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Chris Lubanski or Jacoby Ellsbury?

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Postby NatsFan10 » Thu Sep 21, 2006 1:53 pm

FYI, interesting article from BP today about Lubanski:

http://www.baseballprospectus.com/artic ... 973ce70c44
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Postby Cleveland Steamers » Thu Sep 21, 2006 2:32 pm

NatsFan10 wrote:
shortsavage wrote:
NatsFan10 wrote:The fact that Ellsbury may or may not be closer to the ML shouldn't really have much bearing on each player's prospect status.


I disagree.

Prospect status is based on a player's potential and how likely he is to achieve that potential. So, a guy who is closer to the big leagues has a higher potential of achieving his potential than someone who is further, thus improving his prospect status.

How close a guy is to the majors shouldn't be your number one evaluation criterion, but it serves as a pretty nice tie-breaker if two guys are close.


That's fine, but I think most scouting mavens would disagree with you. It really depends on how you evaluate prospects, but I think most people would take the guy with higher potential over the guy closest to the majors.

If you highly value who is closer to the majors, you're essentially valuing older players over younger ones. Why would Lubanski be closer to the majors than Ellsbury right now when Ellsbury is much older? That makes no sense, and IMO it shouldn't be an overriding factor when evaluating prospects.


You just take it into consideration. I dont let it affect my rankings enough to really change a top 50 or 100. Older players arent necessarily closer to the majors than young players. Many systems skip over Triple-A alltogether and bring up young players from their Double-A system. A good prospect is a good prospect, if he is closer to the Majors than someone that is equal but has less chance at the majors, then that would be my deciding factor.
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Postby shortsavage » Thu Sep 21, 2006 2:33 pm

NatsFan10 wrote:FYI, interesting article from BP today about Lubanski:

http://www.baseballprospectus.com/artic ... 973ce70c44


Very well written intro.

I'm very close to becoming a BA and BP subcriber. Is that allowed?
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Postby thedude » Fri Sep 22, 2006 2:05 pm

NatsFan10 wrote:
shortsavage wrote:
NatsFan10 wrote:The fact that Ellsbury may or may not be closer to the ML shouldn't really have much bearing on each player's prospect status.


I disagree.

Prospect status is based on a player's potential and how likely he is to achieve that potential. So, a guy who is closer to the big leagues has a higher potential of achieving his potential than someone who is further, thus improving his prospect status.

How close a guy is to the majors shouldn't be your number one evaluation criterion, but it serves as a pretty nice tie-breaker if two guys are close.


That's fine, but I think most scouting mavens would disagree with you. It really depends on how you evaluate prospects, but I think most people would take the guy with higher potential over the guy closest to the majors.

If you highly value who is closer to the majors, you're essentially valuing older players over younger ones. Why would Lubanski be closer to the majors than Ellsbury right now when Ellsbury is much older? That makes no sense, and IMO it shouldn't be an overriding factor when evaluating prospects.


It is not an overwhelming factor, but it is a factor. And the prospect crowd do take it into account. Take Philip Hughes. Before 2006 he was ranked low on everyone's prospect list because he was far away from the majors (despite having a very fine year).

If someone guys who are closer to the majors have more value because there is less chance of them flaming out. You don't base your ranking on any single factor but on many factors.
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Postby ukjohn » Tue Oct 03, 2006 11:52 am

I see Ellsbury batting leadoff for the Red Sox in 2 years. Can't get much more fantasy value than that, right?

Lubanski is not going to be a great fantasy guy. Probably more like an average backup
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Postby NatsFan10 » Tue Oct 03, 2006 11:14 pm

ukjohn wrote:I see Ellsbury batting leadoff for the Red Sox in 2 years. Can't get much more fantasy value than that, right?

Lubanski is not going to be a great fantasy guy. Probably more like an average backup


I was under the impression we were judging these prospects based on real life, not fantasy.
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Postby shortsavage » Wed Oct 04, 2006 2:09 am

NatsFan10 wrote:
ukjohn wrote:I see Ellsbury batting leadoff for the Red Sox in 2 years. Can't get much more fantasy value than that, right?

Lubanski is not going to be a great fantasy guy. Probably more like an average backup


I was under the impression we were judging these prospects based on real life, not fantasy.


Eh, they are pretty similar.
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Postby Cleveland Steamers » Wed Oct 04, 2006 2:38 am

I see Ellsbury as a total bust. I guess thats just a feeling though...
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Postby rhd » Wed Oct 04, 2006 7:05 pm

I like Lubanski more than most seem to. But I still have him 30 slots below Ellsbury on my list. I dont see Ellsbury as an all-star, but he appears slated to be at least a MLB regular. Lubanski might become a regular also, but w him it appears less certain. Ellsbury almost certainly will be on BA's Top 100, whereas Lubanski most likely will not be. Ellsbury's SBs gives him added value as a roto player, also.
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Postby NatsFan10 » Thu Oct 05, 2006 7:54 am

shortsavage wrote:
NatsFan10 wrote:
ukjohn wrote:I see Ellsbury batting leadoff for the Red Sox in 2 years. Can't get much more fantasy value than that, right?

Lubanski is not going to be a great fantasy guy. Probably more like an average backup


I was under the impression we were judging these prospects based on real life, not fantasy.


Eh, they are pretty similar.


Not really, especially when someone is giving the nod to Ellsbury simply because he may leadoff for the Red Sox. If we're evaluating their real life abilities, we would only focus on the player.
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