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Maddux still worth a late pick?

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Postby j_d_mcnugent » Thu Oct 12, 2006 5:33 pm

very late pick in mixed leagues...perhaps not picked at all. since he doesnt strike out that many he is worthless if he is struggling. his monthly splits are all over the board. there will be a month or two he is worth using but the rest of the time he should be on waivers.

http://sports.yahoo.com/mlb/players/393 ... LsD0aFCLcF
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Postby davidmarver » Thu Oct 12, 2006 5:41 pm

raiders_umpire wrote:Maddux is more of a spot starter now imo. He would be the type of pitcher that I would draft and start him for 20 of his 33 games.

Same here. I think Maddux is too useful to sit around on the wire, but I don't think you can plug him in all 33 starts. He's a round 15+ player to me, but certainly is someone I wouldn't mind having at the back-end of my fantasy rotation.
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Postby George_Foreman » Thu Oct 12, 2006 11:48 pm

12-15 Ws, a 4.20 ERA and a 1.25 WHIP are really quite good numbers for your bottom-of-the-rotation guy. If he can do that over 100-150 IP, you're doing pretty well with a late pick. I mean, those are definitely better than replacement level numbers there....
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Postby TheYanks04 » Thu Oct 12, 2006 11:51 pm

George_Foreman wrote:12-15 Ws, a 4.20 ERA and a 1.25 WHIP are really quite good numbers for your bottom-of-the-rotation guy. If he can do that over 100-150 IP, you're doing pretty well with a late pick. I mean, those are definitely better than replacement level numbers there....



Not really when you factor in the low Ks. He would be marginal in 10 or 12 team leagues imo.
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Postby George_Foreman » Fri Oct 13, 2006 1:13 am

His numbers this year (which is basically what I'm saying he does next year, too; maybe a little better becuase of the extra time in LA) were good enough to land him in the top 50 of SPs. He's ahead of guys like Josh Johnson, Felix Hernandez, Kelvim Escobar, and Jon Garland.

That means he's easily worth a roster spot in 10-team leagues that have a 1250 IP cap, and DEFINITELY worth a spot in standard Yahoo! 12-teamers. Hell, he's a decent #4 guy in a standard Yahoo!

People just seem to expect a little too much out of their back-line starters. You can easily win a league with a couple guys like Maddux and Javy Vazquez (also a top 50 SP last year) in the rotation, provided you're only asking for ~150 IP out of them and you sit them against, say, the Mets and the Red Sox.
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Postby TheYanks04 » Fri Oct 13, 2006 1:21 am

George_Foreman wrote:His numbers this year (which is basically what I'm saying he does next year, too; maybe a little better becuase of the extra time in LA) were good enough to land him in the top 50 of SPs. He's ahead of guys like Josh Johnson, Felix Hernandez, Kelvim Escobar, and Jon Garland.

That means he's easily worth a roster spot in 10-team leagues that have a 1250 IP cap, and DEFINITELY worth a spot in standard Yahoo! 12-teamers. Hell, he's a decent #4 guy in a standard Yahoo!

People just seem to expect a little too much out of their back-line starters. You can easily win a league with a couple guys like Maddux and Javy Vazquez (also a top 50 SP last year) in the rotation, provided you're only asking for ~150 IP out of them and you sit them against, say, the Mets and the Red Sox.



Guys like Maddux are by their nature extremely erratic start to start. You can't pick the good ones and market time. They will blow up in your face versus crummy teams too.

And Josh Johnson posted a 3.1 ERA (almost a full point better). with a 1.3 WHIP and 133 Ks in only 157 IPs. Far far better than Maddux who posted 117 in 210 IPs. It is not even close between the 2.

Escobar had good numbers, just could not buy a W.

Maddux is simply not that good anymore. His ERA is too high, his Ks way too low. His W count low. About the only thing he does positively for you in a mixed league is control WHIP...and that is not saying a whole lot.
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Postby George_Foreman » Fri Oct 13, 2006 2:39 am

My point isn't that Maddux was better than these guys; just that he finished better than these guys. And top 50 isn't even boarderline. Standard Yahoo! leagues require like 6-8 SPs plus maybe a few guys for injuries. Even if each team only plays 6 guys, that's still 72 SPs who need to be rostered.

The thing you need to remember is that a 1.22 WHIP is very good. How teams people in your leagues (preferably competitive ones...) had a better WHIP than that? He'll be at least average ERA and Ws, better than average in WHIP, and below average in Ks. To me, that amounts to an all-around average pitcher. Which is just what you want for your #4 or 5 starter. I mean, sure, you can draft six SPs with your first 10 picks. And you'll probably have better stats than Maddux could give you. But then your hitting is trash. Maddux will give you solid innings, helping you in Ws and WHIP and not hurting you in ERA. Draft a guy like Vazquez to help make up the deficit in Ks. Not bad 16th/17th round picks for your 5 and 6 starters, and that's just more resources you can devout to batters earlier in the draft.
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Postby TheYanks04 » Fri Oct 13, 2006 9:52 am

First off, you will find that teams with SPs towards the bottom of that 60-72 range will field an extra reliever often before they will play with gasoline like a Maddux. Next you will find that the last set of SPs rostered are usually spot-started, esp in daily leagues. Meaning if I am going to play with fire, let's at least set up that fire to be going against a bad team with a weak offense in a pitcher's park. I did not see too many guys starting Maddux regualarly. He is marginal at best and gasoline at worst.

You can't accurately pick which starts he will do good in and which one he is likely to get lit up in. He is no better or worse than any of the bottom tier SPs. I would not draft him because he only has a downside not an upside and why would you want a pithcer that at best is going to give be a spot starter...a bottom fantasy tier value? At worst he is garbage. There are plenty of relievers you can pick up for spot duty for WHIP help that might actually help your ERA, Ks and pick up 5-6 Ws in the process too. I just do not see Maddux as being all that valuable at any time. You can usually find guys like him on the wire.
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Postby TheYanks04 » Fri Oct 13, 2006 10:19 am

An interesting note below from Rotoworld. Seems like the Dodgers are intent on winning and are going to open up the wallet for Soriano and Schmidt and try too ditch Maddux and Nomar.


Rotoworld:
The Dodgers are expected to try to sign pending free agent starter Jason Schmidt.

The Long Beach Press-Telegram reports that LA wants to add a starter and a top hitter (possibly Alfonso Soriano) before deciding whether to offer 2007 contracts to Greg Maddux and Nomar Garciaparra.
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Postby J35J » Fri Oct 13, 2006 10:22 am

I could see myself grabbing Maddux to finish out my roster in the 18+ rds. I think Maddux's value will lie as trade bait if he can start his first 3-5 starts pretty good then his name packaged with someone else should net you something decent with someone in your league.

I always tend to draft 2-3 guys at the end of the draft thinking "if this guy starts off hot then he will be really good trade bait" and I think Maddux would fall into that category nicely!

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