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How much do Major League numbers play in?

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How much do Major League numbers play in?

Postby Niffoc4 » Wed Sep 20, 2006 1:47 am

While considering prospect keepers, one of the problems I have been having is what to take into account more. On the one hand, prospects who get to the majors tend to have a large amount of minor league at-bats, so I think that those numbers should be taken into account. Then, one can take into account prospect pundits (be it Goldstein or Callis or Sickels or whoever). Then there are the major league numbers. How much do those play in? I know the sample-size is much smaller than the minor league numbers, and that players do need adjustment time, but some of the major league numbers of prospects scare me.
Guys like Andy Marte, Tulowitzki, Iannetta, and even to an extent Carlos Quentin have not hit in the majors like their minor league numbers (and position in prospect rankings) would suggest that they can. How much does this play in?
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Postby shortsavage » Wed Sep 20, 2006 4:17 am

I usually wait out for about 200 major league at bats or 50 innings unless the player's numbers are similar in the minors and majors.

You really have to do this on a case-to-case basis, though.
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Postby Cleveland Steamers » Wed Sep 20, 2006 8:41 pm

Agree with the above post. Tulo has had about 60 Abs which isnt enough to make a judgement. He will probably take a little longer to adjust to the MLB pitching. Carlos Quentin isnt doing badly. He has an average that's lower than what he'd like but he is hitting for some pop and has been giving a starting job in 2007. I'd say that he is impressing the right people if he is already been given the starting nod.
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Postby Niffoc4 » Wed Sep 20, 2006 9:21 pm

200 ABs seems good, but if you don't have that number of ABs what do you do? Do you just ignore the major league numbers? Some players can't make the jump to major league pitching, and some can...
Also, what about people like Adam Lind? He has really hit since his callup, does this move him up your cheatsheets for next year?
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Postby shortsavage » Thu Sep 21, 2006 1:03 am

Niffoc4 wrote:200 ABs seems good, but if you don't have that number of ABs what do you do? Do you just ignore the major league numbers? Some players can't make the jump to major league pitching, and some can...
Also, what about people like Adam Lind? He has really hit since his callup, does this move him up your cheatsheets for next year?


Just weight the minor league data most heavily if you haven't approached a solid major league sample. If you have a small sample but you believe it is telling, you can use it...just don't give it too much weight - see Babe Shelton.
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Postby PlayingWithFire » Thu Sep 21, 2006 6:52 am

guys like Garko is the opposite example of Marte. Can't hit anything in the minors for 2-3 months and just rakes once he got the call.
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Postby Niffoc4 » Thu Sep 21, 2006 7:22 pm

PlayingWithFire wrote:guys like Garko is the opposite example of Marte. Can't hit anything in the minors for 2-3 months and just rakes once he got the call.

Yeah, Chris Duncan is another one... it is so hard not to weight that good news... but I think duncan will go higher than I want him to.. and maybe Garko too
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