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Chris Lubanski or Jacoby Ellsbury?

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Postby shortsavage » Wed Sep 20, 2006 2:02 pm

The dude abides. He doesn't go out and TRY to unlock the gyroball.
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Postby Cleveland Steamers » Wed Sep 20, 2006 2:30 pm

ukjohn wrote:
Cleveland Steamers wrote:Id go Rasmus over the two without question right now.


:-/


Im confused. You disagree? Rasmus has improved his plate discipline at each level and should start in high-A and work into more than a half season at Double-A. Next season should really be telling on whether or not Rasmus has the potential of being an above average Major League outfielder in the future. He and Lubanski are similar but for overall upside, I'd take Rasmus.
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Postby NatsFan10 » Wed Sep 20, 2006 5:44 pm

thedude wrote:Ellsbury will very likely be leading off for the Red Sox by the start of 2008. Also struggled a little early on and then picked it up after july. Ellsbury (as any leadoff guy for the red sox) will have more value. In his prime look for .280-290 BA, a good amount of steals, and 100+ runs. Not a 1st round draft pick, but a solid player.


Eh, I think that's a little too simplistic to say that Ellsbury is a better prospect because he may end up leading off for the Red Sox some day.

At this point in time, the facts are that Lubanski is putting up better offensive numbers despite being 1 1/2 years younger. Would anyone argue with this?

Also, i'm not sure if we are talking strictly real life prospect status or also fantasy status, but Lubanski will have solid protection in a Royals lineup featuring Gordon, Teahen, Butler, Shealy, etc.
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Postby shortsavage » Wed Sep 20, 2006 9:46 pm

Cleveland Steamers wrote:Rasmus has improved his plate discipline at each level and should start in high-A and work into more than a half season at Double-A. Next season should really be telling on whether or not Rasmus has the potential of being an above average Major League outfielder in the future. He and Lubanski are similar but for overall upside, I'd take Rasmus.


Rasmus told me (interview will be up tonight) that he's hoping to start the season in Double-A Springfield next year.


P.S. I don't get what ukjohn meant either.
Last edited by shortsavage on Thu Sep 21, 2006 12:47 am, edited 2 times in total.
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Postby Cleveland Steamers » Thu Sep 21, 2006 12:31 am

Your interview link has a comma instead of a period...
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Postby thedude » Thu Sep 21, 2006 1:14 am

NatsFan10 wrote:
thedude wrote:Ellsbury will very likely be leading off for the Red Sox by the start of 2008. Also struggled a little early on and then picked it up after july. Ellsbury (as any leadoff guy for the red sox) will have more value. In his prime look for .280-290 BA, a good amount of steals, and 100+ runs. Not a 1st round draft pick, but a solid player.


Eh, I think that's a little too simplistic to say that Ellsbury is a better prospect because he may end up leading off for the Red Sox some day.

At this point in time, the facts are that Lubanski is putting up better offensive numbers despite being 1 1/2 years younger. Would anyone argue with this?

Also, i'm not sure if we are talking strictly real life prospect status or also fantasy status, but Lubanski will have solid protection in a Royals lineup featuring Gordon, Teahen, Butler, Shealy, etc.


Lubanski seems to be achieving some of the potenial that made him a first round pick in 2003. However he has been very incostistant. Over the last 2 years he has either been very hot or very cold. Once he becomes more consistant he he should see success. However the streakyness could also be a problem when starts facing tougher competion (he gets cold can't pull out of it and starts to think to much causing more problems).

Ellsbury, on the other hand, is half a season away from the majors and has better plate discipline and is more of a stolen base threat, (he is also a better defensive center fielder than Coco Crisp). We have a pretty good idea what Ellsbury will produce, while Lubanski could still go in several directions.
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Postby NatsFan10 » Thu Sep 21, 2006 8:15 am

thedude wrote:
NatsFan10 wrote:
thedude wrote:Ellsbury will very likely be leading off for the Red Sox by the start of 2008. Also struggled a little early on and then picked it up after july. Ellsbury (as any leadoff guy for the red sox) will have more value. In his prime look for .280-290 BA, a good amount of steals, and 100+ runs. Not a 1st round draft pick, but a solid player.


Eh, I think that's a little too simplistic to say that Ellsbury is a better prospect because he may end up leading off for the Red Sox some day.

At this point in time, the facts are that Lubanski is putting up better offensive numbers despite being 1 1/2 years younger. Would anyone argue with this?

Also, i'm not sure if we are talking strictly real life prospect status or also fantasy status, but Lubanski will have solid protection in a Royals lineup featuring Gordon, Teahen, Butler, Shealy, etc.


Lubanski seems to be achieving some of the potenial that made him a first round pick in 2003. However he has been very incostistant. Over the last 2 years he has either been very hot or very cold. Once he becomes more consistant he he should see success. However the streakyness could also be a problem when starts facing tougher competion (he gets cold can't pull out of it and starts to think to much causing more problems).

Ellsbury, on the other hand, is half a season away from the majors and has better plate discipline and is more of a stolen base threat, (he is also a better defensive center fielder than Coco Crisp). We have a pretty good idea what Ellsbury will produce, while Lubanski could still go in several directions.


So now you're lowering Lubanski because he's a streaky hitter? Carlos Beltran is a notoriously streaky hitter, does he get demoted in your book too? I'm sorry, but you're ranking of these two players seems way too subjective IMO. Even with Lubanski's streakiness, he still ended the season with better offensive numbers than Ellsbury. In addition, he this while spending the entire season in AA, while Ellsbury split time between High A and AA, even though he is older than Lubanski.

The fact that Ellsbury may or may not be closer to the ML shouldn't really have much bearing on each player's prospect status. I already noted that Ellsbury has better plate discipline and is more of a stolen base threat, but Lubanski hits for much more power and is not exactly a lumbering oaf on the base paths.
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Postby shortsavage » Thu Sep 21, 2006 10:00 am

NatsFan10 wrote:The fact that Ellsbury may or may not be closer to the ML shouldn't really have much bearing on each player's prospect status.


I disagree.

Prospect status is based on a player's potential and how likely he is to achieve that potential. So, a guy who is closer to the big leagues has a higher potential of achieving his potential than someone who is further, thus improving his prospect status.

How close a guy is to the majors shouldn't be your number one evaluation criterion, but it serves as a pretty nice tie-breaker if two guys are close.
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Postby Cleveland Steamers » Thu Sep 21, 2006 12:20 pm

shortsavage wrote:
NatsFan10 wrote:The fact that Ellsbury may or may not be closer to the ML shouldn't really have much bearing on each player's prospect status.


I disagree.

Prospect status is based on a player's potential and how likely he is to achieve that potential. So, a guy who is closer to the big leagues has a higher potential of achieving his potential than someone who is further, thus improving his prospect status.

How close a guy is to the majors shouldn't be your number one evaluation criterion, but it serves as a pretty nice tie-breaker if two guys are close.


That is true but I still take Lubanski over Ellsbury.
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Postby NatsFan10 » Thu Sep 21, 2006 1:51 pm

shortsavage wrote:
NatsFan10 wrote:The fact that Ellsbury may or may not be closer to the ML shouldn't really have much bearing on each player's prospect status.


I disagree.

Prospect status is based on a player's potential and how likely he is to achieve that potential. So, a guy who is closer to the big leagues has a higher potential of achieving his potential than someone who is further, thus improving his prospect status.

How close a guy is to the majors shouldn't be your number one evaluation criterion, but it serves as a pretty nice tie-breaker if two guys are close.


That's fine, but I think most scouting mavens would disagree with you. It really depends on how you evaluate prospects, but I think most people would take the guy with higher potential over the guy closest to the majors.

If you highly value who is closer to the majors, you're essentially valuing older players over younger ones. Why would Lubanski be closer to the majors than Ellsbury right now when Ellsbury is much older? That makes no sense, and IMO it shouldn't be an overriding factor when evaluating prospects.
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