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Guys who may be over-valued next year

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Postby Scoots#5 » Mon Sep 18, 2006 5:11 am

well papelbon and dye as has been mentioned is no surprise.. but what about the rookie guys like delmon young...?

anyone remember the guy in their league this year who took king felix in the second round (i'd almost guarante this happened in 80 % of leagues) how 'd that work out???... i see a lot of hype about him and i'm sure he'll be great - but he'll go too early.

i also like mauer and utley as overvalued guys... catchers should never go high and utley is on the way down - uggla will be as good as utley next year - so will rickie weeks. (especially relative to where you can get them in the draft...)
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Postby Scoots#5 » Mon Sep 18, 2006 5:14 am

well papelbon and dye as has been mentioned is no surprise.. but what about the rookie guys like delmon young...?

anyone remember the guy in their league this year who took king felix in the second round (i'd almost guarante this happened in 80 % of leagues) how 'd that work out???... i see a lot of hype about him and i'm sure he'll be great - but he'll go too early.

i also like mauer and utley as overvalued guys... catchers should never go high and utley is on the way down - uggla will be as good as utley next year - so will rickie weeks. (especially relative to where you can get them in the draft...)
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Postby Scoots#5 » Mon Sep 18, 2006 5:14 am

well papelbon and dye as has been mentioned is no surprise.. but what about the rookie guys like delmon young...?

anyone remember the guy in their league this year who took king felix in the second round (i'd almost guarante this happened in 80 % of leagues) how 'd that work out???... i see a lot of hype about him and i'm sure he'll be great - but he'll go too early.

i also like mauer and utley as overvalued guys... catchers should never go high and utley is on the way down - uggla will be as good as utley next year - so will rickie weeks. (especially relative to where you can get them in the draft...)
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Postby Laean » Mon Sep 18, 2006 5:58 am

Scoots#5 wrote:well papelbon and dye as has been mentioned is no surprise.. but what about the rookie guys like delmon young...?

anyone remember the guy in their league this year who took king felix in the second round (i'd almost guarante this happened in 80 % of leagues) how 'd that work out???... i see a lot of hype about him and i'm sure he'll be great - but he'll go too early.

i also like mauer and utley as overvalued guys... catchers should never go high and utley is on the way down - uggla will be as good as utley next year - so will rickie weeks. (especially relative to where you can get them in the draft...)


i don't think anyone took felix in the 2nd round. some people were saying he shouldn't be taken even in the 5th round, and some were saying he's worth taking in the 5th. no one compared him to carpenter or some other 2nd round pitcher if i remember.

i kind of agree with you on mauer.

how is utley on the way down?
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Postby tinfoilxtouch » Mon Sep 18, 2006 6:08 am

Papelbon might not be that over-valued. In fact, he might be under-valued. We've all seen how well the kid can pitch. If they try starting him and it fails, they're just going to move him back into the pen. Getting someone with the best RP statline in baseball in the ~5th round (because of the injury) could be a steal.

People who WILL be over-valued:

Dye- Can you say Beltre? This is a fluke year if I've ever seen one.

Liriano- He pitched well starting for 1/3 of a season and got hurt three times. You could have someone with just as much upside like Cain much cheaper.

Howard- Every season, some young 1b comes along and posts huge numbers. When you can get quality guys in round 5, I'm not taking anyone top-5 unless it's Ortiz or Pujols.

Mauer will go WAY too early, just like every other quality catcher always does. Until someone like Piazza comes back around, you can't justify drafting 15 HR 10 SB that early.
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Postby brewcrew4you » Mon Sep 18, 2006 9:32 am

Laean wrote:hooligan, i agree with all except david wright. even in a deep position, 100+ 30+ 110+ 15+ .300+ is worth first round. i mean, no one goes "well ortiz is good, but 1b is real deep, so i'll pass and draft utley" in the first round.



Um, Wright has never hit 30 homers, or scored 100 runs in a season yet, and unless he goes on a tear these next two weeks, won't this season.


Ortiz, on the other hand, has put up vastly superior numbers to Mr. Wright.
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Postby 1337_Dude » Mon Sep 18, 2006 10:24 am

I think a lot of the rookie pitchers/hitters will be taken way to early.
Papelbon
Joe Mauer
Felix Hernandez (I just don't trust him, but people tend to over reach on potential.)

Dye will be overvalued if he goes in the first few rounds, any later and I think it's spot on. I don't see why he wouldn't be considered a top 3-4 round talent. 100/30/100 is well within his reach next year.
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Postby Yoda » Mon Sep 18, 2006 10:39 am

brewcrew4you wrote:
Laean wrote:hooligan, i agree with all except david wright. even in a deep position, 100+ 30+ 110+ 15+ .300+ is worth first round. i mean, no one goes "well ortiz is good, but 1b is real deep, so i'll pass and draft utley" in the first round.



Um, Wright has never hit 30 homers, or scored 100 runs in a season yet, and unless he goes on a tear these next two weeks, won't this season.


Ortiz, on the other hand, has put up vastly superior numbers to Mr. Wright.


Well, to be fair, Wright is only 23. His power is definitely there and he should easily hit 30+ every year. Plus he was on pace to hit well over that this season before the HR Derby sapped his power for the rest of the year.

While I agree Ortiz should put up better numbers, Wright is definitely worth a 1-2 round pick.
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Postby CBV » Mon Sep 18, 2006 11:30 am

anyone remember the guy in their league this year who took king felix in the second round (i'd almost guarante this happened in 80 % of leagues) how 'd that work out???... [/b]i see a lot of hype about him and i'm sure he'll be great - but he'll go too early.


hah i just mentioned this in the delmon young thread. the guy in my 18 teamer drafted him in the 2nd round, and i called it right there on draft day, that it would kill his season. he ended up in 13th place.

since everyone is doing star players who will be overvalued, here are some mid level overachievers who had good years this year, but need to be avoided next..

overvalued guys in '07

Vizquel - hitting 300 with 25 sb's - i think that alot of people will draft him too high, he will hit 265 with 13-18 sb's next year and wont even warrant a roster spot. and he will be turning 40 next year ;-)

Eric Byrnes - '06 25hr/75rbi/24sb. he will not repeat this performance and wont warrant a roster spot either (maybe only in deep leagues) previous career high in sb's was 17 in '04.

Orlando Hudson - .292 15hr 70rbi. another arizona player who wont come close to this kind of production next year

Chuck James - 10-3 3.33era 1.19 whip. another one of these rookie starting pitchers who has excelled in '06. look for a sophmore slump, ten wins would be a huge surprise next season.

Alex Rios - i think alot of people are going to be targeting him because of his 3 month hot streak this year. he will go way to high in drafts and will only be serviceable as a bench outfielder.

just a few i could think of...
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Postby dyuen87 » Mon Sep 18, 2006 11:38 am

I hate to say it because im a Wright owner, but David Wright has looked absolutely terrible in the second half. His average is still there at .295, but the HRs and RBI totals have completely fallen off the map. Here are the splits:

Pre All-Star game:
.316 20 HRs 74 RBIs OPS: .961

Post All-Star game:
.295 4 HRs 36 RBIs OPS: .829

It may be that he has no protection behind him, but i hope it's not another Bobby Abreu case here. :-o
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