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Dave Bush

Postby Pogotheostrich » Mon Oct 02, 2006 11:59 am

Looking at the end of year stats and something caught my eye.

Dave Bush 2006 WHIP - 1.14
So why is the ERA 4.41? His numbers across the board don't look too bad. 7.11 K/9, 4.37 K/BB, 1.44 G/F, .421 OPP SLG%.
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Postby acsguitar » Mon Oct 02, 2006 12:02 pm

He lets up bombs
I'm too lazy to make a sig at the moment
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Postby Pogotheostrich » Mon Oct 02, 2006 12:41 pm

acsguitar wrote:He lets up bombs
Arroyo and Chris Young both gave up HR at a higher rate while allowing runners on base at about the same rate and their ERA's are much lower.
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Postby Yoda » Mon Oct 02, 2006 12:56 pm

He was a bit unlucky. I'd need to check his strand rate but I am assuming it is a lot lower than the average which I believe is 70%

Sheets had a similar problem this year...
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Postby Yoda » Mon Oct 02, 2006 1:55 pm

Just did some quick calculations and based on Bush's strand rate being league average, his ERA would have been around 4.19 which is pretty close to what his WHIP would support...

He is a pretty good pitcher to target in 07.
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Postby brewcrew4you » Mon Oct 02, 2006 4:28 pm

This was written by Rich Lederer on the 12th of September
http://baseballanalysts.com/archives/2006/09/index.php

In the best performance of his career, Dave Bush threw a complete-game, five-hit shutout against the Houston Astros on Sunday. In the process, the Milwaukee right-hander whiffed 10 without allowing a single walk. He faced a total of 31 batters, recording 23 of the 27 outs via Ks or groundballs.

Bush has now struck out 41 and walked only four in his last nine starts. After yielding 23 homers in his first 25 games, Bush hasn't given up a roundtripper in his last four. During this period, the 26-year-old with a plus curve has induced 45 GB and 19 FB while striking out 6.32 batters per 100 pitches - a rate that would place him second in the N.L. over a full season.

For the year, Bush is tied for third in the league in WHIP (1.16). Importantly, the man with the pinpoint control has lowered his BB/9 (from 1.91 to 1.70) and HR/9 (1.32 to 1.09) and raised his K/9 (4.95 to 7.27) by nearly 50% from one season to the next. His Defense Independent Pitching (3.88) and Fielding Independent Pitching (3.85) are considerably better than his ERA (4.44). In fact, his DIPS and FIP rank 11th and 13th, respectively, while the difference between his FIP and ERA is the fourth highest in the league.

The three-year veteran is one of the most efficient pitchers in baseball. He has averaged just 14.5 pitches per inning, the fifth-lowest total in the majors. The top four? Greg Maddux, Roy Halladay, Chien-Ming Wang, and Brandon Webb.

Bush is arguably more like Chris Carpenter than not. They have two of the best Uncle Charlies in the game. Furthermore, these hurlers have similar K and BB rates. The main difference is that last year's Cy Young Award winner does an even better job of keeping the ball on the ground and in the ballpark. Nonetheless, Bush is more advanced than Carpenter at the same age. The latter didn't break out until his first year with the Cardinals when he was 29. Putting Bush in Carpenter's class may be a bit premature, but I believe it captures the younger hurler's upside. Based on his improved command and results of late, it wouldn't surprise me if Bush made a big push in narrowing whatever gap there exists within the next year.

A bird in the hand may be worth two in the bush. But a Bush in hand may be the best bet of 'em all.
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Postby Scooter1027 » Mon Oct 02, 2006 5:27 pm

I am very happy with the season Bush gave us. His ERA is also slightly elevated due to some stupid relief appearances that Yost had him toss when our pen was at its worst (Joe Winklesas? Allan Simpson?). He wasn't good out of the pen. His secondary numbers indicate that his ERA should have better, with poor luck, somewhat high HR rates, and a subpar defense around him being the reasons for the elevation. Overall, his 4.41/1.14 is quite solid, he struck out 166 to only 38 walks, and he ate up 210 innings for a staff that suffered numerous injuries (Sheets, Ohka twice, Helling, etc). Overall, another great trade for Melvin:

Dave Bush 4.41/1.14 in 210 IP
Gabe Gross .274/.382/.476 for an .857 OPS, .908 against RHP
Zack Jackson 4.12/1.40 in 107 IP in AAA (somewhat disappointing, but still young)

for

Lyle Overbay .312/.372/.508 with 22 HR
(Prince Fielder .271/.347/.483 with 28 HR as his replacement)

Overbay, one of my favorite non-Brewers, had a very nice campaign and continued his development. However, 22 year old Fielder was not a big dropoff, Bush looks like a big breakout candidate next year in his 2nd go round in the senior circuit, and Gross is a definite keeper for next year's OF.
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Postby thedude » Mon Oct 02, 2006 6:11 pm

Seems like bush could work for someone trying the LIMA plan in 2007.
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Postby stumpak » Tue Oct 03, 2006 1:47 pm

I am very high on Bush for next year. If you strip out the two times that he made relief appearences between starts and got bombed, he is all the more impessive. Some hype will build around him over the off season as one of the top SP "sleepers", but he will probably still be good value on draft/auction day.
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