pokerplaya wrote:Maybe I'm just asking for trouble, but I think Santana is borderline top 5. He's just THAT much better than his peers.
I'd take him in the 4-5 area of a draft. Right after Pujols, Arod, Soriano and maybe Howard.
I've been calling Santana top 3 for a couple years now. I didn't receive too much gruff for it either. Next year Santana is #2 for me.
I'm aboard the "Santana Love-boat" myself. If he's still around by the 5th pick I'll grab him for sure.
Not sure if I'd take him before A-Rod or Ortiz though. That'd be tough.
Not that I disagree with you (although I wouldn't take him tope 3), but the argument against grabbing a starter that early is that it's much easier to grab decent pitching off the waiver wire than to find good hitting. Many people employ a "pitch & ditch" strategy, keying in on positive matchups. The other thing is (and this doesn't apply to Santana, which makes him that much more valuable) that pitchers are more likely to be injured, and more likely to go from good to bad in a hurry. That said, Santana seems to be invincible, and while I might not do it, I can easily see him going in the early first round.
It is precisely the lack of other first-round pitchers that gives Santana such value. I'll gladly draft him in the first every chance I get, as he gives such a headstart in 4 of the pitching catagories. Santana in your rotation is like having a Pujols that hits .360, 60, 140 and 140.
It would be really hard to pull the trigger on drafting Johan #2, but I have him in a keeper and wouldn't trade him for anyone but Pujols.
It isn't just that he is THAT much better than any other pitcher (he is). It's that he hasn't had even a hint of injury issues in his career. He throws heat without straining, and he relies on the best changeup in baseball. Stay away from curve ball pitchers.
Also, Utley isn't going to make it out of many first rounds. He almost justifies the pick if you aren't worried about "position scarcity." And there is always someone in a draft worried about position scarcity.
Oh, and my top three keepers (Johan, M-Cab, Utley) are going to make everyone drool next year.
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Has anyone else noticed that pretty much any decent player with multiple eligibility at 2B is going to lose it, with the exception being Figgins? With how many people are losing 2B, I don't see how Utley isn't a 1st rounder.