tinfoilxtouch wrote: Howard- Every season, some young 1b comes along and posts huge numbers. When you can get quality guys in round 5, I'm not taking anyone top-5 unless it's Ortiz or Pujols.
Yoda wrote:Well, to be fair, Wright is only 23. His power is definitely there and he should easily hit 30+ every year. Plus he was on pace to hit well over that this season before the HR Derby sapped his power for the rest of the year.
The homerun derby doesn't affect at hitters power, just look at howard and Ortiz.
The reason guys hit less homeruns after the derby is simple statisics. Players who are invited to the derby are having great homerun seasons, above where they normally preform so the homerun derby is naturally going to have players who are having career power years (or half years). Since these players are preforming above thier normal levels they will eventually regress to the mean. I think that is what you are seeing out of Wright right now. I think Wright has 30 homer potenial, but he has yet to prove it.
Yoda wrote:Well, to be fair, Wright is only 23. His power is definitely there and he should easily hit 30+ every year. Plus he was on pace to hit well over that this season before the HR Derby sapped his power for the rest of the year.
The homerun derby doesn't affect at hitters power, just look at howard and Ortiz.
The reason guys hit less homeruns after the derby is simple statisics. Players who are invited to the derby are having great homerun seasons, above where they normally preform so the homerun derby is naturally going to have players who are having career power years (or half years). Since these players are preforming above thier normal levels they will eventually regress to the mean. I think that is what you are seeing out of Wright right now. I think Wright has 30 homer potenial, but he has yet to prove it.
I've heard a lot of players complain about HR Derby and how it screws up your swing. It may be nothing but the kid was en fuego prior to the derby only to do a complete 180. Unless he is hiding an injury, he got too pull happy and swinging for the fences in the second half.
Also, he was consistently good in 05 so I have no idea what else could possibly affect him this way. His career numbers in the minors/majors show that he should easily hit 30+ for years to come.
"Think of how stupid the average person is, and realize half of them are stupider than that." ~George Carlin
Maybe the derby affects some players, but it certainly didn't affect Ortiz and Howard. I just can't imagine changing your swing for 20 batting practice swings in the middle of the season can dramatically affect a player for the course of the season. Heck, teams probably do the same thing during BP...
Wright is too young and talented to have his 4 HR second half be any more than an aberration. Hopefully for me his owners will tire of it and sell him to me cheap
Laean wrote:hooligan, i agree with all except david wright. even in a deep position, 100+ 30+ 110+ 15+ .300+ is worth first round. i mean, no one goes "well ortiz is good, but 1b is real deep, so i'll pass and draft utley" in the first round.
Um, Wright has never hit 30 homers, or scored 100 runs in a season yet, and unless he goes on a tear these next two weeks, won't this season.
Ortiz, on the other hand, has put up vastly superior numbers to Mr. Wright.
1. he had 99 runs in 2005, that counts as 100 in my book. just like when someone hits .299 avg i would just say he's a .300 hitter.
2. he's young, and had a down 2nd half this season. maybe i was too quick to say he's a lock for 30+ homers from now on starting next season, but he eventually will be.
Why? I don't know of anyone looking for him even remotely early.
over-valued = drafted earlier than where they should be drafted
I don't think anyone is really a believer in GMJ at this point. He probably won't be drafted too early. I'll be willing to take a late round risk on him.
Of course, where he gets drafted will depend largely on Yahoo's o-rank for him next season...as a lot of people use Yahoo's rankings as a guide on draft day. So, if he gets ranked high there, he'll be off the board way too early for me.
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by acsguitar » Mon Sep 18, 2006 11:58 am 
