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Guys who may be over-valued next year

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Postby JustAnotherYanksFan » Tue Oct 10, 2006 3:30 pm

Yoda wrote:
JustAnotherYanksFan wrote:
Yoda wrote:
JustAnotherYanksFan wrote:
Yoda wrote:
JustAnotherYanksFan wrote:
Lance Berkman - I'd say this was probably a career year for him. Also, that lineup just isn't very good, and if he hit 35 HR instead of 45 then it woudn't be hard to see him with something like 85 R and 110 RBI. Those are still good numbers, don't get me wrong, but if Berkman is going in the second round (as I expect he will) then that's too high for me.


It is really funny how Berkman STILL gets no respect. All he does is put up great numbers across the board year in and year out. Yet he is on top of people's overrated lists. I just do not get it.


Really? I don't think I've ever seen anyone else call him overrated, and I don't think of him that way in general. It's more that I think he had a career year this year and so he'll be going a round or two too early. If I could get him in the late third or later, I'd still take him for sure, it's just that I'm guessing he'll go higher than that because people will overpay for a career year. (And for the record I would take Berkman well before Dunn.)


Trust me. I've seen many Berkman overrated posts over the years and reply to every single one of them. ;-)


Well for what it's worth I thought Berkman was a great guy to target last year, so I don't have anything against the guy in general, just this year I guess.


So a 31 yo hitter who qualifies at OF, 1B and averages 105 R, 34 HR, 115 RBI, 7 SB, .304 BA, .983 OPS per year since 2000 and is always available in the second round and beyond is overrated in your estimation?


Well, yeah. I don't think he's vastly overrated but I think it's important to keep in mind that those career averages mostly came at a time when the Astros' lineup was above average. Now it's one of the worst in the league. That didn't matter last year because Berkman was so ridiculous, but if he returns to his career averages of .304, 34 HR and a .983 OPS then I don't think he'll be worth taking in the second round because the lineup will take a toll on the R/RBI.

I'm not saying that taking Berkman in the 2nd round is a terrible pick and will destroy any chances you have of winning your league. It's just that I think he's slightly overrated and I wouldn't take him until more like the late third.

Now that I'm thinking about that, maybe I should modify what I said. I think Berkman will put up good numbers but will perform below what people might be expecting of him. However, until I start doing rankings I can't really say for sure how early I'd take him, especially since every year I seem to be unable to find enough players that I consider worthy of being taken in the second round. So I'll just say that I think Berkman will put up something around .300-35-85-100. The more I think about it, the more I'd say it's unfair to call him overrated just because he's consistent and there's no way he busts completely. But I just think he might underperform expectations because the effects of the lineup on the R/RBI will really start to become apparent if he returns to his career norms in team-independent stats.
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Postby roninmedia » Tue Oct 10, 2006 3:40 pm

The rookie pitching studs of 2006 will be overvalued.
Soriano. Out of the stratosphere career year for him.
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Postby mikekim2121 » Tue Oct 10, 2006 3:43 pm

I guarantee Howard is going to be a top 5 pick next year in 99% of leagues. That's why I won't be taking him.
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Postby Yoda » Tue Oct 10, 2006 3:47 pm

JustAnotherYanksFan wrote:
Yoda wrote:
JustAnotherYanksFan wrote:
Yoda wrote:
JustAnotherYanksFan wrote:
Yoda wrote:
JustAnotherYanksFan wrote:
Lance Berkman - I'd say this was probably a career year for him. Also, that lineup just isn't very good, and if he hit 35 HR instead of 45 then it woudn't be hard to see him with something like 85 R and 110 RBI. Those are still good numbers, don't get me wrong, but if Berkman is going in the second round (as I expect he will) then that's too high for me.


It is really funny how Berkman STILL gets no respect. All he does is put up great numbers across the board year in and year out. Yet he is on top of people's overrated lists. I just do not get it.


Really? I don't think I've ever seen anyone else call him overrated, and I don't think of him that way in general. It's more that I think he had a career year this year and so he'll be going a round or two too early. If I could get him in the late third or later, I'd still take him for sure, it's just that I'm guessing he'll go higher than that because people will overpay for a career year. (And for the record I would take Berkman well before Dunn.)


Trust me. I've seen many Berkman overrated posts over the years and reply to every single one of them. ;-)


Well for what it's worth I thought Berkman was a great guy to target last year, so I don't have anything against the guy in general, just this year I guess.


So a 31 yo hitter who qualifies at OF, 1B and averages 105 R, 34 HR, 115 RBI, 7 SB, .304 BA, .983 OPS per year since 2000 and is always available in the second round and beyond is overrated in your estimation?


Well, yeah. I don't think he's vastly overrated but I think it's important to keep in mind that those career averages mostly came at a time when the Astros' lineup was above average. Now it's one of the worst in the league. That didn't matter last year because Berkman was so ridiculous, but if he returns to his career averages of .304, 34 HR and a .983 OPS then I don't think he'll be worth taking in the second round because the lineup will take a toll on the R/RBI.

I'm not saying that taking Berkman in the 2nd round is a terrible pick and will destroy any chances you have of winning your league. It's just that I think he's slightly overrated and I wouldn't take him until more like the late third.

Now that I'm thinking about that, maybe I should modify what I said. I think Berkman will put up good numbers but will perform below what people might be expecting of him. However, until I start doing rankings I can't really say for sure how early I'd take him, especially since every year I seem to be unable to find enough players that I consider worthy of being taken in the second round. So I'll just say that I think Berkman will put up something around .300-35-85-100. The more I think about it, the more I'd say it's unfair to call him overrated just because he's consistent and there's no way he busts completely. But I just think he might underperform expectations because the effects of the lineup on the R/RBI will really start to become apparent if he returns to his career norms in team-independent stats.


The level of consistency he brings is worth a lot more than most people think. He is not as sexy as guys like Beltran, Morneau or Teixeira but his floor is so ridiculously low that you won't be disappointed at the end.
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Postby Big Pimpin » Tue Oct 10, 2006 7:38 pm

I love Berkman. I pulled a trade this year in one of my drafts where I ended up with the first two picks in the third round. I used one of them on Lance (I actually had him #20 on my board, so I would have taken him earlier) and it was met with a mixture of shock and "interesting"... Needless to say, he was a great pick. I'd have no problems taking him in the second next year.
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Postby davidmarver » Tue Oct 10, 2006 8:52 pm

Victor Martinez is likely to be overrated (again) next season. I'd also throw Chien-Ming Wang and John Lackey in the likely-to-be-overvalued category.
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Postby raiders_umpire » Wed Oct 11, 2006 8:20 am

davidmarver wrote: I'd also throw Chien-Ming Wang and John Lackey in the likely-to-be-overvalued category.




I agree with Wang being valued high next year due to the amount of wins he had this year, but I don't know about Lackey since his wins and August fall pulled his numbers down for the year. I imagine Lackey will still be ranked near #20 as a starting pitcher.
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Postby BigLebowski » Thu Oct 12, 2006 12:07 am

Yoda wrote:
JustAnotherYanksFan wrote:
Lance Berkman - I'd say this was probably a career year for him. Also, that lineup just isn't very good, and if he hit 35 HR instead of 45 then it woudn't be hard to see him with something like 85 R and 110 RBI. Those are still good numbers, don't get me wrong, but if Berkman is going in the second round (as I expect he will) then that's too high for me.


It is really funny how Berkman STILL gets no respect. All he does is put up great numbers across the board year in and year out. Yet he is on top of people's overrated lists. I just do not get it.


I agree...I'm not done reading this thread, but how in anyone's god's name can he be considered overrated? The dude is a hick...and doesn't look like an athlete...but you don't have to, to be a baseball player. The guy can flat out rake. He has never, not raked. blah..blah..blah...I'm amazed at the number of people how don't respect the numbers he has put up. Even when the Astros "don't have anyone for him to drive in".
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Postby TheYanks04 » Thu Oct 12, 2006 12:15 am

Berkman is the man. A second round caliber player without a doubt.

Now you want overrated, the names are Suzuki, Derek Lee and eveyone's favorite deroided 1b Helton.
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Postby BigLebowski » Thu Oct 12, 2006 12:22 am

Well I haven't really thought about it yet, but here is my list of overrated players off the top of my head.

H. Matsui
Dye...as most people here seem to think as well.
B. Arroyo
J. Suppan
G. Maddux
J. Weaver..if he pitches well the rest of the post season.
J. Damon
B. Penny
D. Uggla
Izzy
Edmonds...as an Edmonds fan this kills me to put him here.
Mora
Mussina
Shaq
Atkins
The Big Hurt
Thome
Dave Roberts
Jason Hirsh
Brian Giles



That's the list I can come up with 5 silver bullets in.
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