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Guys who may be over-valued next year

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Postby CadensDad » Tue Oct 10, 2006 12:07 pm

HOWARD this kid wont even come close to his 06 numbers

Dye, Thomas, Holliday
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Postby Big Pimpin » Tue Oct 10, 2006 12:26 pm

CadensDad wrote:HOWARD this kid wont even come close to his 06 numbers

Dye, Thomas, Holliday


I'd agree with Howard, Dye, and Thomas, but I think Holliday is for real. He's certainly not a first or second rounder, but I could see taking him in the third or fourth and being very happy.
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Postby Cleveland Steamers » Tue Oct 10, 2006 12:33 pm

CadensDad wrote:HOWARD this kid wont even come close to his 06 numbers

Dye, Thomas, Holliday


What makes you or anyone else think that Howard wont come close to his 2006 numbers? The guy has gotten no respect year in and year out...always a fluke...no way he hits like that next year. Its been every year. First it was: he'll never hit more than like 30 HR in the MLB (after his 46 HR MiL season). Then it was stuff about his ROY season being a fluke. Im not saying everyone but there was a steady divide at the cafe about Howard. Many said that he K's too much and probably wouldnt hit better than .270 with 30-35 this year. He did a little bit better. I just dont understand why people arent giving him credit. I agree that he isnt a top 3 pick next year but youd be an idiot to let him slide past the middle of the first.

Holliday? If Jason Bay goes first round last year, Holliday is going to be a value pick in my eyes. No one seems to think much of his ability which may allow him to slide into the third round. I will gladly take Holliday in the third....maybe even late second round.

Also, you gotta love the "Utley is over valued posts." He is only the best fantasy 2B...by far. No one really is going to compare to him next year in fantasy production. He finished as the 13th rated fantasy player at thin position (not as thin as previous years). With Michael Cuddyer the second most productive this year and finishing at 74, Utley represents amazing production and a better pick than David Wright. If Utley is available at the back end of the first round, he is a solid pick up in my mind.

Overvalued in next years drafts:

Jason Bay. He is a great fantasy player but will probably be taken in the late first or early second in next year because people will still have him on their minds from 2006's drafts. Bay is a good fantasy OF but I see a guy like Holliday going later and putting up superior numbers.

I agree that Dye will be selected too early. Career year. I think Dye will be a great fit in early round 4. A great risk/reward pick sometime in the third. I watched a great deal of his games and he was locked in for most of the season. I dont know what he did, but he looked like a completely different player than previous years.

All Pitchers not named Johan. Pitchers are very very risky. It seems like 2-3 pitchers that are usually selected in the late 2nd-4th either go down with injuries or have terrible years. Ben Sheets, Peavy, Pedro, Prior, Harden, Halladay, etc are all past examples. Ive always succumbed to grabbing an ace in round 3 but Im going to change my ways. The risk seems too high...though I think Webb may be undervalued some next year (jjust a huntch).
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Postby Amazinz » Tue Oct 10, 2006 12:38 pm

I agree that Holliday is the real deal.

As far as Ryan Howard... What makes people think he won't come close to his '06 numbers? I don't see many reasons why he can't hit .300 and 45 HR.
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Postby Pogotheostrich » Tue Oct 10, 2006 12:54 pm

Cleveland Steamers wrote:Also, you gotta love the "Utley is over valued posts." He is only the best fantasy 2B...by far. No one really is going to compare to him next year in fantasy production. He finished as the 13th rated fantasy player at thin position (not as thin as previous years). With Michael Cuddyer the second most productive this year and finishing at 74, Utley represents amazing production and a better pick than David Wright. If Utley is available at the back end of the first round, he is a solid pick up in my mind.
Soriano?
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Postby Big Pimpin » Tue Oct 10, 2006 12:55 pm

Amazinz wrote:I agree that Holliday is the real deal.

As far as Ryan Howard... What makes people think he won't come close to his '06 numbers? I don't see many reasons why he can't hit .300 and 45 HR.


As far as Howard is concerned, I think he's good for sure. I just don't see him hitting .315 and challenging 60 HRs again. I would guess closer to .275-.290 with 45 HRs and 130 RBIs. Definitely great numbers, but I don't see him as being on par with Pujols, as many seem to.
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Postby Amazinz » Tue Oct 10, 2006 12:58 pm

Yeah I didn't mean to suggest I view him in Pujols territory. .290 and 45 HR sounds like a pretty good projection to me.
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Postby Cleveland Steamers » Tue Oct 10, 2006 1:00 pm

Pogotheostrich wrote:
Cleveland Steamers wrote:Also, you gotta love the "Utley is over valued posts." He is only the best fantasy 2B...by far. No one really is going to compare to him next year in fantasy production. He finished as the 13th rated fantasy player at thin position (not as thin as previous years). With Michael Cuddyer the second most productive this year and finishing at 74, Utley represents amazing production and a better pick than David Wright. If Utley is available at the back end of the first round, he is a solid pick up in my mind.
Soriano?


We're talking about next year and Soriano will not qualify at 2B. Obviously he was the best "2B" this year but never played at 2B.
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Postby Pogotheostrich » Tue Oct 10, 2006 1:02 pm

Cleveland Steamers wrote:
Pogotheostrich wrote:
Cleveland Steamers wrote:Also, you gotta love the "Utley is over valued posts." He is only the best fantasy 2B...by far. No one really is going to compare to him next year in fantasy production. He finished as the 13th rated fantasy player at thin position (not as thin as previous years). With Michael Cuddyer the second most productive this year and finishing at 74, Utley represents amazing production and a better pick than David Wright. If Utley is available at the back end of the first round, he is a solid pick up in my mind.
Soriano?


We're talking about next year and Soriano will not qualify at 2B. Obviously he was the best "2B" this year but never played at 2B.
I wouldn't discount him at 2B for next year. Chances are he still signs to play 2B and would be elligible shortly after the start of the season.
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Postby Cleveland Steamers » Tue Oct 10, 2006 1:10 pm

If he actually plays 2B, then he would be the top 2B with Utley not far behind. After those two, it drops significatly. I on the other hand dont see Soriano playing 2B...though if Washington doenst make a move to resign him, he may go to a team that allows him to move back to the infield. Im not counting on it though.
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