see myself grabbing Maddux to finish out my roster in the 18+ rds. I think Maddux's value will lie as trade bait if he can start his first 3-5 starts pretty good then his name packaged with someone else should net you something decent with someone in your league.

I always tend to draft 2-3 guys at the end of the draft thinking "if this guy starts off hot then he will be really good trade bait" and I think Maddux would fall into that category nicely!

Jason



This is true. Only problem is that the book on Maddux is out. After his hot streak and melt down again this year, you might find it a lot harder to find someone who will value Maddux in 2007 to that degree. Though you are right that their usually will be one fool who does not know what they are doing or can't follow a stat trend past a 3 week horizon and want to trade for the flavor of the week.
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Postby cordscords » Fri Oct 13, 2006 11:20 am

One thing that's not being discussed here is his age. He turns 40 next April, and while there are guys past 40 that can still get the job done, there are others who seem to just suck without warning.

Would it really surprise anybody if Maddux had a 4.75 ERA and a 1.30 WHIP next year?

I would rather draft Daniel Cabrera to stash on my bench just to monitor him for his first few starts to see if he learned where the strike zone is, or grab Shields/Zumaya.
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Postby Yoda » Fri Oct 13, 2006 12:04 pm

raiders_umpire wrote:Maddux is more of a spot starter now imo. He would be the type of pitcher that I would draft and start him for 20 of his 33 games.


Yeah aside from ERA and potentially W, his value is not that high anymore.
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Postby George_Foreman » Fri Oct 13, 2006 1:20 pm

Yeah, that 1.22 WHIP would have sure hurt my team....

ETA: Do none of you play in leagues where you have to start guys with 4+ ERAs just to get anywhere near your innings cap? I mean, it's not every league that you get to add Justin Verlander, Jared Weaver, and Fransico Liriano to the same roster.... Some times you just need innings that will get you counting stats without killing your ratios (which, IMO, is what spot starting on a regular basis can easily do to you). Maddux is just that kind of guy: low risk, low reward.

In the past three years, his ERA has been right around 4.00-4.20 and his WHIP right around 1.20.

Are you guys looking at his stats relative to his career or relative to the rest of the league? Becuase he has NEVER posted an ERA+ below 100 so far in his career. Sure, he won't get you TONS of Ks. But he will NOT hurt your ratios at all and might actually help them. Add to that the fact that he'll get you decent Ws, and I see NO reason to not draft him as your 5th starter in a competitive league.

Think of him as insurance in case Daniel Carbrera doesn't turn into somebody decent.

ETA: Anyone gonna draft Livan Hernandez next year? Because Maddux had far supperior numbers this year.
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Postby cordscords » Fri Oct 13, 2006 1:34 pm

George_Foreman wrote:Yeah, that 1.22 WHIP would have sure hurt my team....

ETA: Do none of you play in leagues where you have to start guys with 4+ ERAs just to get anywhere near your innings cap? I mean, it's not every league that you get to add Justin Verlander, Jared Weaver, and Fransico Liriano to the same roster.... Some times you just need innings that will get you counting stats without killing your ratios (which, IMO, is what spot starting on a regular basis can easily do to you). Maddux is just that kind of guy: low risk, low reward.

In the past three years, his ERA has been right around 4.00-4.20 and his WHIP right around 1.20.

Are you guys looking at his stats relative to his career or relative to the rest of the league? Becuase he has NEVER posted an ERA+ below 100 so far in his career. Sure, he won't get you TONS of Ks. But he will NOT hurt your ratios at all and might actually help them. Add to that the fact that he'll get you decent Ws, and I see NO reason to not draft him as your 5th starter in a competitive league.

Think of him as insurance in case Daniel Carbrera doesn't turn into somebody decent.

ETA: Anyone gonna draft Livan Hernandez next year? Because Maddux had far supperior numbers this year.


If Cabrera isn't impressing me after his first few starts, I drop him and pick up another project that excites me. Eventually I will strike gold. It's worked out fine for me since I started FB.
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Postby TheYanks04 » Fri Oct 13, 2006 1:57 pm

cordscords wrote:One thing that's not being discussed here is his age. He turns 40 next April, and while there are guys past 40 that can still get the job done, there are others who seem to just suck without warning.

Would it really surprise anybody if Maddux had a 4.75 ERA and a 1.30 WHIP next year?

I would rather draft Daniel Cabrera to stash on my bench just to monitor him for his first few starts to see if he learned where the strike zone is, or grab Shields/Zumaya.



Yes I do.

But remeber the two most populare styles of Roto leagues are daily or weekly roster transactions.

In weekly leagues, there does not tend to be IP maxs but IP mins. You are more concerned in a weekly league about the roster slot for the week and you want to get the most stats from it. Now if you go deep enough, eventually Maddux gains some value here, but in a 10 or 12 team league where say on average 6 SPs are starting he is at best a marginal play for the week depending on who is on your bench and who is on your wire and what the matchups are. You might be more interested here in getting a 2 start pitcher. Or since you are playing for the long haul, you might just decide to bypass the spot for a reliever in order to protect ERA and get a save or two depending on who you can go to.

In daily leagues, you can spot start a pitcher day to day. So max IPs come into play and usually leagues are set up so that you usually have to worry about running over the max IP limit not running under it. Again it depends on the league you are in. Generally though, a guy like Maddux will be a marginal play since he is not really bringing a lot to the table over and above what you can get from the wire or from a reliever. And there are plenty of matchups during the season of OK pitchers vs say TB on the road.

That said, I have been in leagues where you do need to fill in innings though. I have also played leagues where it is one of those situations where your ERA is bracketed in late August, you have no real hope of moving up in ERA and WHIP and not much to worry about losing points as you have a sizeable gap between yourself and the guys below you. And you notice that if you pile on some Ws and Ks you can make up some decent ground. So in that case, sure, a guy that maybe can be a useful spot starter is appealing. I am not all to concerned about the occassional blowup on the ERA or WHIP in this case. Again, a pitcher on the margin.
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Postby Yoda » Fri Oct 13, 2006 2:09 pm

There are so many young pitchers that are stepping up. I never recall any season where so many rookies and 1st year players made such a positive impact compared to 06. 07 will bring a new crop of young pitchers who are still in the minors. I will definitely be passing on middling starting pitchers at the end of their career like Maddux and RJ, pick up young, up and coming stud pitchers instead.
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Postby ukrneal » Mon Oct 16, 2006 7:31 am

Yoda wrote:There are so many young pitchers that are stepping up. I never recall any season where so many rookies and 1st year players made such a positive impact compared to 06. 07 will bring a new crop of young pitchers who are still in the minors. I will definitely be passing on middling starting pitchers at the end of their career like Maddux and RJ, pick up young, up and coming stud pitchers instead.


I will do exactly the opposite. Or, that is, I'll do both. Another way of saying it, let's hope he (Johnson, Olson, etc) doesn't pull a Zach Duke!

Whoever said that 1.22 is the average WHIP is just dead wrong. According to yahoo, the league average is 1.41!! (and 1.38 in 2005 - my calculation). I've always viewed anything under 1.3 as helpful for my team. In one league (my only roto league) I was in 2nd or third (out of 10) with a WHIP of 1.31-1.32. And I had Webb, Zambrano, Kazmir, Verlander, and Haren on my team.

How many SP's can you name that have a WHIP of under 1.22? (those not injured)? If you get more than 5-10 in either league, it is a miracle. 15 wins ties him for second in the NL with wins. a 4.0-4.2 ERA isn't that terrible either. His K's don't help that much.

I thought the Livan Hernandez comparison quite good as he always seems to find a team, da bum!

So while he is clearly no longer a frontline starter, he is exactly the type of boring player who can add a lot of value to a team.
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Postby stumpak » Mon Oct 16, 2006 10:25 am

You guys are using history as a prelude to the future, which is not the right thing to do with an inconistent 40 year old SP. Sure Maddux had a 1.22 WHIP this season, but it is not 100% that he repeats this next year. In fact, I would conseriavtively gage a 30% chance that he is slightly worse, a 10% chance that he completely falls apart and very little chance that he is better.

So the fact that he was top 50 this year is not especially germane. And if you beleive that he stands a good chance to be better than Johnson again next season, I have some beachfront property in Oklahoma to sell you. Without even looking at the numbers, I am pretty certain that his 2005 superiority to Johnson, if this is true in roto 5x5, is attributable to the fact that Johnson pitched out of the pen for 25% of the season and also missed a few starts due to injury.
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Postby Yoda » Mon Oct 16, 2006 11:21 am

He performed a lot better than I gave him credit for in 05. However, I think that his numbers will continue to decline.
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