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howard and the triple crown?

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Postby Mugrila » Mon Oct 02, 2006 1:16 am

Ender wrote:I think howard has his career year this season, so personally I think his chances are next to none. I would look at his mid season numbers as his normal numbers, .280ish AVG, 9-10 HR's a month. That is still premier numbers but don't let that huge hot streak cloud your vision, he will not play like this every year.


His first full season is his "career year"? :-? Interesting take to say the least.
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Postby RAmst23 » Mon Oct 02, 2006 1:17 am

This topic has been addressed before, and Pujols is the popular answer as to who can win the Triple Crown. BA is the hardest category to win IMO, as random guys step up and hit .350 (Howdy Freddy Sanchez).

Pujols is a fantastic hitter and has a career BA of .330, but I'm not sure if he'll ever do it. I don't see Howard having a chance to do it.
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Postby Ender » Mon Oct 02, 2006 8:19 am

Mugrila wrote:
Ender wrote:I think howard has his career year this season, so personally I think his chances are next to none. I would look at his mid season numbers as his normal numbers, .280ish AVG, 9-10 HR's a month. That is still premier numbers but don't let that huge hot streak cloud your vision, he will not play like this every year.


His first full season is his "career year"? :-? Interesting take to say the least.


He wouldn't be anywhere near the first person in baseball to have that happen. I don't think howard will have a year better than .313, 58 HR, 149 RBI. Considering how rare it is for ANY player in baseball to put up those numbers its not a huge stretch at all, especially considering he's going to be 28 next year, he's not a young first full year player.
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Postby J35J » Mon Oct 02, 2006 9:30 am

Ender wrote:
Mugrila wrote:
Ender wrote:I think howard has his career year this season, so personally I think his chances are next to none. I would look at his mid season numbers as his normal numbers, .280ish AVG, 9-10 HR's a month. That is still premier numbers but don't let that huge hot streak cloud your vision, he will not play like this every year.


His first full season is his "career year"? :-? Interesting take to say the least.


He wouldn't be anywhere near the first person in baseball to have that happen. I don't think howard will have a year better than .313, 58 HR, 149 RBI. Considering how rare it is for ANY player in baseball to put up those numbers its not a huge stretch at all, especially considering he's going to be 28 next year, he's not a young first full year player.


I agree 100% with Ender!


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Postby Mugrila » Mon Oct 02, 2006 10:20 am

Ender wrote:
Mugrila wrote:
Ender wrote:I think howard has his career year this season, so personally I think his chances are next to none. I would look at his mid season numbers as his normal numbers, .280ish AVG, 9-10 HR's a month. That is still premier numbers but don't let that huge hot streak cloud your vision, he will not play like this every year.


His first full season is his "career year"? :-? Interesting take to say the least.


He wouldn't be anywhere near the first person in baseball to have that happen. I don't think howard will have a year better than .313, 58 HR, 149 RBI. Considering how rare it is for ANY player in baseball to put up those numbers its not a huge stretch at all, especially considering he's going to be 28 next year, he's not a young first full year player.


Sorry, that came across stronger than I intended. (Seahawks had me in a bad mood. :-[ ) I agree with you to an extent. A season like he had does not happen every year. (Well it did for a while with Bonds, Mac, and Sosa but those days are gone.) Howard has more power than anyone in the game. He didn't have one hot streak, rather two months, May and August, where he hit 13 and 14 respectively. I think he has the ability to improve on those numbers in the future, but it is far from a sure thing.
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Postby Krunk City King$ » Mon Oct 02, 2006 10:39 am

Mugrila wrote:
Ender wrote:I think howard has his career year this season, so personally I think his chances are next to none. I would look at his mid season numbers as his normal numbers, .280ish AVG, 9-10 HR's a month. That is still premier numbers but don't let that huge hot streak cloud your vision, he will not play like this every year.


His first full season is his "career year"? :-? Interesting take to say the least.


yeah........"huge hot" streak? didn't he improve on hitting against lefties when compared to last season? and based on his accomplishments this season, it seems like he will continue to work on improving his ABs in the off season, knowing his work effort.

if the phillies add aramis to protect him, i think that he could have a better season next year and hopefully cut down on the Ks. but we will not know for sure until next season. how many other players had a FIRST SEASON in the majors as good as this one. now he gets to study video tape of pitchers that he did not do well against in the offseason...i say that he will be even better.
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Postby Ender » Mon Oct 02, 2006 4:49 pm

Krunk City King$ wrote:
Mugrila wrote:
Ender wrote:I think howard has his career year this season, so personally I think his chances are next to none. I would look at his mid season numbers as his normal numbers, .280ish AVG, 9-10 HR's a month. That is still premier numbers but don't let that huge hot streak cloud your vision, he will not play like this every year.


His first full season is his "career year"? :-? Interesting take to say the least.


yeah........"huge hot" streak? didn't he improve on hitting against lefties when compared to last season? and based on his accomplishments this season, it seems like he will continue to work on improving his ABs in the off season, knowing his work effort.

if the phillies add aramis to protect him, i think that he could have a better season next year and hopefully cut down on the Ks. but we will not know for sure until next season. how many other players had a FIRST SEASON in the majors as good as this one. now he gets to study video tape of pitchers that he did not do well against in the offseason...i say that he will be even better.


yes he had a huge hot streak. Look at his last 2 months.
.348 AVG with a 1.214 OPS and .387 AVG with a 1.324 OPS. Now you can look at that two ways. One you can say he's the best hitter in baseball and assume next year he'll improve on this years numbers or you can look at it as a hot streak since those numbers are so much better than his previous 6 months and assume he's going to regress back down to a much more normal 1.000 OPS.

I'm not saying Howard is a fluke or he's going to stink next year or anything like that. I just don't believe he's going to have a run like that every year, I think the rest of his season looks pretty reasonable for his baseline. The rest of his season has him hitting around .280-.290 with 45-50 HR's on the season. I think thats a much more reasonable projection and it still has him in the 1st round next year right around Ortiz(who would be a better pick imo though with his health issues he might slip down below Howard) which is pretty elite company.
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Postby Yoda » Mon Oct 02, 2006 5:11 pm

Ender wrote:
Krunk City King$ wrote:
Mugrila wrote:
Ender wrote:I think howard has his career year this season, so personally I think his chances are next to none. I would look at his mid season numbers as his normal numbers, .280ish AVG, 9-10 HR's a month. That is still premier numbers but don't let that huge hot streak cloud your vision, he will not play like this every year.


His first full season is his "career year"? :-? Interesting take to say the least.


yeah........"huge hot" streak? didn't he improve on hitting against lefties when compared to last season? and based on his accomplishments this season, it seems like he will continue to work on improving his ABs in the off season, knowing his work effort.

if the phillies add aramis to protect him, i think that he could have a better season next year and hopefully cut down on the Ks. but we will not know for sure until next season. how many other players had a FIRST SEASON in the majors as good as this one. now he gets to study video tape of pitchers that he did not do well against in the offseason...i say that he will be even better.


yes he had a huge hot streak. Look at his last 2 months.
.348 AVG with a 1.214 OPS and .387 AVG with a 1.324 OPS. Now you can look at that two ways. One you can say he's the best hitter in baseball and assume next year he'll improve on this years numbers or you can look at it as a hot streak since those numbers are so much better than his previous 6 months and assume he's going to regress back down to a much more normal 1.000 OPS.

I'm not saying Howard is a fluke or he's going to stink next year or anything like that. I just don't believe he's going to have a run like that every year, I think the rest of his season looks pretty reasonable for his baseline. The rest of his season has him hitting around .280-.290 with 45-50 HR's on the season. I think thats a much more reasonable projection and it still has him in the 1st round next year right around Ortiz(who would be a better pick imo though with his health issues he might slip down below Howard) which is pretty elite company.


Howard is probably the safest bet to hit 45+ every season.
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Postby Yoda » Mon Oct 02, 2006 5:11 pm

Ender wrote:
Krunk City King$ wrote:
Mugrila wrote:
Ender wrote:I think howard has his career year this season, so personally I think his chances are next to none. I would look at his mid season numbers as his normal numbers, .280ish AVG, 9-10 HR's a month. That is still premier numbers but don't let that huge hot streak cloud your vision, he will not play like this every year.


His first full season is his "career year"? :-? Interesting take to say the least.


yeah........"huge hot" streak? didn't he improve on hitting against lefties when compared to last season? and based on his accomplishments this season, it seems like he will continue to work on improving his ABs in the off season, knowing his work effort.

if the phillies add aramis to protect him, i think that he could have a better season next year and hopefully cut down on the Ks. but we will not know for sure until next season. how many other players had a FIRST SEASON in the majors as good as this one. now he gets to study video tape of pitchers that he did not do well against in the offseason...i say that he will be even better.


yes he had a huge hot streak. Look at his last 2 months.
.348 AVG with a 1.214 OPS and .387 AVG with a 1.324 OPS. Now you can look at that two ways. One you can say he's the best hitter in baseball and assume next year he'll improve on this years numbers or you can look at it as a hot streak since those numbers are so much better than his previous 6 months and assume he's going to regress back down to a much more normal 1.000 OPS.

I'm not saying Howard is a fluke or he's going to stink next year or anything like that. I just don't believe he's going to have a run like that every year, I think the rest of his season looks pretty reasonable for his baseline. The rest of his season has him hitting around .280-.290 with 45-50 HR's on the season. I think thats a much more reasonable projection and it still has him in the 1st round next year right around Ortiz(who would be a better pick imo though with his health issues he might slip down below Howard) which is pretty elite company.


Howard is probably the safest bet to hit 45+ every season.
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