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Guys who may be over-valued next year

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Postby Hobbes » Tue Sep 19, 2006 8:22 pm

Philly Pride wrote:Jermaine Dye has got to be the candidate for this one. He's good, but this is far and beyond his best season. I can see him at .290/30/next year, but this is rediculous.

Yeah, I've got quite the dilemma with Dye. He is easily my best offensive player this year and I don't really have any other good offensive keeper candidates. I can't really keep 5 pitchers but I also believe he's in for a return to earth next year. But how can you throw a guy with those stats back into the FA pool?

It's gonna be a tough call.
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Postby bigken117 » Tue Sep 19, 2006 8:35 pm

Hobbes wrote:
Philly Pride wrote:Jermaine Dye has got to be the candidate for this one. He's good, but this is far and beyond his best season. I can see him at .290/30/next year, but this is rediculous.

Yeah, I've got quite the dilemma with Dye. He is easily my best offensive player this year and I don't really have any other good offensive keeper candidates. I can't really keep 5 pitchers but I also believe he's in for a return to earth next year. But how can you throw a guy with those stats back into the FA pool?

It's gonna be a tough call.


Sell high. Buy low on a guy like Tex perhaps?
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Postby teddy ballgame » Tue Sep 19, 2006 9:28 pm

I think some people will still try and grab VMart early, despite his suckiness.

CBV wrote:Eric Byrnes - '06 25hr/75rbi/24sb. he will not repeat this performance and wont warrant a roster spot either (maybe only in deep leagues) previous career high in sb's was 17 in '04.

At some point a guy's numbers are going to go up. Just because his previous career high was 17, doesn't mean he isn't capable of doing more now. He's getting into his prime. I think Byrnes is going to be a good pick next year.

I also agree with Wright. He puts up pretty good numbers across the board, but nothing outstanding. He's one of those great in real life and pretty good in fantasy guys imo. People like Zimmerman are suitable alternatives.
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Postby go_jays_go » Tue Sep 19, 2006 11:27 pm

Philly Pride wrote:Putz is for real, man, I don't know what you're talking about.


I don't know about that one. I just may not be a Putz believer. :-°
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Postby Havok1517 » Tue Sep 19, 2006 11:30 pm

go_jays_go wrote:
Philly Pride wrote:Putz is for real, man, I don't know what you're talking about.


I don't know about that one. I just may not be a Putz believer. :-°



I predict Putz and Otsuka as the biggest closer busts if both in fact close. I actually think Kerry Wood will close for the Rangers next year.
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Postby J35J » Wed Sep 20, 2006 5:01 pm

Didn't even see one post about Dan Uggla........ I'm surprised he isn't the second coming in most peoples eyes... :-b

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Postby RynMan » Wed Sep 20, 2006 7:12 pm

Scoots#5 wrote:will be as good as utley next year - so will rickie weeks.


What makes you think that?
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Postby JustAnotherYanksFan » Tue Oct 10, 2006 1:42 am

Now that the regular season has officially ended, I figured I'd resurrect this thread. Here are some guys I think will be over-valued (I might be repeating ones mentioned earlier, but there were also a couple weeks of regular season between then and now so opinions might have changed).

Lance Berkman - I'd say this was probably a career year for him. Also, that lineup just isn't very good, and if he hit 35 HR instead of 45 then it woudn't be hard to see him with something like 85 R and 110 RBI. Those are still good numbers, don't get me wrong, but if Berkman is going in the second round (as I expect he will) then that's too high for me.

Bronson Arroyo - I see the league catching up to him a little.

Mike Mussina - If you look at his career trends in recent years, it's hard to imagine he can repeat this year, improved changeup or no.

Derek Jeter - He's not going to bust, but it's also unlikely that he'll quite live up to his draft position considering how great a year he had this year.

Joe Mauer - It's hard to imagine that any player, let alone a catcher, can consistently hit .345+, which is where a lot of his value came from. Until I'm convinced that he's developing some power, I'm not spending a round 3/4 pick on him.

Carlos Beltran - Only because it's easy to just say "Oh, Beltran bounced back, he's good again" without seeing that he only had 18 steals. If he hits 40+ HR again, then fine, but I don't trust Beltran to be a 40-HR hitter, which means I want more than 18 SB before I'm willing to draft him in the first round (which is where I assume he'll generally go).

Justin Morneau - Depends where he ends up going in drafts, but if he's typically going in the 3rd round (which is what I'm guessing), then I'd rather have a more proven player (not to mention that I'm skeptical that he'll repeat the .321 BA and 130 RBI).

Jason Bay - I think he'll still go relatively early because of what he did two years ago, but I just don't see him stealing enough to make him that valuable; he's really just a 100-35-100 OF. I'd still take him around the 4th round but I doubt he slips that late.
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Postby Pogotheostrich » Tue Oct 10, 2006 8:30 am

Havok1517 wrote:
go_jays_go wrote:
Philly Pride wrote:Putz is for real, man, I don't know what you're talking about.


I don't know about that one. I just may not be a Putz believer. :-°



I predict Putz and Otsuka as the biggest closer busts if both in fact close. I actually think Kerry Wood will close for the Rangers next year.

That's a great idea. Take a consistant durable reliever and replace him with Kerry Wood.
Otsuka and Putz would both have to flame out or get hurt to the lose the job.
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Postby Pogotheostrich » Tue Oct 10, 2006 8:34 am

teddy ballgame wrote:I think some people will still try and grab VMart early, despite his suckiness.

You really have a problem with a catcher with this line:
82 R, 16 HR, 93 RBI, .316 BA, .391 OBP.
Some more HR would be nice but that's not bad. And with all the Mauer/McCann hype he might come cheaper than you think.
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