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Guys who may be over-valued next year

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Postby JustAnotherYanksFan » Thu Oct 12, 2006 11:31 pm

TheYanks04 wrote:
JustAnotherYanksFan wrote:
cordscords wrote:
TheYanks04 wrote:
cordscords wrote:
TheYanks04 wrote:I like to here why a lot of people think Dye is the next Beltran implosion waiting to happen. Don't get it. He has had 2 good years in a row. Even if his numbers recedes a little, he is still worth quite a bit.


Career year at age 32, injury history (I think he's done with that though) send out some worry signals for a guy who looks to be a 2nd round pick.



I do not think he is second round material. I doubt any experienced owner with some insight is picking him that high in 07. Still, I definitely see him going in the top 5 rounds. From the talk here though, you would think the guy is going to implode. There are people in the Draft and Keeper forum recommending keeping Sabathia over Dye as an example. Just seems to be a lot of negativity wrt to Dye an I just do not quite understand it.

I expect some falloff from this years numbers, but he should still be a solid perfomer barring injury. Even if he hit 280 35/100, he would still be a pretty valuable OF, esp in 5 OF deep leages. And I do not see his numers falling much below that barring an injury of course. And his injury was that flukeish broken leg he suffered in the post-season a few years ago. It is not like he is Cliff Floyd or even Chipper Jones at this point with one nagging thing after another.

Dye just seems to be getting very little respect while a guy like Liriano for example, who is injured and unproven is overhyped imo. Guys like Hanley Ramirez who as a rookie had a great year, are considered top round picks. All with a limited track record to say the least. We saw something like this with AJ last season, but even there AJ is still regarded as a sure fire round 5 or better pick even though everyone was expecting some drop off from 2005.

If you expect Dye to go round 2 I see the point to a degree. I just can't imagine anyone is going to buy into that.


There is always that 1 guy who latches on to last years stats, that 1 guy who's known for drafting all the boom or bust canidates, and that 1 guy who's an idiot who relies on the big board that has him ranked at #19. Chances are he's gone in the 2nd/3rd.

I'd rather take a safe pick that early. If he does end up being available in the 5th, I'd take a hard look at him.


Yeah, somehow those kinds of players that 11 out of 12 managers know had a fluke year never end up being good picks. In my main league this year (14 team keeper) Jeff Kent was still on the board in the 7th and even though I didn't value him particularly highly I figured I HAD to take him there. In the 9th round I saw Pettitte sitting there and even though I didn't value him very highly I thought I had to take him there. Granted those are only two examples, so I don't know if it's fair to form a rule just from those two, but in my experience it just never really pays off to draft those guys (Beltre after '04, Loaiza after '03, Pettitte after '05, etc.) where 11 out of 12 people in the league just know that they're going to bust, even if you feel like you're getting a bargain because you're getting them at a lower draft spot than you should based on last year's stats.

Basically, I wouldn't want to be the guy in my league spending the third or fourth round pick on Dye next year.



I dunno. I think that your Kent analogy is just off the mark there. Kent when he played put up OK numbers. In the 7th I can think of worse gambles. He got hurt and missed some tiime. Them's the breaks.

Pettitte I probably agree with you on. However, one could argue that in the 9th round, Pettitte was a fairly good buy...it just did not work out. It is not like Carlos Zambrano was likely to be around in the 9th. Smoltz might have been and that is the guy that you should have taken if he was around then. I know I grabbed Smoltz in the 7-9th in a lot of leagues.


I took Smoltz in the 6th. Anyway, I was surprised to see Kent and Pettitte around that late, and I'm not saying taking them in those spots ruined my season or anything. Also you're right, the Kent analogy wasn't really accurate because it wasn't like he had a fluke year, it was more that everyone in the league seemed to all think that he was going to start to decline.

But with guys like Beltre, Loaiza, Pettitte, even if you feel like you're getting them a round or two later than you should based on their numbers from the previous year, in my experience it rarely ends up being worth it.
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Postby TheYanks04 » Thu Oct 12, 2006 11:42 pm

JustAnotherYanksFan wrote:
TheYanks04 wrote:
JustAnotherYanksFan wrote:
cordscords wrote:
TheYanks04 wrote:
cordscords wrote:
TheYanks04 wrote:I like to here why a lot of people think Dye is the next Beltran implosion waiting to happen. Don't get it. He has had 2 good years in a row. Even if his numbers recedes a little, he is still worth quite a bit.


Career year at age 32, injury history (I think he's done with that though) send out some worry signals for a guy who looks to be a 2nd round pick.



I do not think he is second round material. I doubt any experienced owner with some insight is picking him that high in 07. Still, I definitely see him going in the top 5 rounds. From the talk here though, you would think the guy is going to implode. There are people in the Draft and Keeper forum recommending keeping Sabathia over Dye as an example. Just seems to be a lot of negativity wrt to Dye an I just do not quite understand it.

I expect some falloff from this years numbers, but he should still be a solid perfomer barring injury. Even if he hit 280 35/100, he would still be a pretty valuable OF, esp in 5 OF deep leages. And I do not see his numers falling much below that barring an injury of course. And his injury was that flukeish broken leg he suffered in the post-season a few years ago. It is not like he is Cliff Floyd or even Chipper Jones at this point with one nagging thing after another.

Dye just seems to be getting very little respect while a guy like Liriano for example, who is injured and unproven is overhyped imo. Guys like Hanley Ramirez who as a rookie had a great year, are considered top round picks. All with a limited track record to say the least. We saw something like this with AJ last season, but even there AJ is still regarded as a sure fire round 5 or better pick even though everyone was expecting some drop off from 2005.

If you expect Dye to go round 2 I see the point to a degree. I just can't imagine anyone is going to buy into that.


There is always that 1 guy who latches on to last years stats, that 1 guy who's known for drafting all the boom or bust canidates, and that 1 guy who's an idiot who relies on the big board that has him ranked at #19. Chances are he's gone in the 2nd/3rd.

I'd rather take a safe pick that early. If he does end up being available in the 5th, I'd take a hard look at him.


Yeah, somehow those kinds of players that 11 out of 12 managers know had a fluke year never end up being good picks. In my main league this year (14 team keeper) Jeff Kent was still on the board in the 7th and even though I didn't value him particularly highly I figured I HAD to take him there. In the 9th round I saw Pettitte sitting there and even though I didn't value him very highly I thought I had to take him there. Granted those are only two examples, so I don't know if it's fair to form a rule just from those two, but in my experience it just never really pays off to draft those guys (Beltre after '04, Loaiza after '03, Pettitte after '05, etc.) where 11 out of 12 people in the league just know that they're going to bust, even if you feel like you're getting a bargain because you're getting them at a lower draft spot than you should based on last year's stats.

Basically, I wouldn't want to be the guy in my league spending the third or fourth round pick on Dye next year.



I dunno. I think that your Kent analogy is just off the mark there. Kent when he played put up OK numbers. In the 7th I can think of worse gambles. He got hurt and missed some tiime. Them's the breaks.

Pettitte I probably agree with you on. However, one could argue that in the 9th round, Pettitte was a fairly good buy...it just did not work out. It is not like Carlos Zambrano was likely to be around in the 9th. Smoltz might have been and that is the guy that you should have taken if he was around then. I know I grabbed Smoltz in the 7-9th in a lot of leagues.


I took Smoltz in the 6th. Anyway, I was surprised to see Kent and Pettitte around that late, and I'm not saying taking them in those spots ruined my season or anything. Also you're right, the Kent analogy wasn't really accurate because it wasn't like he had a fluke year, it was more that everyone in the league seemed to all think that he was going to start to decline.

But with guys like Beltre, Loaiza, Pettitte, even if you feel like you're getting them a round or two later than you should based on their numbers from the previous year, in my experience it rarely ends up being worth it.


I agree on Beltre and Loaiza. Beltre a LOT of people had pegged as a one year, contract year, roid induced fluke. I mean the neon lights on that one were about as bright as they come. Loaiza was just fluky. People who go for guys that do sudden and sharp 180's are asking for it imo I agree.

Pettitte, while I agree with you is someone I had serious doubts about also, if you got him in the 9th round of a 14 team league (130 something overall?) I really can't see how you could not take the chance. Like any mid-tier pitcher, it comes down to getting lucky. I can't imagine the alternatives were any surer things at that point. Guys like this rarely cost you the league. They are deeper pick. It is the high round picks that are foolish that will destroy you. If a round 13 pick goes bust, it is not a big deal in most mixed leagues.
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Postby Lofunzo » Fri Oct 13, 2006 3:06 am

tinfoilxtouch wrote:Papelbon might not be that over-valued. In fact, he might be under-valued. We've all seen how well the kid can pitch. If they try starting him and it fails, they're just going to move him back into the pen. Getting someone with the best RP statline in baseball in the ~5th round (because of the injury) could be a steal.


But, fantasy-wise, we are talking value. How much value does a failed SP have?? You think that he goes from failed SP to a closer once aqain??

looptid wrote:Hafner's made steady gains each season as a professional. This year doesn't look like a fluke season to me, but just a continuation of an upward trend. He's as good a bet as any to repeat his performance next year. If only he would have gotten one more start at first before injuring his hand... then he would have been 1B eligible in Yahoo leagues next season.


Agreed but that's really early for the UTIL slot.

Pogotheostrich wrote:
Amazinz wrote:Agreed. Maybe he doesn't hit 45 HR again but the guy is basically a shoe-in for .300/30/100/100.


Shhhhh! Will you guys cut it out. How do you expect me to get him in the 3rd round again?


I got him in the 8th in a keeper. Wright in the 9th. Of course this league started a few years ago. ;-)
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Postby Yoda » Fri Oct 13, 2006 10:33 am

Lofunzo wrote:
tinfoilxtouch wrote:
looptid wrote:Hafner's made steady gains each season as a professional. This year doesn't look like a fluke season to me, but just a continuation of an upward trend. He's as good a bet as any to repeat his performance next year. If only he would have gotten one more start at first before injuring his hand... then he would have been 1B eligible in Yahoo leagues next season.


Agreed but that's really early for the UTIL slot.


It doesn't matter what position he plays as long as he can be in the starting lineup. Having Hafner giving you .300-40-100-100 from the UTIL slot is still a great advantage compared to anything else you will get from there.
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Postby Mugrila » Sat Oct 14, 2006 12:24 am

Yoda wrote:
Lofunzo wrote:
tinfoilxtouch wrote:
looptid wrote:Hafner's made steady gains each season as a professional. This year doesn't look like a fluke season to me, but just a continuation of an upward trend. He's as good a bet as any to repeat his performance next year. If only he would have gotten one more start at first before injuring his hand... then he would have been 1B eligible in Yahoo leagues next season.


Agreed but that's really early for the UTIL slot.


It doesn't matter what position he plays as long as he can be in the starting lineup. Having Hafner giving you .300-40-100-100 from the UTIL slot is still a great advantage compared to anything else you will get from there.


I agree, it's not really a bad idea to take him even if he takes up the util spot. Maybe drops a spot or two, but you get the production no matter where he is. Its just slightly annoying.
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Postby Secret Avatar » Sun Oct 15, 2006 4:13 pm

Lots of talk about Howard, Dye, Liriano, and Delmon.

I personally think Howard and Dye will be the two of the most overrated next year. I think both are likely to drop 25 points (or more) in BA and 15 HR or so, with corresponding drops in runs and RBI. That will still leave them with very nice numbers but they'll be bid on as if they will repeat or close to it, and I don't see that happening.

The value of Liriano and Delmon will depend on whether its a keeper league (and obviously on Liriano's health).

Delmon might not set the world on fire next season but I find it hard to believe he won't post at least 275-15-20 (my personal projections are a bit higher, at something like 285-17-25). Those are not spectacular numbers, but in a keeper league it's probably worth overpaying for those numbers in 2007 for the promise of locking him in for 2008 and beyond, when I believe he'll take off. And you never know, he could end up one of those rare rookies who explode right off the bat and deliver exceptional numbers in 2007.

Liriano is the same way. IF healthy -- a big if at this point -- I doubt he'll post anything worse than 14 wins, 4.0 ERA, 1.3 WHIP, and 175 K. Again, those would be solid but not spectacular numbers in 2007, but his ceiling is as high as Johan's and perhaps even a bit higher. In a keeper league, its worth the extra bid price to lock him in. And, like Delmon, he could post some spectacular numbers even in 2007 (if healthy).
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Postby TB13 » Wed Oct 18, 2006 1:24 pm

Yoda wrote:It doesn't matter what position he plays as long as he can be in the starting lineup. Having Hafner giving you .300-40-100-100 from the UTIL slot is still a great advantage compared to anything else you will get from there.

I have to agree. Who cares where he qualfies, as long as he is putting up monster numbers?
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