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Guys who may be over-valued next year

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Guys who may be over-valued next year

Postby hooligan1 » Sun Sep 17, 2006 1:57 pm

Now here are a few big-name players who could wind up being a tad over-valued in drafts next year.

Dye: MVP-caliber 06, almost certain to not repeat performance

Liriano: everyone's darling will be hard to resist if "healthy" in 07

Wright: believe it or not..... 3B is really deep, he's going to go too high

Andruw: 05 career year, always seems to go higher than he should

Papelbon: wont be closing, who knows what he does as a starter?

Verlander/Hamels/Weaver/Cain/et al: all these guys have a good chance of dropping off for next season; they'll all most likely go too high
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Postby seniorpaul » Sun Sep 17, 2006 3:56 pm

Delmon Young - Has been great since his call up, but nobody knows what he'll doing over the grind of an entire season. I predict he'll get drafted a lot higher than he probably should in drafts next season.

Ryan Howard - The kid is awesome, but people are already talking about if he should be the #1 pick next season. Thats just too high for me.

Jon Papelbon - as said before, nobody knows if he's going to start of close. He'll probably be going higher than he should.

I think a lot of the rookies (and there were A LOT of them this year) will probably be taken higher than they should.
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Postby Yoda » Sun Sep 17, 2006 5:05 pm

Soriano, Reyes, Dye, Morneau, Holliday, H.Ramirez, Atkins, Dunn (as usual)...

Papelbon, Liriano, Arroyo, Bonderman, Bedard, Josh Johnson...
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Postby BigZ38 » Sun Sep 17, 2006 5:14 pm

Delmon Young - I think that in rankings for snake drafts he will be rated in the top 75, which means he is a top 6 round pick. He's come up and been on fire but I think he will be next years felix.
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Postby The Artful Dodger » Sun Sep 17, 2006 5:41 pm

Jermaine Dye will be obviously overvalued. You sure don't want to wind up with him if you choose to autodraft next year. It's going to be interesting where Frank Thomas winds up too as he is enjoying a comeback campaign, but of course, he has an iffy health history.

As for Liriano, his value will hinge solely on his health and the timetable on him making an impact when healthy.

I'd also toss in Josh Johnson. He has been adept in escaping jams for the most part this season, but I think the bottom falls out on him. I'd also toss in Bedard, who has been relatively unscathed as far as health goes this year, but it would be interesting to see if he can hold up again for a second year in a row.

Hanley Ramirez could be a 4th rounder by the stat line he has posted. Papelbon's value takes quite a hit if he cracks the '07 rotation, but some folks will be a homer for him and believe that his closer success will translate into starting success, a la John Smoltz.

I don't think Howard will be overvalued if he's a top 10 overall draft pick (certainly not a #1), but I'd still take Hafner and Ortiz over him.

I'm really feeling iffy about Reyes being a first rounder. Reasonably, he's an early 2nd rounder, but I'm not drinking the Kool-Aid that the kid is a 20 HR, 60 SB type yet.
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Postby OneLoveBoomer » Sun Sep 17, 2006 11:21 pm

I like to think of "overvalued" as meaning guys I would refuse to take where they'll commonly be drafted at. As such:

R. Howard
D. Wright
J. Mauer
J. Dye
C. Utley
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Postby Havok1517 » Sun Sep 17, 2006 11:41 pm

All Marlin pitchers.

Wang

Suppan & Marquis (since I don't think they play for the Cards)

Mike Cameron

Soriano

Lorretta

Grundz

Pap (for sure)

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Postby The Big Train » Mon Sep 18, 2006 12:17 am

My guess is that McCann will be viewed as overvalued by some if the batting average ends up fairly high. I think he's the real deal so I'm hoping he falls to me if I'm guessing correctly.

My big question mark is Bill Hall. Is he legit 30-35 HR power for the SS position?

Mark Teahen?
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Postby Laean » Mon Sep 18, 2006 12:29 am

hooligan, i agree with all except david wright. even in a deep position, 100+ 30+ 110+ 15+ .300+ is worth first round. i mean, no one goes "well ortiz is good, but 1b is real deep, so i'll pass and draft utley" in the first round.

someone already said soriano, but that's my vote too. he'll go in the first round, but should go in the 2nd.

howard is going to be drafted too early only if he's like top 3 or something. mid to late first round seems alright to me.

carlos lee was in danger of being overrated next year, but remembered who he was in the 2nd half.

jose reyes, maybe. i say maybe because i do think he's talented, but for him to justify where he'll probably go next season (late 1st round), he'll need to maintain the sudden surge of power he showed this year (somewhere around 15+ hrs and 45+ sbs - carl crawford territory). if he ends up regressing in power and hits about 8 homers and steals 50 bases, you just got yourself basically ichiro in the 1st round. (i know reyes will steal more, but i'm saying ichiro because their values will be the same due to ichiro's probably higher avg.)
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Postby thedude » Mon Sep 18, 2006 12:41 am

Soriano, Howard, Jeter (if he wins the MVP), Wright, Beltran, Dye and Frank Thomas
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