Havok1517 wrote:I don't think Boston is in the top 5 of possible destinations for Daisuke Matsuzaka. Matsuzaka is obviously cream of the crop and will more than likely go to a team with decent sized Japanese community. Boston already has some ties and communication with Ishii makes Boston the likely destination for him imo.
Leaders for Matsuzaka
1. Mariners (I really think they have the most to offer him, they have the legendary Ichiro, money to spend, and need pitching the most) 2. Yankees (have the most money, Matsui, and a good sized japapese community)
3. Dodgers (large Japanese community, money, but might spend money elsewhere) 4. Mets (same as Yankees, Glavine and Trachsel both possibly leaaving, but I think they sign Zito instead with the Peterson factor) 5. Angels (large Asian comminity but their stadd looks decent already) 6. Boston (Schilling and Wakefield are old but have some young guns, I think they lose out and fix their biggest weakness, their bullpen)
I don't really understand the connection. With posting, the community doesn't matter, communications don't matter, the only thing that matters is who submits the highest bid. And you can't wait for one team to give their bid and then beat it. You put your bid in an envelope and then all bets are off. Once you win the bid, you then have the ability to negotiate the contract with the player.
So *if* said player states that he only will play for one team or another, then I guess the player could "decide" where he wants to play, but that really ties the hands of the Japanese team and would lead me to believe they would not post him.
So there's a lot of stuff going on, and I don't really make a connection with the community and things of that nature.
Just my two cents.
Well, after the posting they essentially become a FA to that team and see what they have to offer including money, but other things as well. I've heard a few times that if HMatsui wasn't going to the Yankees he wouldn't have come over to the US, for what thats worth. I think Japanese managment care about their players and want to put them in an environment to succeed and show that Japan does in fact have great baseball. Also, I think the community can play a big deal in the happiness of the player. Recent examples being Javier Vasquez & Jeff Weaver weren't a good fit for New York and Edgar Renteria wasn't a good fit for the Red Sox. I believe Seattle has the largest Japanese population in the US. They already have 3 Japanese players on the team so the language difference would be lessened. With Johjima catching they already have an edge.
I agree with you that the Mariners make the most sense, for the reasons you've stated above.
The question is, does the Japanese team have to take the highest bid? I believe that they do, but I could be mistaken. I mean if someone offers a ton (say the M's offer $15M, the Yanks offer $20M, and the Red Sox offer $25M), does the Japanese team have the ability to offer him to the M's? Or are the required to give the Red Sox (and only the Red Sox) the opportunity to sign him to a contract? Obviously the Japanese teams would rather have him go the M's (if that's where he wants to go) in this hypothetical and get $15M then have him not go anywhere and get nothing.
Like I said, I don't disagree with anything you've said, just that there's this whole process that may (or may not) get in the way of what everyone wants to see happen.
I'm not exactly sure about this but I believe its all kept private and confidential so theoretically they can choose whichever team they want that posts. I may be wrong and if something has some more info on the process of posting I'd like to look at it.
The Japanese team HAS to except the highest bid or no bid at all. The posting goes through the commissioners office. All the teams submit their secret bids to the commish, who then informs the Japanese team of what the highest bid is, and the team that made the bid.
cordscords wrote:Probably where Smoltz was going when he returned to the rotation.
I would stay away from Papelbon as a starter. I know he was dominant as a closer but starting is a whole new ball game especially for someone as inexperienced as Papelbon.
I agree. When pitchers who are as talented as Randy Johnson and Josh Beckett fail to even be decent fantasy starters, I am steering clear of any question marks who happen to start in the AL east. Let someone else take the gamble on him.
Randy Johnson is just old now. I don't think that's a fair comparison at all. I'd definately take Papelbon if he's there in round 10. Obviously a spot start here or there isn't that great of an indicator, but for what it's worth he did do good when he started last year. He also pitched good in the playoffs and this year as a closer, showing he can handle pressure situations. 30 BB over 100 career IP isn't bad either, and his career BAA is .199. I definately see him with some great success in his future as a starter.
In no way, shape, or form, IMO, can you connect being a successful closer to being a successful starter. Has it been done before? Sure. But, in my opinion, you cannot say something like, this guy has been a lights out closer for 100 innings, so that will translate to him having 'great success in his future as a starter.' It just doesn't work that way. I know Papelbon's supposed to be a starter, etc. etc. but I'm still not buying his ability to get through an entire lineup 3 times on a regular basis with a quality outing until I see him do it a few times. There's literally been hundreds of incredible closers who would be just wretched starters -- that's the reason they were closers and not starters! Shouldering 250 innings cannot be compared to 70, over the course of a season. Now, on the contrary, I think that 95% of dominant starters would be dominant closers, and probably about 75% of above average starters would be in the upper echelon of closers. If you have a 3.99 ERA facing a lineup 3 times consecutively, where they get the chance to see all your stuff, and adjust as they face you again, well then I fully expect you to be able to face 3 - 5 batters and keep an ERA around 2 and have success if given the opportunity.
Bottom line, closers are super overrated -- and there's nothing in my mind, that can possibly link being an effective closer translating into being an effective starter. It's the other way around, where the argument can be made.
There are exceptions. Lowe, for example, has been more constistant as a starter than as a closer.
To be a closer you must have one amazing out pitch (be it changeup, sinker, cutter, or fastball). You also have to have the ability to handle the pressure of knowing any mistake and you are the goat of the media and fans. Starters face a lot of pressure, but they know any mistake they make can be made up for by the offense later in the game.
Paplebon also has experience as a starter and was very succesful in the minors in that role and during his first few starts as a major leaguer.
"Lefthanded reliever Hirotoshi Ishii will not be available to MLB this offseason since he is going to have major shoulder surgery in early October. It is unlikely that he will be ready to pitch until sometime after Opening Day, 2007. He won't be able to begin throwing again until January. "