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2007 Biggest Impact prospects....

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Postby Havok1517 » Sat Nov 04, 2006 8:37 pm

shortsavage wrote:Ha, I forgot Delmon Young.


Havok, is your list just a top 50 prospect list for 2007?

Like you said, it's not up to date on rookie status (Kendrick, Milledge, Marte...one at bat away, and Quentin), but other than that it looks pretty good.

I just have to ask two questions. Did Yovani Gallardo run over your puppy? And did Gio Gonzalez throw at his head to avenge your puppy?


LOL, no, that was the list of prospects that were compiled in the last community prospect rankings I took part in on Sickel's website so its majority rule. The people there, myself included, are actually doing a new one up to 100 that should be done before the start of the 2007 season. I just copied and pasted it quickly and haven't been to the Cafe Minor League site in awhile. I invite all to participate.

http://www.minorleagueball.com/

Rookie Status:
A player shall be considered a rookie unless, during a previous season or seasons, he has (a) exceeded 130 at-bats or 50 innings pitched in the Major Leagues; or (b) accumulated more than 45 days on the active roster of a Major League club or clubs during the period of 25-player limit (excluding time in the military service and time on the disabled list). MLB.COM
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Postby shortsavage » Sat Nov 04, 2006 9:40 pm

quiksilver wrote:Two things...

Why not allow him time to better his changeup? He's starting to learn not to rely on his slider to be his big out pitch, but instead steadily trying to improve the change to effectively go along with the fastball. I'm just really not convinced that Hughes would be successful if put into the rotation at the start of the season.

Also, the other thing, have you heard of Brien Taylor? ;-)


Yes...and how does Taylor have anything to do with Hughes?
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Postby Koby Schellenger » Sat Nov 04, 2006 11:03 pm

I have to disagree with Hughes and Maybin being impact players (fantasy wise) next season. Maybin is too young and too much of a free swinger to be called up next year for a significant period. Hughes needs more time to develop his third pitch and work on varying speeds a little better. It would be very unwise for the Yankees to bring him up at the start of the season. New York is a very tough place to pitch and has typically caused pitchers, even great pitchers, to suffer for one reason or another. There have been plenty of cases of pitchers who have been called up too early only to see their demise. There are plenty of success stories with pitchers who have been helped along with pitch counts, inning limits etc. He still struggles a bit with walks and needs to get that under control before he can be a bona fide realization of his talent. If you see a game he pitches in, or even look at box scores, you'll see that he rarely pitched more than 6 innings because he doesn't have the stamina to throw more than that. He needs more time to build endurance on his arm so he can maintain velocity and control all the way through October.
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Postby shortsavage » Sun Nov 05, 2006 3:42 pm

Koby,

If you read about Hughes, you'd realize that the Yankees kept him on a strict pitch count because they wanted to be careful with him (not because he wasn't capable of throwing more pitches)...kind of voids your post.
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Postby Koby Schellenger » Sun Nov 05, 2006 3:46 pm

shortsavage wrote:Koby,

If you read about Hughes, you'd realize that the Yankees kept him on a strict pitch count because they want to be careful with him...kind of voids your post.


If they want to be careful with him why would the start him off in the big leagues?

Also, it doesn't void my point. If verifies it. In the games Hughes was throwing more than 7 innings and reaching 90+ pitch counts his velocity dropped fast. His control became non-existant. Thus, the Yankees sent down an order for him to be monitored carefully and issued the strict pitch count which increased slightly as the year went on and leveled off in August when he reported more tiredness in his arm.
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Postby shortsavage » Sun Nov 05, 2006 3:56 pm

Do you have any data or references to back up that his velocity dipped and control left as he tired?
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Postby Koby Schellenger » Sun Nov 05, 2006 4:02 pm

shortsavage wrote:Do you have any data or references to back up that his velocity dipped and control left as he tired?


I go to plenty of games and I bring my radar gun and I record these things. If you actually watch him pitch you'd see that there is a point at which he loses "it." That's very common among young pitchers because they simply don't have the experience logging many innings and certainly don't have the experience with high pitch counts. This is even more prevelant among high school pitchers. It takes time to work the arm to be able to throw 90 or 100 pitches with the same effecitveness as pitch #50 or #60.
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Postby SAFLA » Mon Nov 06, 2006 1:46 pm

Why don't more teams use the Oriole plan (pitch out of the pen)? The Twins had success doing this with Santana and Liriano. Granted, if a prospective pitcher just needs a few starts (4th or 5th starter) before May, AAA is probably the place.
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Postby j_d_mcnugent » Mon Nov 06, 2006 2:57 pm

SAFLA wrote:Why don't more teams use the Oriole plan (pitch out of the pen)? The Twins had success doing this with Santana and Liriano. Granted, if a prospective pitcher just needs a few starts (4th or 5th starter) before May, AAA is probably the place.


i dont know if thats really proven to be a safer and more effective method. liriano still got hurt. santana first started out in the pen because he was a rule 5 pick that was too raw to start.

the objective is to gradually increase the amount of stress/innings that are put on the arm. there is more than one way to do that. you can do that by spending some time in the pen. you can do that with pitch counts and innings caps.

if you put people in the pen you have to worry about whether they can handle pitching consecutive days. you have to give them several starts to get their arm strength back. the candidate also has to have his pitches well developed. its harder to work on things when you are in the pen. some relief prospects spend time as starters so they can have more innings to work on their stuff. its just not a one size fits all kind of approach. finally, you still have no idea whether the player can handle 180-200 ip the following year.

rather than start someone in the pen for the first half of the season and then transition to starter i think it might be easier for a pitcher to be a starter for a half/two thirds season in the minors and then get his feet wet in the bullpen with the big league club for the rest of the year. the cards did this with dan haren in 2004. it avoids the problem of having to build up your arm strength mid season while still limiting innings/pitches.
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Postby Koby Schellenger » Mon Nov 06, 2006 7:33 pm

SAFLA wrote:Why don't more teams use the Oriole plan (pitch out of the pen)? The Twins had success doing this with Santana and Liriano. Granted, if a prospective pitcher just needs a few starts (4th or 5th starter) before May, AAA is probably the place.


I think there are two reasons.

First, throwing out of the bullpen is different in nature than starting every 5 days. The rest and daily routine is different and doesn't suit every pitcher. It's harder to build arm strength and endurance on shorter, random appearances than by regimented, lengthy starts.

Second, the effectiveness of this model is questionable. The O's don't exactly have a series of great guys who were brought up this way. As mentioned previously, the Twins did it with guys with injury concern or out of necessity. They aren't doing it with Garza and likely won't do it with Slowey either. Yet they will probably be effective. Instead, I think teams are starting pitchers on more strict innings/pitch counts at lower levels and slowly building that endurance and strength so that by the time they reach the major league level they will be able to endure 6 innings and 90 pitches with the same effectiveness at pitch 90 as pitch 1.
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