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Postby TheYanks04 » Fri Oct 06, 2006 12:18 am

CraigMasbruch wrote:
TheYanks04 wrote:
The_Met_Threat wrote:
TheYanks04 wrote:
Trot Nixon wrote:Does someone like Matt Holliday come close to being a 1st rounder?



No imo. Solid round 4-6 guy imo.


4-6? Were you in a coma for this past season?


One year at 34/114 does not make him round 1-3 material imo. You want to put Atkins there as well? His numbers are comparable and he plays 3b. A top 20's overall pick I just do not see. Top 30's sure.




First of all, a top 30's pick would make him a third rounder. Second of all, Atkins's numbers are not comparable. Third of all, Holliday did what many experts expected him to do this season: run a little and hit a lot. I don't think that makes him a first rounder, but if you see him in the fourth to sixth round you need to find a better league, because you're playing against 9-year-old girls.




The round is determinate by the depth of the league. I use a ten team league as it is a general standard. If you like 12 team leagues and want to use that fine. Either way he is not top 29 material imo. You have to factor in at least 4 - 7 pitchers going in the top 30 in most leagues also (Santana, Halladay, Carpenter, Oswalt for sure).

And using Rototimes base values for 2006, Holliday returned $32...Atkins $29. Essentially the same under 5x5 Roto, 10 team rules.


Players that will get picked before Holliday in almost all drafts I should think (in no particular order):

1. Reyes
2. Pujols
3. Soriano
4. Howard
5. Jeter
6. Crawford
7. Ortiz
8. Vlad
9. Berkman
10. Beltran
11. Utley
12. Carlos Lee
13. MCab
14. Arod
15. Wright
16. Morneau
17. Hafner
18. Tejada
19. Bay
20. Manny
21. Tex
22. Santana
23. Carpenter
24. Halladay
25. Oswalt
26. Sizemore
27. Suzuki (Probably, though I would not)
28. Dye (Ditto)


Alreadyin the late 20's overall and that is before we get to some debateables based on owners draft strategies such as VMart, Mauer, Zambrano, KRod, Rollins, H. Ramirez, V. Wells, A. Jones, Abreu, Konerko, Thome, Aram, etc. I can see Holliday go i the 30's. I do not see him going before that usually.
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Postby CraigMasbruch » Fri Oct 06, 2006 1:03 am

I would pick Holliday before a few of these guys, which for me puts him in the mid-20's. I take him before:

Jeter was nearly as good this past year, in his best year since '99
Morneau was nearly as good, but will he hit .320 or .220 next year?
Bay fell off big-time. No supporting cast.
Sizemore hasn't come close to his #'s
Suzuki in his best years, but not today
Dye career year at age 32; hasn't done much before.

This puts him at 23 on your list, a late 2nd rounder in most leagues. (I don't know many people who play in 10-team leagues). He was ranked #9 overall in Yahoo's ranking...34/114 doesn't tell the whole story. There's also 119 runs, 10 sb's, and a .326 avg, which you can expect to repeat. And he's getting better. So again, not a first rounder, but he'll be gone before the fourth, and if you wait til the sixth you're gonna end up with Adam Dunn hitting .250.
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Postby TheYanks04 » Fri Oct 06, 2006 1:19 am

CraigMasbruch wrote:I would pick Holliday before a few of these guys, which for me puts him in the mid-20's. I take him before:

Jeter was nearly as good this past year, in his best year since '99
Morneau was nearly as good, but will he hit .320 or .220 next year?
Bay fell off big-time. No supporting cast.
Sizemore hasn't come close to his #'s
Suzuki in his best years, but not today
Dye career year at age 32; hasn't done much before.

This puts him at 23 on your list, a late 2nd rounder in most leagues. (I don't know many people who play in 10-team leagues). He was ranked #9 overall in Yahoo's ranking...34/114 doesn't tell the whole story. There's also 119 runs, 10 sb's, and a .326 avg, which you can expect to repeat. And he's getting better. So again, not a first rounder, but he'll be gone before the fourth, and if you wait til the sixth you're gonna end up with Adam Dunn hitting .250.



Adam Dunn is not going anywhere near the 6th. He will be lucky to stay in the 8th or 9th. And there are probably more 10 team league than 12. Yahoo plays 12 as the standard. CBS plays 10 as do a number of other top providers for their free leagues.

As to Holliday, he and Atkins were $3 apart in 5x5 Roto. I take nothing away from Holliday, but he is not going to avg in the top 30 imo unless some fantay guru does a major hype job on him pre-season. SS is a lot thinner than the OF and Jeter is going to be coming off an MVP year. Morneau is everyone's overhyped greatest thing since sliced bread. Dye will be coming off a 40 HR season. People talk about Sizemore in comparison to Crawford. Suzuki always goes high and may be one of the most overrated fantasy guys around...still is going to be picked high.

Whether you agree with those accessments or not, they are around and someone in your league is going to believe them and pick accordingly. Maybe there will be Holliday hype owners too, but barring that, I think name alone is going to carry 30 someodd players to go before Holliday.
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Postby eazyb81 » Fri Oct 06, 2006 7:45 am

Thoughts on Berkman and Sizemore?

Berkman put up some ridiculous numbers this year, and he wasn't exactly an unknown coming into this season. Why doesn't he get 1st rd consideration?

Sizemore had a very solid year last year, and improved in basically all aspects this season. In a keeper league, i'd have to think he would at least make a push for the 1st round.
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Postby elltrain22 » Fri Oct 06, 2006 8:37 am

Everyone else is doing, so here is my list...

1. Pujols
2. Ryan Howard
3. Soriano
4. Santana
5. Ortiz
6. Reyes
7. Beltran
8. Arod
9. Vlad
10. Manny
11. Crawford
12. Jeter
13. Berkman
14. Utley
15. Cabrera
16. Wright
17. Morneau
18. Carlos Lee
19. Hafner
20. Carpenter
Image
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Postby stumpak » Fri Oct 06, 2006 9:11 am

I would love to play in a league where Tejada goes 8 spots ahead of Reyes, as some of these rankings have suggested.

Let's compare the two in a roto format

R: +20 to Reyes
RBI: +30 to Tejada
HR: +10 to Tejada
SB: +65 (at least) to Reyes
BA: Even

So which would you rather have, 65 SB and 20 R or 30 RBI and 10 HR? This is not even close, even if you discount Reyes a little bit due to the fact that Tejada is an iron man and he is not.

I also find it interesting how those who are down on Reyes, in this and other threads, can offer no more of a rationale than injuries from 2 years ago and "gut feelings".

Not to mention the strategic advantage that Reyes yields: if you own him, you do not have to worry about rolling the dice on questionable guys in the later rounds to stay competitive in SBs.
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Postby CraigMasbruch » Fri Oct 06, 2006 12:19 pm

TheYanks04 wrote:
CraigMasbruch wrote:I would pick Holliday before a few of these guys, which for me puts him in the mid-20's. I take him before:

Jeter was nearly as good this past year, in his best year since '99
Morneau was nearly as good, but will he hit .320 or .220 next year?
Bay fell off big-time. No supporting cast.
Sizemore hasn't come close to his #'s
Suzuki in his best years, but not today
Dye career year at age 32; hasn't done much before.

This puts him at 23 on your list, a late 2nd rounder in most leagues. (I don't know many people who play in 10-team leagues). He was ranked #9 overall in Yahoo's ranking...34/114 doesn't tell the whole story. There's also 119 runs, 10 sb's, and a .326 avg, which you can expect to repeat. And he's getting better. So again, not a first rounder, but he'll be gone before the fourth, and if you wait til the sixth you're gonna end up with Adam Dunn hitting .250.



Adam Dunn is not going anywhere near the 6th. He will be lucky to stay in the 8th or 9th. And there are probably more 10 team league than 12. Yahoo plays 12 as the standard. CBS plays 10 as do a number of other top providers for their free leagues.

As to Holliday, he and Atkins were $3 apart in 5x5 Roto. I take nothing away from Holliday, but he is not going to avg in the top 30 imo unless some fantay guru does a major hype job on him pre-season. SS is a lot thinner than the OF and Jeter is going to be coming off an MVP year. Morneau is everyone's overhyped greatest thing since sliced bread. Dye will be coming off a 40 HR season. People talk about Sizemore in comparison to Crawford. Suzuki always goes high and may be one of the most overrated fantasy guys around...still is going to be picked high.

Whether you agree with those accessments or not, they are around and someone in your league is going to believe them and pick accordingly. Maybe there will be Holliday hype owners too, but barring that, I think name alone is going to carry 30 someodd players to go before Holliday.


I think we're having a bit of miscommunication due to your odd 10-team rounds. I know you think most people play ten-team leagues (probably due to egocentrism) but if you didn't notice, when I asked for everyone's first round in this thread, no one told me their top ten players. A twelve-team standard is fairly common knowledge. The magazines use it, radio shows use it, and everyone on this thread seems to be but you. And sorry about the Adam Dunn thing...it was the first name that came to mind. Let's say a Chipper Jones-type player goes in the 6th...a guy with 30 less rbi and runs, and 50 points lower BA.
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Postby Geek » Fri Oct 06, 2006 12:29 pm

stumpak wrote:I would love to play in a league where Tejada goes 8 spots ahead of Reyes, as some of these rankings have suggested.

Let's compare the two in a roto format

R: +20 to Reyes
RBI: +30 to Tejada
HR: +10 to Tejada
SB: +65 (at least) to Reyes
BA: Even

So which would you rather have, 65 SB and 20 R or 30 RBI and 10 HR? This is not even close, even if you discount Reyes a little bit due to the fact that Tejada is an iron man and he is not.

I also find it interesting how those who are down on Reyes, in this and other threads, can offer no more of a rationale than injuries from 2 years ago and "gut feelings".

Not to mention the strategic advantage that Reyes yields: if you own him, you do not have to worry about rolling the dice on questionable guys in the later rounds to stay competitive in SBs.


And Reyes provides those numbers at the SS position. That means that you don't have to look at SB's when drafting OF's.
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Postby Simulacrum » Fri Oct 06, 2006 1:51 pm

stumpak wrote:I would love to play in a league where Tejada goes 8 spots ahead of Reyes, as some of these rankings have suggested.

Let's compare the two in a roto format

R: +20 to Reyes
RBI: +30 to Tejada
HR: +10 to Tejada
SB: +65 (at least) to Reyes
BA: Even

So which would you rather have, 65 SB and 20 R or 30 RBI and 10 HR? This is not even close, even if you discount Reyes a little bit due to the fact that Tejada is an iron man and he is not.

I also find it interesting how those who are down on Reyes, in this and other threads, can offer no more of a rationale than injuries from 2 years ago and "gut feelings".

Not to mention the strategic advantage that Reyes yields: if you own him, you do not have to worry about rolling the dice on questionable guys in the later rounds to stay competitive in SBs.


True, but stolen bases are more fickle than the hitting cats.. if Reyes were to tweak or injure anything from the waist down his value would drop like a stone, along with the sb's.
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Postby TheYanks04 » Fri Oct 06, 2006 2:42 pm

Simulacrum wrote:
stumpak wrote:I would love to play in a league where Tejada goes 8 spots ahead of Reyes, as some of these rankings have suggested.

Let's compare the two in a roto format

R: +20 to Reyes
RBI: +30 to Tejada
HR: +10 to Tejada
SB: +65 (at least) to Reyes
BA: Even

So which would you rather have, 65 SB and 20 R or 30 RBI and 10 HR? This is not even close, even if you discount Reyes a little bit due to the fact that Tejada is an iron man and he is not.

I also find it interesting how those who are down on Reyes, in this and other threads, can offer no more of a rationale than injuries from 2 years ago and "gut feelings".

Not to mention the strategic advantage that Reyes yields: if you own him, you do not have to worry about rolling the dice on questionable guys in the later rounds to stay competitive in SBs.


True, but stolen bases are more fickle than the hitting cats.. if Reyes were to tweak or injure anything from the waist down his value would drop like a stone, along with the sb's.



You can say that about any speed guy including Crawford, Rollins, etc. If a power hitter gets an oblique or wrist injury, he pretty much loses a great deal of value too. Speed guys are indeed more risky in that respect, but not by a lot. The risk is more a factor of the individual player not the proportionment of the stats across the 5x5 Roto category. Dave Roberts and NJ are always getting hurt for instance.
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